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Anyone want to review the following maths?

- In these workings, assume there are 100 shares (or 100 equal 'tranches' of shares).

- Mulligan currently owns about 6, and will receive x new shares after the debt-for-equity swap.

His holding is then (6 + x).

- The number of new shares will then be (100 + x). Mulligan will own 30%, or 0.3, of the new total.

- So (6 + x) = 0.3 * (100 + x) [ i.e. 30% of the enlarged capital ]

=> (6 + x) = 30 + (0.3 * x)

=> 0.7 * x = 24

=> x = 240 / 7 = 34 (roughly)

- So shares roughly go from 100 to 134.

That's an increase of about one third. Or - existing shares (inclduing our own) will be three quarters (100/134) their previous value once the total is enlarged.

If that's the case, it's not total wipeout.

I would say it's not too bad a deal for retail investors IF the plus side is that company remains afloat.

Any thoughts?

Someone asks, why the S/P fall?

With the greatest respect, isn't it obvious?

- Earlier this year, we expected a finalising deal on the JV. Eventually, on 20 April 2023, a deal was announced which was anything but finalised.

- Last year, on 12 May 2022, the initial exclusivity arrangement appeared in an RNS. There were to be 90 days for due diligence, a further 90 days for execution of the JV. 6 months in all.

The deal-which-was-not-deal was announced almost a year later.

- On 20 April 2023, we were told it was weeks before the deal-which-was-not-deal would be completed. It is now October.

It's nothing to do with MMs or MACD or TA or Fibonaccis.

Quite simply, the market's lost faith.

AIM mining - especially African - is the retail investor's graveyard. Anything that can go wrong - legal, political, commercial, geological, act of God - probably will. The market knows that.

My one bright hope is that the 3 Anglo nominees for the JV have some nous, will wrest control from Schirnding, and pull the whole thing together.

If the market sees competence, the s/p may - just may - begin to rise.

Https://www.investmentreports.co/article/nick-von-schirnding-ceo-arc-780/

" ... we can act very fast once we identify new opportunities ..."

Ah yes, veritably the Lewis Hamilton of the mining world. Blink and you missed it.

(Er - did it ever arrive?)

Almost 5 months now. More drawn out than War & Peace. Less action than Jaws IV.

Come on Glencore, BHP, RIO, put us out of our misery.

Hostile Bid? 10p a share? 8p? Anything ...?

I might add, just what do the optimists expect in the near term? Once CPs are met (whatever they are - does anybody know?), the Cadastre issues resolved (asssuming this happens before the end of the century), what changes?

The JV still needs to be set up, staffed. Drilling infrastucture needs to be commissioned, then utilised.Drilling results examined, assayed, JORC estimates published, etc

All this may take years.

(Some of us naively assumed it might have been done half a decade ago.)

Sigh. If only there had been a straight sale ...

The bulls on this board assume that all those expressing negative opinions, first, have no holding in ARCM and, second, are acting for 'nefarious reason(s)'. Absolutely not the case for me.

I have built up a substantial holding over the years since 2016. My doubts spring from frustration at the delays, and anger at the misleading news flows. Seven years of it.

If things turn round tomorrow, great. About time. I doubt they will.

Von Schirnding has stated somewhere that share price is not important. 'Let them eat cake', you almost hear himn saying.

Well, it is important to me.

My main hope at present is that if - when - the JV is incorporated (the board will have 3 AA nominees, 2 from ARC), the CEO will be an AA placement who's tough, no-nonsense, and reports directly to the AA board - someone who can lay out clear, achievable milestones and then work, step by step, to accomplishing them.

If that happens, even if significant finds are still a couple of years out, confidence will return and the share price will rise.

Prior to 20th April, I was totally in agreement with those irritated by peggycilla and her incessantly negative comments.

Since then - and the completion deal that completed nothing - I find myself agreeing with her every word.

She suggested a while back that AA "will make a move for the lot [whole company] on the cheap" if the share price continues to drop.

Well, Halleluja if that happens.

Question becomes, at what price?

10p+ Can we dream ... ??

8-10p, OK, reasonable return, though not as much I hoped 6-7 years ago.

6-8p, Well, better than nothing, though worse than had I invested in an S&P 500 tracker. But at least I could realise cash, clear slate, move on.

< 6p Disaster, though I can't see this happening (despite the fact that 5p is at present a 100% mark-up).

But, whatever, at least I wouldn't have to endure another conference call from a certain snake oil salesman ...

Remember all those notes from Hardman Research (e.g. 17 Jan 23) telling the whole project had been 'de-risked'?

Wonder what they're saying now?

( ... not 'worst' - ARCM can always disappoint some more.)

So what's the timeline till drill-bit breaks ground?

1. Licences. Someone somewhere stated Zambian govt wants to clear up Cadastre backlog

by end July. Given normal slippage, shall we allow an extra month? End August?

2. JV company. Has it been incorporated? Do they have office space/staff/office gear/etc?

Has AA decided on its 3 board members? Are these people required to give notice on current positions?

1 month? 2 or even 3? End October?

3. Drilling gear. Von Schirnding states they already have drill company lined up. And the initial site's

been picked. But drilling contractor may not be able to drop everything when the green light comes.

Do they have to complete existing projects? What about transporting gear to the site?

1 month? 2? End November? December?

The rainy season kicks in about then, and lasts to April. So now we're talking Q2 2024.

If this is the case, the s/p will drift down to 2p over the next year.

Dear friends, your investment will be worth a third less.

Here's a direct challenge to von Schirnding: any chance you might for once - just once - actually meet

expectations? Or - mirabile dictu - beat them?

In relationships, personal projects, business ventures - in life - sometimes one has to decide to pull the plug, sell up, move on.

Has that point been reached with ARCM?

Hang on, we've crossed the line, I hear you saying.

Err. No we haven't. The completion deal WAS JUST NOT complete.

This tango with AA has lasted 3 years. Will it take another 3? Can I wait? Can I be bothered?

Some s/p values while I've been invested. There's always just enough hype to keep it from going to zero.

(I should have invested in an S&P500 tracker.)

Date S/P

02-Jan-15 10.00

04-Jan-16 4.00

03-Jan-17 2.00

02-Jan-18 2.50

02-Jan-19 2.62

02-Jan-20 3.08

14-Jul 20 Exclusivity Agreement with AA

07-Dec-20 AA completes review. Specific DD queries to be submitted by AA

04-Jan-21 3.80

13-Jan-21 AA starts negotiations

16-Mar-21 S/P touches 8.9

09-Jul-21 Exclusivity Agreement lapses. Other groups interested (apparently)

04-Jan-22 2.35

12-May-22 Agreement entered with AA. 90 days exclusivity for due diligence

15-Aug-22 Exclusivity extended for 2nd period of 90 days for due diligence

03-Nov-22 Exclusivity extended to 08-Feb-23

03-Jan-23 3.10

07-Feb-23 Exclusivity extended to 31-Mar-23

31-Mar-23 Exclusivity extended to 21-Apr-23

20-Apr-23 Agreement signed, BUT "subject to certain Conditions Precedent being satisfied, including normal

Regulatory Approvals in Zambia".

22-Jun-2023 3.08

A challenge for von Schirnding : prove me wrong!

Tell me, seriously, honestly. Do the long term holders on this board really believe this deal will ever get off the ground?

It's 2 months now since the announcement - remember, von Schirnding stated 'weeks, not months' for CPs to be completed.

And when - if - CPs are finallised, will we find there's something else outstanding? Regulatory approval? Cadastre? The lawyers in London? The local chiefs? ...

Or is it like Spurs and the Premiership? Every year we think, this is the one. Every year, we're disappointed.

I wish - wish - I sold a year or two back when shares touched 8p.

Now I suspect I'll have to rely on the Greater Fool theory, that there's some sucker out there, as gullible as I was five years ago, who'll buy my shares at a halfway resonable price ...

In the investor call 20th April, von Schirnding is asked how long before the AA deal is finalised.

[ Some of us naively assumed of course that this would have happened on the 20th April. ]

Not days, he said, not months, [ but ] weeks.

Well, it's 6 weeks now.

I'll leave it to the semanticists among you to decide whether we are into months already or whether we cross that threshold at week 8.

So - another commitment missed?

One can only hope that if this deal is ever completed - a big 'if' - AA will appoint some hardnosed CEO who actually says what she means. And means what she says.

I might add, a successful businessman I once worked for had a simple motto - Under Promise, Over Deliver.

If only Arc would actually deliver on a commitment. On time.

Perhaps I'll bequeath my Arc holding to my grandchildren.

I'll tell them it could make THEIR grandchildren rich.

On the other hand, of course, it might not.

Still, they can always listen in on an investor call with Nick "The Flash" Von Schirnding the Third. Key phrases to watch out for : 'game-changer', 'motherlode', 'interest from the majors', 'positive newsflow' ...

And of course, 'We're in a hurry' ...

[ Groan ]

I've held a sizeable position in this company since way back in the Ortac days.

Quite suddenly, I'm sick to death of it.

I'm sick of the game-changers which change nothing, the deals which are never completed,

the news flow which never flows, the prospects always put back, the share price which remains permanently depressed.

A year ago NvS said AA were "in a hurry". Oh yeah? Could have fooled me.

He says also the lack of an official statement fromn AA is because Arc is small fry.

I don't buy this. If Microsoft invested $80m in an AI startup, you'd hear about it.

I'm also sick of the sniping on this board. Can't we accept different points of view, even

when we disagree with them?

I wish - just wish - the company had been sold off in its entirety a year ago, at perhaps

7-8p a share.

At least then, we'd have been able to move on.

...

4.70p
Is this the end? Or is it capitulation?

Like SH, I emailed NvS recently and got a reply. As with SH, I was asked not to reveal details.

NvS remains upbeat however.

Am not totally convinced. I've been in since 2017 and now just want to move on. My preference is for any sale, even at a price which would have disappointed a year ago.

New management perhaps? We need at the least better communication of timelines and strategy.

I'll hang on for now, but not forever. As I pointed out to NvS, if I had invested in an S&P500 tracker, I would have been up well over 100%

Idiot? SP has fallen from 3 to 2.5 - so the market agrees that it was a bad deal.

But there is a another issue here, the tendency of some to resort to personal abuse
when they disagree with another poster.

Let's remember - such abuse shames not the recipient of the abuse - but the sender.

I can't get over how awful this Casa deal is.

If the resource remains at 3m ounces, the sale price will be just $1.8M. For 3 million oz of gold.
A bunch of us on this chat site could raise that amount by remortgaging and clubbing together.
(We'd then be sitting on a goldmine. Haha.)

Credit to Century Capital. They've got a great asset. Too bad they're not running ARCM.

Or perhaps they soon will be if NvS sells the rest of our assets down the river.

Recommendation in FT by David Schwartz http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/83bfbf8a-ba82-11de-9dd7-00144feab49a.html