RE: Forward Work Programme RNS Incoming14 Jul 2025 17:47
Question for Al and the answer.
Question = Estimated sale price of an onshore oilfield with competant person report estimating 33 million barrels of recoverable oil and possibly upto 60 million barrels with new drilling techniques
Answer = ChatGPT said:
The estimated sale price of an onshore oilfield depends on several key variables, particularly:
Recoverable reserves (33–60 million barrels in your case),
Oil price assumptions (usually benchmarked to Brent or WTI),
Development costs (CAPEX/OPEX),
Netback (profit per barrel),
Jurisdiction/regulatory/tax environment,
Stage of development (proved, probable, possible reserves),
Market appetite and recent comparable deals.
Back-of-the-envelope Valuation:
We’ll use a common method: Net Present Value per Barrel (NPV/boe) or $/barrel of recoverable reserves.
Step 1: Assumptions
Variable Conservative Optimistic
Recoverable Oil 33 MMbbl 60 MMbbl
Realistic Sale Price per bbl* $3–$8 $10–$15
*Note: Actual sale prices vary widely. In recent years, transactions for undeveloped onshore oil reserves have ranged from $2–$15 per barrel, depending on certainty, location, infrastructure, and oil price outlook.
Estimated Sale Value Range:
Low Case:
33 million bbl × $3/bbl = $99 million
33 million bbl × $8/bbl = $264 million
High Case:
60 million bbl × $10/bbl = $600 million
60 million bbl × $15/bbl = $900 million
Indicative Market Value Range:
👉 $100 million to $900 million, with a likely valuation clustered between $200 million and $600 million depending on:
Proven vs. speculative reserves,
Infrastructure proximity,
Political/geological risk,
Buyer risk appetite.