Member Info for Adieuk32

If everyone emails IR to see why they are letting the Shorters, rip the f_ck out of this then, please do. I have sent many emails, something is just not sitting right here. Something is going on here, every RNS Rahul releases is on the negative side, why do they want to keep the price down?

Why are the directors not buying at this price?

They are deliberately allowing this to crumble, but why?

Email IR Mathew.Evans@tullowoil.com

Let’s hope those shorting scum get burnt soon enough.

Gl all

Nice top up again with my annual bonus.

Ghana gas agreement will come into effect by year-end, no other option for the government.

Very quiet on Kenya, could be tomorrow, next week or next year, it will be decided one way, could catch us out.

I was wondering whether there was another reason for the delays, no rush to bring in a CFO or the failed Capricorn merger.

Could there be an interested party for the whole company?

Gl all

The topic of funding and financing for the energy industry was high on the agenda, alongside Ghana’s offshore plans for the Jubilee Field and the forthcoming contracts for the country’s liquefied natural gas projects.

https://www.myjoyonline.com/ghana-oil-gas-and-energy-summit-focuses-on-exploration-potential-and-latest-midstream-openings/

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Tullows-ratings-to-Caa1-negative-outlook--PR_471827

Rahul needs to pull something out of the bag, 4 weeks left to seal a deal- Kenya or Ghana, otherwise he’s gone.

Gl all

Let’s hope the licence gets updated for the Gas discovery.

https://www.businessghana.com/site/news/business/264663/Tullow-Oil-confirms-new-gas-reserves

Email to IR

Following on from the operations update, I didn't see any updates on the Ghana Gas Agreement, or any plans for the Guyana Field development?

At the end of October, last time I contacted Tullow, an operations update was not planned for November, what was the rush to get this update out? As nothing new, or anything of interest was released, just a down beat drilling performance on TEN? Are the Well design team struggling to process the technical data for Well Targets, as we haven't had much positive results on Guyana, Suriname or the Ten fields?

Why has Tullow not updated us on the progress/position of the Gas Agreement, which is due to be signed by year-end?

What happens if there isn't an agreement with the government? Will Tullow stop exporting the Gas? Can we market the wet gas to europe?

Why has it taken so long to discuss the AGM resolutions, with the major shareholders. The AGM was in June, and only updated the market last week? What was the point of this?

Kenya - Tullow have been looking at extending the review period, has a new date been agreed? Does the Board, still believe that this will be signed before the year-end.
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Finally it was disappointing that the CMD has been pushed back. Do we have a rough idea of the new date?

Look forward to hearing from you shortly.

Reply from IR

I have tried to answer your questions below:

Gas commercialisation in Ghana

Tullow has made good progress in our discussions with the Government of Ghana and we expect to submit heads of terms for a gas commercialisation agreement by the end of the year.

Guyana

Tullow continues to focus on unlocking value from the prospective resource base in Guyana, while seeking to mitigate capital exposure.

November Trading Update

Our yearly reporting schedule includes a November Trading Update. In 2022 it was on 16-Nov, in 2021 it was on 17-Nov. There was no November Trading Update in 2020 due to the Capital Markets Day held on 25-Nov.

TEN

On TEN, the two wells drilled in the Ntomme Riser Base area this year have been disappointing. The TEN Enhancement project is made-up of multiple components in a staged development over the coming years. JV continues to evaluate the results of these wells to optimise future drilling plans on the TEN fields.

AGM

With regards to the recent AGM release, we are required in accordance with the provisions of the 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code, to do so within six months of the AGM. Tullow has had frequent and broad engagement with shareholders during this time with regards to all topics including the resolutions.

Kenya

Progress is being made in Kenya. The process to secure a strategic partner and incorporate FCP comments ahead of Government approval continue to progress. No further dates have been published.

Capital Markets Update:
A new date for the Capital Markets Update is yet to be confirmed.

Gl All

Wouldn’t say 44k BOPD from Ten/Jubilee too bad.

Another 6k BOEPD will be added from end of year.

Free cash flow generated this year of $450 Million ($130 on BIR & $70 on law suit), leaving $250 at year-end.

Gearing below the bond holders 1.5x giving the board the opportunity to give a dividend.

Gl all

Why wasn’t there an update on the Ghana Gas Agreement in last weeks operational update?

Just over 5 weeks left this year, the agreement was due to be signed before year-end, adding 6k boepd to production.

Rahul needs to pull out some aces very soon, time is running out.

Gl all

The SP has increased, tells you it was a short closing.

Expecting a reduction in short disclosure tomorrow.

Don’t get caught out, No mention of the GHANA Gas Agreement, must be imminent.

Gl all

No mention of the deal?

FCF of $250 Million, Gearing below 1.5x.

Gl all

Update tomorrow.

Gl all

DYOR, but best estimate. Gives a general consensus’s of the current manipulation.

Tides change, good luck for this week

2015. 73,400BOPD. Debt $4Billion. SP £3.50 POO $37 Market Cap 5 Billion
2016. 71,700BOPD. Debt $4.8Billion. SP £1.60 POO $56 Market Cap 2.5 Billion
2017. 94,700BOPD. Debt $3.5Billion SP £2.60 POO $66 Market Cap 3.5 Billion
2018. 90,000BOPD. Debt $3.1Billion SP £2.30 POO $54 Market Cap 3 Billion
2019. 86,700BOPD. Debt $2.8Billion SP £2.00 POO $67 Market Cap 2.5 Billion
2020. 74,900BOPD. Debt $2.4Billion SP £0.60p POO $50 Market Cap 800 Million
2021. 59,200BOPD. Debt $2.1Billion SP £0.30p POO $77 Market Cap 400 Million
2022. 63,000BOPD. Debt$1.9Billion SP £0.48p POO $95 Market Cap 700 Million

Still think we are fairly priced??

Way undervalued, lets see what the next few weeks bring.

GL ALL

Last minute announcement on November Trading update for 16th November.

Also CMD changed to 12th December from the 7th December.

East Africa Oil Conference in Kenya on 15/16th of November, AFRICA oil Q3 results tomorrow.

Going to be an interesting run up to Xmas.

Gl all

Looking good for the gas agreement/expansion, to be on the good terms with the host nation.

Gl all

https://www.graphic.com.gh/business/business-news/bawumia-commends-tullow-ghana.html

https://eaogs.com/

Be a bit of a poor show, if the FDP hasn’t been agreed by the 15th.

GL ALL

Q.

Hi Matthew

Have we had the FDP extended again, due to yesterday’s deadline passing, without any signing ceremony.

On another note, Kosmos have given an update on Ghana, with Tens average production rates, which fall short of the year guidance.

Are we having some issues with the wells on TEN, or has this now been rectified?

A. As discussed previously, 6 November was not a deadline, but instead the Government set period for their review of the Field Development Plan (FDP). We have not provided a deadline with regards to the project and securing a strategic partner, but have instead stated confidence of progress to be made this year.



With regards to the TEN fields and as you will have seen in the Kosmos 3Q Results this morning the second riser base well (Nt11) encountered c.5m of net oil pay with poorer than expected reservoir quality. Therefore a collective decision not to complete the well was made and the JV Partners continue to evaluate the results from the two riser base wells to help define future drill plans. Our FY 2022 production guidance on TEN remains unchanged at c.13 kbopd.



As a listed company we are subject to certain disclosure obligations and we can confirm that we have disclosed all material information about the company and its operational and financial performance in line with those requirements. We will update the market about further progress the company has made before the end of the year.

Looks like they’ll have to increase the SP to get more shares.

Nice to see 40p again, big gap up from 45p to 55p

Gl all

Azvalor are not Shorters, and have never been with Tullow.

They only invest in real assets, with a good management in place.

Their building a large stake here, price will hover around until the order has been filled, then it will be let go.

Follow the money…..

Gl all

At Azvalor we invest in real assets, not in stock tickers. We invest in quality companies with good businesses and sustainable competitive advantages, led by capable and honest management teams that have shareholders’ best interests at heart, and whose intrinsic value is not reflected in their stock price.
Our vocation and obligation is to seek and, where appropriate, find and take advantage of the short-term inefficiencies between price and value offered by organized (stock) markets in order to try to maximize the returns of our long-term investments, minimizing as far as possible permanent losses.
When we invest, we strive to do it rationally, without letting our emotions take over, and we do so by applying the Value Investing philosophy, where time is on our side and patience is a key factor.
You, as co-investor of Azvalor, like us, own a percentage of companies with real assets and solid fundaments, among others…