Member Info for Acuere

Getting accurate up to date NAV is a problem.

Historically FIPP have understated the real valuation of successful investments.

This was how Exscientia was valued.

30 June 2020. £4.4m

30 June 2021. £13.2m

1st Oct 2021. $34.4m (about £25.8m at time). This was IPO price.

I believe 2D Photonics, in the books at £3.1m, is being understated now (At the behest of recent investors). By my reckoning it’s at least £7m and possibly even £14m right now. However we may not be told the true figure until next year.

2D Photonics (formerly CamGraphic) have completed fundraise. Here is a list of the new investors.

https://www.2dphotonics.com/investors/

Keep your eye on CamGraphic.

Potentially very significant news about their fundraise incoming.

Yes there is a greater risk with unquoted investments which is why Fipp current market cap of £23m is roughly at a 50% discount to the NAV you quote.

It is worth noting however that historically Fipp have been conservative with their valuation of investments.

These were the book values of Fipps stake in Exscientia, the one company to IPO so far.

30 June 2020. £4.4m

30 June 2021. £13.2m

1st Oct 2021. At IPO $34.4m (about £25.8m at time)

Nice change in SP direction last 2/3 days. There was a sudden flurry of buys and then some late declared trades. Then I suspect watchers bought in thinking bottom had been reached.

Not sure if catalyst was seller being cleared or if tipped somewhere. Or is it too much to hope that word leaked about long awaited Penn contract being finalised.

Really need to get this Penn contract done and dusted to try and generate some buying interest again.

It does seem remarkable that the SP is now back down to the level it was just before the California contract details were announced. At which time they were able to do a significantly oversubscribed placing at a premium of 300p. Makes you wander where all that demand has gone.

A promising post from Rich Ford indicating Astute Electronics will be using Osmium. Astute Electronics had turnover of £287m in 2022 up from £119m in 2021.

“This gamechanging technology is the best thing to have happened to power supply design for decades in my opinion. Astute Electronics are moving forward with this technology and more amazing news will follow as Pulsiv surge forward”

hTTps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7155324198054207489/

Expansion of Kooth services in Penn.

https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-news/2024/01/south-williamsport-area-school-district-students-offered-new-mental-health-tool/?utm_campaign=1706111418&utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20240124

Last 3 years, Trading Update has come on the 19th, 20th and 22nd of January. I was expecting it yesterday or today. MMs happy to take SP down on low volume until we hear any definite news. Hoping that they’ve held TU back as they want to accompany it with some pending contract news.

Based on what company has stated I estimate these are their CIRT sales to date.

YE Sep 22. 91 sales. Total 91

H1 Mar 23. 160 sales. Total 240

H2 Sep 23. 356 sales. Total 595. ( FY 516 Sales)

3.5month since 175 sales. Total 770.

They stated they made 300 sales by mid May 23 and record 97 sales in June. So since 1st July they have averaged about 60 sales per month, which is about 1 a month from their 57 doctors.

Let’s hope the PSE take up is better.

Would expect to see one more Holding notices after all that.

Canaccord last notice had them down to 8.96% or 3.26m shares. Although one site shows them below 8%. BGF have been adding and were up to 6.15% in November.

Interesting though to read this comment from Amati about Kooth in November.

“So a well established business, respected amongst practitioners, but really expanding from the UK into the US is what’s going to make it for us quite an exciting investment. Important to note that it’s a more risky position than many of the holdings in the fund. Therefore, it’s quite a modest starting position, but nevertheless, one that is very exciting.”

With the company now less risky, I wonder if might they be increasing that “modest starting position”?

Excellent stuff as ever.

These sentences whet the appetite.

“widespread adoption in the American market."

“Collaborate with the European CTO to develop and implement a robust technical strategy”

Yes hopefully with interest rates set to fall and UK equities looking cheap hopefully this selling to meet redemption requests will dry up.

It’s worth remembering last years SP movements.

In March Kooth had to announce early that they had won California contract and details would follow. A month later SP was about 292p. Despite this knowledge by late June, SP was below 240p and barely moved even when Kooth informed market that contract would be signed shortly.

Contract was RNSd 4th July. Two weeks later, with placing done, SP was above 370p.

And yet despite evidence that Pennsylvania pilot has been successful and I’d say 99% certain to be extended. And despite evidence that California has been launched on time and app is now available in 13 languages, the SP had fallen back below premium placing price.

With either Penn RNS or Trading Update due in next 3 weeks, I can easily see this trading in 400-450p range quite soon.

Yes an update would be welcome. They did Trading Update on 19th January last year so should hear something soon.

I would certainly like to hear confirmation of an extension to the Pennsylvania pilot. I’m not entirely sure what dates the initial contract covered. The October 2022 RNS said it covered an academic school year. The service was made available to students on 21st February 2023.

I was pleased to add at below the 300p placing price recently, but with todays SP drop it appears I should have waited.

That’s good news. If they hadn’t passed the budget this week there was talk they might not meet for another 3 months as a leaky roof needed fixing. Hopefully we’ll get a good RNS before year ends now.

Whilst we continue to await Penn finalising their budget (the $100m Mental health budget has been agreed), here Scott McKenzie, manager on the [WS] Amati UK Listed Smaller Companies fund discusses his investment in Kooth

https://www.fundcalibre.com/the-bright-side-of-bleak-opportunities-in-uk-smaller-companies

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12630383/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Chip-maker-EnSilica-ringing-changes.html

Great stuff as usual Shearclass.

Hopefully Penn will finally sign off on their budget soon and then Kooth contract can be confirmed.

In last Investor Meet, they were very keen to say focus is all on successful delivery of California ahead of 1st January launch. However they have mentioned NY and N.Carolina in the past as targets. And from that Brain conference it’s obvious that they have support in Kansas and Illinois, where they already have offices. They also mentioned that 30 states looking at mental health investment.

Add in the potential to licence out the 18 non-English language versions. Future looks very bright if California is a success and they sound genuinely confident now that it will be.

Not held these for 6m or so, but still on watchlist.

Interesting to look at their revenue guidance since last year. The 2022 results had revenue at $44m and guidance for 2023 was to increase 21 - 26% or $53-55m.

By Q1 they were guiding 8-12% growth or ~ $49m

By Q2 2023 would be comparable to 2022. So $40-44m

Now guidance is for a 20% fall to $34-36m.

At every quarter they have clearly underestimated the downturn in business and investors can only hope that this latest guidance is more realistic.

It’s difficult to make a strong investment case at present until we see signs of a recovery in the sector.

However, on the positive side with a market cap of £200m and cash balance of £165m equivalent, downside from here must be limited .

Whilst we await news from Penn, there is a study out today which shows the rapidly growing number of young people claiming disability benefits due to mental health issues.

It’s the sort of thing that should encourage government to invest greater resources to deal with the increasing costs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66592814