The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Remember all those notes from Hardman Research (e.g. 17 Jan 23) telling the whole project had been 'de-risked'?
Wonder what they're saying now?
( ... not 'worst' - ARCM can always disappoint some more.)
So what's the timeline till drill-bit breaks ground?
1. Licences. Someone somewhere stated Zambian govt wants to clear up Cadastre backlog
by end July. Given normal slippage, shall we allow an extra month? End August?
2. JV company. Has it been incorporated? Do they have office space/staff/office gear/etc?
Has AA decided on its 3 board members? Are these people required to give notice on current positions?
1 month? 2 or even 3? End October?
3. Drilling gear. Von Schirnding states they already have drill company lined up. And the initial site's
been picked. But drilling contractor may not be able to drop everything when the green light comes.
Do they have to complete existing projects? What about transporting gear to the site?
1 month? 2? End November? December?
The rainy season kicks in about then, and lasts to April. So now we're talking Q2 2024.
If this is the case, the s/p will drift down to 2p over the next year.
Dear friends, your investment will be worth a third less.
Here's a direct challenge to von Schirnding: any chance you might for once - just once - actually meet
expectations? Or - mirabile dictu - beat them?
In relationships, personal projects, business ventures - in life - sometimes one has to decide to pull the plug, sell up, move on.
Has that point been reached with ARCM?
Hang on, we've crossed the line, I hear you saying.
Err. No we haven't. The completion deal WAS JUST NOT complete.
This tango with AA has lasted 3 years. Will it take another 3? Can I wait? Can I be bothered?
Some s/p values while I've been invested. There's always just enough hype to keep it from going to zero.
(I should have invested in an S&P500 tracker.)
Date S/P
02-Jan-15 10.00
04-Jan-16 4.00
03-Jan-17 2.00
02-Jan-18 2.50
02-Jan-19 2.62
02-Jan-20 3.08
14-Jul 20 Exclusivity Agreement with AA
07-Dec-20 AA completes review. Specific DD queries to be submitted by AA
04-Jan-21 3.80
13-Jan-21 AA starts negotiations
16-Mar-21 S/P touches 8.9
09-Jul-21 Exclusivity Agreement lapses. Other groups interested (apparently)
04-Jan-22 2.35
12-May-22 Agreement entered with AA. 90 days exclusivity for due diligence
15-Aug-22 Exclusivity extended for 2nd period of 90 days for due diligence
03-Nov-22 Exclusivity extended to 08-Feb-23
03-Jan-23 3.10
07-Feb-23 Exclusivity extended to 31-Mar-23
31-Mar-23 Exclusivity extended to 21-Apr-23
20-Apr-23 Agreement signed, BUT "subject to certain Conditions Precedent being satisfied, including normal
Regulatory Approvals in Zambia".
22-Jun-2023 3.08
A challenge for von Schirnding : prove me wrong!
Tell me, seriously, honestly. Do the long term holders on this board really believe this deal will ever get off the ground?
It's 2 months now since the announcement - remember, von Schirnding stated 'weeks, not months' for CPs to be completed.
And when - if - CPs are finallised, will we find there's something else outstanding? Regulatory approval? Cadastre? The lawyers in London? The local chiefs? ...
Or is it like Spurs and the Premiership? Every year we think, this is the one. Every year, we're disappointed.
I wish - wish - I sold a year or two back when shares touched 8p.
Now I suspect I'll have to rely on the Greater Fool theory, that there's some sucker out there, as gullible as I was five years ago, who'll buy my shares at a halfway resonable price ...
In the investor call 20th April, von Schirnding is asked how long before the AA deal is finalised.
[ Some of us naively assumed of course that this would have happened on the 20th April. ]
Not days, he said, not months, [ but ] weeks.
Well, it's 6 weeks now.
I'll leave it to the semanticists among you to decide whether we are into months already or whether we cross that threshold at week 8.
So - another commitment missed?
One can only hope that if this deal is ever completed - a big 'if' - AA will appoint some hardnosed CEO who actually says what she means. And means what she says.
Perhaps I'll bequeath my Arc holding to my grandchildren.
I'll tell them it could make THEIR grandchildren rich.
On the other hand, of course, it might not.
Still, they can always listen in on an investor call with Nick "The Flash" Von Schirnding the Third. Key phrases to watch out for : 'game-changer', 'motherlode', 'interest from the majors', 'positive newsflow' ...
And of course, 'We're in a hurry' ...
[ Groan ]
I've held a sizeable position in this company since way back in the Ortac days.
Quite suddenly, I'm sick to death of it.
I'm sick of the game-changers which change nothing, the deals which are never completed,
the news flow which never flows, the prospects always put back, the share price which remains permanently depressed.
A year ago NvS said AA were "in a hurry". Oh yeah? Could have fooled me.
He says also the lack of an official statement fromn AA is because Arc is small fry.
I don't buy this. If Microsoft invested $80m in an AI startup, you'd hear about it.
I'm also sick of the sniping on this board. Can't we accept different points of view, even
when we disagree with them?
I wish - just wish - the company had been sold off in its entirety a year ago, at perhaps
7-8p a share.
At least then, we'd have been able to move on.
...
4.70p
Is this the end? Or is it capitulation?
Like SH, I emailed NvS recently and got a reply. As with SH, I was asked not to reveal details.
NvS remains upbeat however.
Am not totally convinced. I've been in since 2017 and now just want to move on. My preference is for any sale, even at a price which would have disappointed a year ago.
New management perhaps? We need at the least better communication of timelines and strategy.
I'll hang on for now, but not forever. As I pointed out to NvS, if I had invested in an S&P500 tracker, I would have been up well over 100%
Idiot? SP has fallen from 3 to 2.5 - so the market agrees that it was a bad deal.
But there is a another issue here, the tendency of some to resort to personal abuse
when they disagree with another poster.
Let's remember - such abuse shames not the recipient of the abuse - but the sender.
I can't get over how awful this Casa deal is.
If the resource remains at 3m ounces, the sale price will be just $1.8M. For 3 million oz of gold.
A bunch of us on this chat site could raise that amount by remortgaging and clubbing together.
(We'd then be sitting on a goldmine. Haha.)
Credit to Century Capital. They've got a great asset. Too bad they're not running ARCM.
Or perhaps they soon will be if NvS sells the rest of our assets down the river.
Recommendation in FT by David Schwartz http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/83bfbf8a-ba82-11de-9dd7-00144feab49a.html