The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Incidentally, the enthusiasts have been saying the s/p should shoot up once the drilling schedule is released. But hang on, shouldn't it be ready by now?
The rainy season ends within a month. Surely Anglo have prepped teams, booked equipment, laid on transport, decided on timetables and next steps. So what gives?
Thing is, Anglo won't say anything for our benefit.
So who's going to provide that exciting news flow? We're waiting ...
Jeremiah99, let me just say, my analysis was not 100% correct.
The value of the 'entity' - i.e. ARC Minerals Ltd - was NOT the same before and after the issue. Of course its value rose by the amount of cash raised.
Nevertheless, there is a sense that we, the retail shareholders, are being shafted by the 'själviska jäklar' who run the company.
With greatest respect Jeremiah99, some may see it slightly differently.
Assume actual dilution is 16%.
Your share of the company increased from (J's shares ) / (Total shares) to (J's shares x 1.25 ) / (Total shares x 1.16) - an increase of 1.078, or about 8 percent.
So some might argue that roughly 2 shares out of every 3 you bought went merely to keep your relative shareholding the same as what it was before.
That is, only 1 in 3 of the shares you bought actually increased your relative ownership of the company.
Each of these 'new value' shares therefore cost about 3 x 1.8p. At 5.4p perhaps not such a bargain.
As our Swedish teacher friends may say of the BoD, fusk rövhål ...
The number of new shares : 235,488,880
New total : 1,467,807,345
Previous total : 1,232,318,465
Increase / Dilution : 19.1%
Interest previously held by Lärarnas Riksförbund (Teacher's Pension Fund) 5%
Shall we assume half had already been sold on the open market? 2.5%
If we assume remaining 2.5% is bought back and then cancelled, that still leaves dilution of 16.6%
Hardly sweetens the pill ...
New investors might wish to ask, do these guys really have the time to manage the company you co-own?
Other interests ...
Nick Von Schirnding
Consultant Apollo Global Management LLC
Director JANGADA MINES PLC
Chairman FODERE TITANIUM LIMITED
Chairman Metals Exploration PLC
Brian McMaster
Executive Chairman Harvest Minerals Ltd.
Executive Chairman Jangada Mines Plc
marketscreener.com also states 'He is also on the board of 8 other companies'.
Rémy Welschinger
MANAGING DIRECTOR VIRIDIAN LITHIUM
Non Executive Director Infinity Lithium
Managing Director LIMEHOUSE CAPITAL
Non Exectuive Director Firering Strategic Mineral
Absolutely devastating critique of Arc.
See SharePickers podcast with guest John Meyer :
https://audioboom.com/posts/8474024-john-meyer-on-copper-lithium-atlantic-lithium-savannah-res-cornish-metals-jangada-mines-ar
(11nm:40s -17m:40s)
'complete shambles', '[don't] know how to run a mining company', ' ... self-serving directors that just don’t understand the junior markets'.
Crucially, 'all they’re interested in is promoting their other businesses'. He singles out Brian McMaster who runs (fails to run) Jangada mines.
The only bright spot, Meyer suggests, is that Anglo are running the show. But even Anglo must be wondering what's going on.
Truly sorry to ruin your weekends.
Does anyone think there's any mileage in the idea of setting up an activist investor group? More common in the US, I know. I don't know whether it's feasible on AIM.
The aims would be to put pressure on board wrt issues such as: avoidance of 'mis-statements' (or lying to put it less charitably); director remuneration (tying it to share price); greater clarity on strategy/execution (they divested non-core assets three years back, now they want to buy new ones/who's running the JV); fees (e.g. Rothschilds); tighter control of target setting/deadlines/messaging; participation in future issues; (at the extreme) non-exec seat on the board if malpractice can be proved.
The 'mis-statements' are the most serious issue; '30% not 20%'; 'weeks not months'; 'no need for a raise'; etc. See DG's post below.
There would be a cost in setting it up, not least legal fees. And I guess it's complicated by the fact that many of us own our shares through nominee accounts on trading platforms.
Another option might conceivably be for the group to contact the Zambian Ministry of Mines. They want to clean up their act so as to attract foreign capital. If there are suspicions that ARC are sailing close to the wind on corporate governance, they might not be too pleased.
Anyone with the legal expertise to say whether this might work?
Sorry, Diamond's absolutely right.
The BoD have raped the company and betrayed ordinary shareholders.
It may come good one day, but that's years away - new investors, take note. And what might BoD do to sabotage it even if it happens?
If in doubt, look at the value destruction year by year in my earlier message.
Like DiamondG, a sniff of 4p and that's it for me.
Very sad.
"hopefully the sp will move up soon." Err ... what???
23-Mar-21 7.40
13-May-21 6.00
09-Jun-21 5.50
28-Jun-21 5.00
08-Jul-21 4.89
27-Jul-21 3.75
02-Nov-21 3.01
06-Dec-21 2.55
10-May-22 4.50
14-Jun-22 4.00
23-Jun-22 3.53
30-Aug-22 3.04
28-Sep-23 2.81
28-Feb-24 2.26
11-Mar-24 1.88
Well done, Eloro, getting out when you did.
I well remember the share price at those levels - I had a stake back then, but did nothing. Greed breeds stupidity I guess. In my defence I had hoped for a complete buyout.
It amazes me that there are still people on this board and on Twitter who still sing the praises of the idiots who run this company. Do people not learn from history? If wilful share price destruction occurs today, why shouldn't it occur again in the future?
...absolute sc*mb*gs.
I challenge any - ANY - of this share's enthusiasts to put a positive spin on this.
And why now? 2 months either side the s/p would probably be significantly higher.
I speculated a while back about a lowball buyout. I guess this makes it far harder. Why pay 4p/share for 1.9p/share in cash?
Or is that the intention?
It's pains me to say this but - peggycilla, you were absolutely spot on.
I wonder whether we might see a sudden low-ball offer, perhaps 4/5p per share. 30% of a Tier 1 copper prospect for c. $50m?
[ In fact, should it be a cause for concern if we do NOT get such an offer? ]
DiamondGeazer
You mention a 10-20x markup, with shareholders getting 60-70% of that. Well, 10x would give 21p, 60% of that about 12.
But a few years ago the s/p hit 7p, and a buyout at that time, at a 50% premium, would have been pretty damn close to that target.
So 3+ years of kerfuffle. For nothing.
Absolutely infuriating.
... Just to underscore the point ...
3/4 years back, just before the Exclusivity Arrangement with Anglo, Schirnding was telling us (if he can be believed) that multiple majors were circling.
The s/p touched 7p. It's reasonable to conclude the company could have been sold for something north of there. And here's the kicker - that capital could then have been re-deployed in any number of exciting opportunities: US tech, AI, the mag 7, even an S&P tracker. Stuff with growth.
Instead we're stuck here with this dog.
PS A note to NiceToMichu ...
You say you're buying low and aiming to hold, for years if necessary. Fair enough. But I was in that precise same situation 7 years ago, and I have nothing to show for all that waiting.
Ah, but this time it's different, you say. Prospectivity and all that.
Yeah, well, perhaps. Excuse me if I'm somewhat cynical.
What will finally cause this s/p to move upward?
Over the last couple of years, we've had a lot of predictions which have come to nothing - when the EA is signed/when deal is initialled/when deal is signed/the CPs signed/when drilling starts/etc.
There've been more recently - when Swedes finish selling/AA announce drilling campaign/rainy season ends. But why is this time different? For some reason I'm reminded of Einstein's famous definition of insanity.
It seems to me 3 things may actually change matters.
1. A full fanfare announcement by AA of the discovery - and verification - of a tier 1 asset. But this may be years away. Even more years before copper is shipped and cash starts flowing. Also let's note, AA may pass on a mid tier asset.
2. A full takeover of ARCM by AA or one of their competitors. Absolutely my preferred option, though I think the chance is receding.
3. FOMO. It is just possible - just - that meme stock hysteria will overtake this share. If this happens you'd have to move quickly. It might shoot up and then shoot down again.
Apart from that ... hmmm. I think we're waiting for that Dulux brilliant white to turn grey.
Anyone care to predict price at XMas this year?
Next year? 2026?
Looking back at previous RNS's we see that even back in October last year the shape of a deal was already in place,
including long term finance of $80M and short-term bridging loan facilities. From press reports we also knew the likely benefactor, entrepreneur Seamus Mulligan and his Nerano group.
So what's the holdup?
Yes it's a lot of money, but where's the sense of urgency? (And where was the foresight a year ago?)
We note that even if the company started trading tomorrow, timetables for first patient treatment and certification are going to be put back at least 8 months. What worries me as well is that vital equipment currently lies mouldering away in a forgotten basement, while hard-won skills are being lost by disaffected keyworkers who probably can no longer give a damn.
Come on AVO. Time to put us out of our misery. Or to get back to work.
When will this news affect the share price? Indeed!
Wags might suggest it's called deal of the century because it'll take a century to get your money back.
My guess is that every LTH - EVERY ONE - is sitting on a loss at present. (I am one.)
DiamondGeazer, below you mention that Arc "... have received our USD2.3m (our share of the USD3.5m) ..."
In an interview with IGTV 10 Nov 2023, 47 seconds in, Schirnding states "3 and a half million dollars has been paid to Arc ..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRRRwsCqCjw
So who's right? 2.3M or 3.5M?
It's a measure of the BoD that I believe you more than I do the CEO.