Member Info for adoubleuk

Cocopops (that was a breakfast cerial: does it still carry the same name?),

"Looking forward to next week. First there will be an extremely positive RNS (IMHO), then there will be barrage of news articles on how important this find is to Hurricane and to West of Shetland fractured basement exploration in general. Days after there will be a slew of financial services companies upgrading their targets for Hurricane "

Your forgetting the interim report coming out on the 20th, which we've been told will have more detail about the EPS.

Lots of news in store this month.

sheltie,

" got my bottle of babycham on ice too"

Good grief. Do they still make Babycham? (cf 'Treets discussion')

Good RNS this morning. Or more to the point , good Monday update from ADX. I'm impressed by that company: their reports are clear, apparently complete, and factual.

Plus also their operational decision-making seems robust. Discussions here a couple of days ago regarding testing the lower high-pressure zone are now superfluous, and the reasoning given for not pursuing the deepening are very wise. The pressures involved are not in themselves terribly high: 5500 psi or so. But they're VERY high for the shallow depths involved. When I read last week that they'd be going to a 1.97 SG mud weight, that immediately rang alarm bells. Anyone with drilling experience is quite aware that 1.97 mud equals operational nightmare!

But now after plugback of the 'problem zone' (secondary objective), they can go ahead with testing of the gas intervals (primary target) with no worries.

I suspect it'll be quite a while before they go taking another look at the deep zone, because it'll probably be expensive. Formations DO exist which are technically 'undrillable' with any reasonable margin of safety without using some very complicated and costly techniques: this may be one of them.

I'm looking forward to reading the forward plan for testing. It'll be a few weeks hence, though, as first they've got to move the drilling rig out, bring the workover rig in, set up for testing, and so on.

slipanchor,

Highly unlikely that testing is finished so soon. A few more days to go. However an integral and important part of testing are shutin periods to observe and record pressure build-up. During these times, boats can come alongside no problem.

Whoops!

I'd only seen the first photo, not the second one posted by Diego. Where the flame is quite visible, and there's less smoke.

We of course have to take it on trust that this picture is genuinely one taken yesterday of the TOL on Lincoln.

But I see no reason not to believe it, unless proof (coming from elsewhere) that it isn't is published by those who should rightly know.

Well, that's a nice photo (and bunch of posts) here to see on my phone after some driving and having my supper in a restaurant before... doing other things.

I have to believe the picture to be genuine. Because if it isn't some people on Twitter, Facebook, and even here, are going to be receiving some hate-mail!

Given the distance, it looks like a 'good-sized' flare!

Interesting to see the amount of smoke. Photo probably taken during 'cleanup', thus maybe partially affecting the 'clean burn' equipment on the burners, which I believe is mandatory fo flaring in 'European' waters.

Hopefully as time progresses over the weekend the 'spy' responsible for the pic will be able to see the flame, instead, even if it's quite a distance away.

I still remain dubious as to whether the company will issue an interim RNS on Monday, though could easily be proved wrong. Maybe just something on Twitter or Facebook confirming that flow-testing is in progress, and yes, the well is flowing hydrocarbons.

YinYang,

You posted this under the ongoing re:ADX thread, so because it was there, I was initially confused. But it didn't last long, because I realised you were inquiring about West Newton. So I've changed the header.

You asked:

"adoubleuk, why not announce the gas result for the few days they tested? Was this not possible, surely they could have a good indication on initial gas flow rate after 6 whole days."

I don't know why you addressed this to me in particular, because I'm obviously not the only oilfield poster on this site.

But if you want my opinion, here it is.

The answer lies in part of the company's announcement that you quoted, reading

'With the indication of a potentially significant oil column, the Extended Well Test ("EWT") has been temporarily suspended in order to review and revise the well test design to deliver the necessary test information to validate this important onshore resource'

It's become clear that West Newton has come as a bit of a surprise to everyone involved, and that there are no clear-cut distinctions between the 'gas zones' and those containing hydrocarbonfluids, either condensate or oil, or both. (Compare and contrast with Parta.) The very short duration of the test (and the rather smoky nature of the flare if those phos are genuine) suggests that no specific gas flowrate can yet be established without liquids being a significant part of the mix, as well. Hence the hiatus, and a bit of a rethink of the testing program.

Essentially, figures from the six day test are nothing but 'interim results', so what's the point in publishing those before a better way of gathering more specific data has been decided? The 'interim result' might turn out to be misleading, and WN migh turn out to be primarily an oilwell, rather than a gas well with some oil added in. The 'hints' published seem to point towards that.

I recommend patience...

Manwell02,

"Hey adoubleuk wrt your 1227 post I thought the plan is to run & cement a 5” liner so the 6” section will be isolated."

Good spot, and my oversight! You're correct. I went to the ADX documents, and although there's nothing in the text about it, the bottom part of the time / depth curve includes logging of the 6-1/4" section and running 5" liner.

Such a liner would provide a primary mechanical barrier, which after a DST and subsequent 'squeezing off' of the necessary perforations, and addition of a bridge plug with just a bit of cement dumped on top would provide sufficient regulatory isolation to then go ahead and test the upper gas zones safely, but still allowing for eventual re-entry of the lower stuff for production in the future, with a twin dual-zone completion. Maybe.

The thing is, though, the Time / Depth and operational well 'program' outlined by ADX (which is very comprehensive, by the way), only relates to operations ongoing, and (per the text) does not cover testing, which will no doubt come next.

So maybe I was a little bit wrong and over-cautious in my earlier post, but I'm not going to try and outguess the company as to how the testing will go, because that's obviously going to be dependent on what's found. But running a 5" liner will certainly make testing the lower zone more do-able.

Olderandwiser,

"adoubleuk, what's your view on Savp now?"

What an odd question, especially asked here.

Someone mentioned savp either on this BB or another, and it made me curious, so I went to check that company's SP, latest RNS's, and so on, just out of curiousity.

What's my view? Same old, same old. I dumped my holding immediately after the initial spike (at a very small profit) after the shares came out of a near 6-month suspension whenever it was back when. Four years ago?

The shares are now trading (after a recent rise) at about 10p less than what I sold for, and regarding news, I see no real material changes, so do not intend to buy back in again. Once bitten, twice shy.

You asked my opinion, mate, so there it is!

wasit10538,

"adoubleuk why do you think that they will P&A the lower section,is it because of the pressure at this depth necessitating a dedicated well?"

Essentially, yes, that's roughly my thinking. It's very rough, very much gut-feeling, and I could be wrong.

ADX intends to flow-test the gas sections found (currently cased-off), that we know. But to do so, this will mean completely isolating the new open-hole section and reducing the mud weight again before perforating the casing and running the DST. So it's axiomatic that the lower (high pressure) section, has to be tested first, if tested at all.

In itself, such a test could be problematic, I suspect, and quite expensive in terms of money and time. Open-hole, liquid hydrocarbons, also the reported presence of CO2. So because of such possible operational complexity and expense, and given the explorational 'secondary objective' nature of this 6" section, I feel that the company will be happy to just find out what's down there, and leave it at that.

The well's primary objective is to test the gas, evaluate its commercial validity (via flowtest), and if successful complete it as a producer. And (repeating myself), to do this, the lower zone must be 100% isolated from those above. And the simplest, cheapest, and most certain way of doing this will be to plug it back with cement, with probably a bridge-plug on top, set at the base of the casing. Then testing the gas (and ultimately producing it) can be done with no worries about what lies deeper.

The lower zone can always be re-entered by a subsequent well, specifically designed to test that zone and possibly produce it. The company will have had the time to fully analyse the data they're currently acquiring, and also work out the economic feasability, including possible profits coming from selling the gas from this and other subsequent wells.

The gas is the prize at Parta, oil is just icing on the cake. And here I reckon there's a difference with West Newton. At WN sure, the gas was the initial target, but if the oil is as plentiful as the snippets we're hearing are true, it's the oil which might turn out to be the cake itself.

All, this is just thinking on the run, my own opinion, which could always be proved incorrect!

rovers66,

"There is clearly remedial work to be undertaken to deal with the blow out section of the well - cement job, etc"

You've already had some good replies here about this. Essentially there's no 'remedial' work to be done. They were rather expecting the kick, were (obviously) well-prepared for it, so all's OK.

One thing does occur to me though, and that's that I don't anticipate ADX actually 'testing' this lower part of the well. Fully 'evaluating' it, sure, through logging, and possible core.

But then P&A that lower section before getting on to actual 'testing' of the gas zones already encountered.

Good to see some other 'techies' here, comments welcomed on this.

SotB,

"ADUK:: Go Play Poker.......You canna guess Hur !"

I've just finished playing poker in my habitual late-night online. Finished 'in the pay' but nothing to get excited about.

As to 'guessing HUR', there's one thing I HAVE come to learn about them is that they don't cut corners. (Notwithstanding not doing a wiper trip prior to running casing on WD, but I put that down to Petrofac.)

All I was trying to explain in my post are some very good reasons for not expecting a DST RNS tomorrow...

slipanchor,

"Does that put the RNS back to Mon Tues?"

I am personally not now anticipating an RNS tomorrow, so essentially, yes.

As others have pointed out, it's not good oilfield practice to initially 'open up a well' (or start a DST) at night, for a multitude of reasons.

But equally, no matter what state of readiness ones's in to do so, that doesn't mean the operation will start at the crack of dawn, either. Although it's customary for 'drill crew' to work 12-to-12 shifts, others (probably including the DST crew) are working 6-to-6. So get the shift-change out of the way. Plus their associated 'safety meetings'. Then the DSV has to get his Morning Report sent to town, probably have an early-morning phone call to discuss the report, there will (or should) be an 'all departments' meeting of assorted supervisors on the rig, and possibly a further conference call with town.

During routine day-to-day operations such as drilling, running casing, or logging, work doesn't stop because of these things. But a DST isn't a routine day-to-day operation. Furthermore, it's expensive, and requires a number of key personel to be present when it starts. So instead of trying to save a few thousand bucks, it's always better to delay for two or three hours, get the first-thing 'morning bu****it' out of the way, and then everyone can hit the job with their mind on just that, and focussing on it.

Things are a lot safer that way.

So assuming they didn't start flowing the well in the late afternoon today (and we've no reason to believe they have), there will be no 07:00 RNS about the DST.

And even if they start flowing the well at midday tomorrow, I don't see an afternoon RNS about it. Because what could it say? "We've just opened up the well on test"? No, that would be silly. They'd have no properly-established flowrate data to report, and anyway 'cleanup' might take a while.

Although this might seem to coincide with it, I don't subscribe to Wellwell's theory about 'orchestrating' the DST to start out of market hours. Because as many of us are now painfully aware, and have been for quite a while, Hurricane seems oblivious to (or rather doesn't care about) 'the market', or at least in terms of daily SP movement. So why should that change now?

Thus my reckoning of Monday for an RNS at the earliest. And maybe not even then. They've given no suggestion that a 'DST now underway' RNS will be released, whether (or not) a flare has been spotted.

HH,

"Winds currently 38 knots gusting 43 knots, and heave on the increase (approaching 1.5m), so if the SSTT hasn’t been landed out yet then the weather may cause a temporary delay."

Yes, agree. 'GapingFracture mentioned this, as well. But furthermore, even when the tree's down, you need a fairly clement forward-looking weather forcast, as well. A DST string (including SSTT, etc.) isn't something that can be quickly unlatched or left in a temporary 'safe' condition if a storm brews up.

Plus being even more prosaic, you've also got all the surface tree, flowlines and the rest of the gubbins. The rigfloor's a crowded place with both equipment and personel during DST operations, so you don't want too much relative movement.

Something else GF said:

"Post DST they going to pull it and run the permanent completion ready for tyingback to AM?"

Personally, I very much doubt it. Firstly, running a permanent completion is contingent on the DST being successful. So why make the capital expediture before the test result is known? I reckon they'll leave the well suspended (if successful), and come back in the future with a different rig to re-complete, just like on the two Lancaster producers.

miker444,

"aduk would you say that the high pressure (in the bigger picture) is a good thing, i.e indications of high gas volumes possibly sitting on top of liquid hyrocarbons?"

Sorry, but I wouldn't like to hazard a guess on that. Not enough info. I'll be waiting on a further press-release, just like everyone else!

GF,

"Wont be running one after.
Wouldve thought running one at all was a waste of time and money and added risk. They dont do squatin fractured reservoirs except tell you ehat drilling fluid you drilled with. They also add mecahnical risk and in a horizontal have to be run on TLC. F all of that"

I generally agree with your viewpoint. Nevertheless, MDT WAS run on WD, and AFTER the DST. Plus run on the first Lincoln well, also Halifax, and also the '7 wells' pilot hole. The latter is the one we know most about, and they got only 3 worthwhile pressure sample points out of (I think, would have to go back to the documents) 21 attempted. On might think that the company would have given up with MDT after that, but seemingly not.

IANAA,

"The pressure was just over half of the wellhead rating...seems a bit close for comfort to me. Obviously the pressure was significantly higher than anticipated."

No, that's no sweat. Anything above 85% rated pressure and one starts getting an itchy bum. Looks like all the planning was good. Also the fact that they managed to pull back to the casing shoe before increasing mud weight and killing the kick indicates a well-run operation.

mover123,

"....so getting back on-topic - any views re timing of news on DST?"

This week is relistic. Maybe partly depends on whether they run MDT before the DST, or afterwards, as on WD.

Surpised nobody's mentioned this little bit of media coverage in today's edition.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hurricane-oilfield-starts-with-14-000-barrels-a-day-bx3wz98ss

JayKay,

"Bit quiet around here, everyone else as engrossed in BBC parliment as me?"

'Engrossed' is maybe the wrong word. But strangely for someone who describes his political philosophy as 'rational anarchism' and hasn't cast a vote for any politician for 44 years, yes, I've got the TV news running, just to remain informed. As I did for thar 'referendum' thing, and also the US elections which the orange-haired person won.

Living in France, I'm frequently asked what I think of Br***t, to which my answer is that I don't. Though that's not entirely true, because with the ever-sinking Pound, the entire farce is eroding my own finances. But I try not to think too much about that, because there's nothing I can do about it., and it's depressing as heck.

Mind you, I'm not utterly glued to the TV screen, either, because that can be depressing as well. Live footage from the House of Commons generally strikes me as being on the same intellectual level as Love Island, but with more clothes and longer words.

Mind you, there are some other more interesting things on the box, as well, like the storm over the Bahamas and the young man who's gone blind because of his diet...