Member Info for AA2020

@Flavius - I would add to that list the following

- Outstanding litigation/arbitration cases wtih GRA. How can a potential bidder value the business until these are resolved

- Size of sammy's stake. He would need to be supportive.

And yes previous management are fools for having not updated 4D seismic since 2017. But in depths of 2020/2021 crisis this was probably understandable at the time. Hindsight is always 20/20.

This is a company that just a few weeks ago confirmed it still expected to end 2025 with leverage at 1.3x. That’s not horrible. And in 18 months the TEN FPSO lease cost drops off a cliff which will generate nice cash flow. And better reservoir modelling and data should improve drill results.

As a previous poster said the other day - TLW is a binary play. Not worth 10p. It’s either worthless or worth multiples of today’s price.

Just need to get refi over the line, with minimal (or zero) equity dilution.

Https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/06/27/african-oil-veteran-adds-to-tullow-stake/

So this guy Samuel Dossou-Aworet owns c. 16% of TLW. He’s worth around $1.5bn it appears. In the H1 results the company stated several times they are in discussions with “private capital” providers as part of the refinancing. Just a random thought but I wonder if they might issue some preferred shares to Sammy and some others as part of a rescue plan/refinancing. Or something along those lines.

Their stake could be in Rockhopper. They could be one of the placees, recent fundraise is in escrow until Sea Lion FID, but placees would still be accounting for the outflow in their accounts as an investment. Israeli connection/friends maybe with Navitas and all that

I keep seeing reference to Marlon Monkey having returned. Under what name is he now posting? Are we sure it’s really him?

@4C: "Is that from multiples expansion + some cash divi?"

Yes, that is based on a little bit of multiple expansion. An oilfield services business like GMS, with long-life quality assets, I would expect to trade at a through-the-cycle average of c. 7.0x EV/EBITDA. Sometimes higher, sometimes lower, depending at the point in the cycle. As these sorts of players trade on long 10-15 year waves, and we've bottomed out of the last downturn the other year which began c. 2016, the next 7-8 years (at a minimum) should be very solid, and we've seen this already in the numbers over just the last 2 years. My position is it's still early days, and as I said, this should continue for a good while longer.

Just taking some simplistic numbers, with net debt at $125m (in c. 18 months time), EBITDA at $115m (a realistic 2026/27 estimate) and GBP/USD at 1.35, you get into low 40p range at 7.0x. And I would argue these are reasonably conservative assumptions. Not ramping at all, no need to ramp this, the numbers speak for themselves.

Has been slightly boring recently - flatlining and bouncing around 20p. On -2Y timeframe has been incredible. Would expect this to reach 40p range by around 2027 as deleveraging and day rate increases continue.

Really is beautiful seeing 60p already

4Corners -you’re still here! Good to see you post.

I would guess the bank is either: BofA, Citi or JPM

Don’t think Meren would ever have been able to pull it off. Kosmos will have a right of first refusal over the Ghana assets (only thing of interest for anybody anyway) in the event of any TLW change of control situation. Portfolio and legacy issues and refinancing is being cleaned up, just watch and wait, path is being cleared for Kosmos to come back into the frame in next 6-12 months in my view.

DYOR.

“On Wednesday evening, Milei will receive the Genesis Prize in the Knesset, and will address Israeli lawmakers. He will also give a lecture at Hebrew University on Thursday before flying home.” (Times of Israel)

Can’t see the Argies doing nasty things to an Israeli oil company operating near its coast in “disputed” waters

The OM award has been monetised. The ball is not in RKH’s court as to whether to resubmit the claim again. Yes they are still the legal owner of the OM license but the monetisation of the award is essentially a back-to-back agreement which gave the new funder effectively all the rights. Otherwise RKH would get two bites of the same cherry. What sort of funder would allow that??? (***so he says with 99% certainty***)

My neighbour’s sister lives in Aberdeen, they say her house value is currently down 50% (not sure if that’s based on original purchase price or just a decline compared to a few years ago etc….but either way is grim)

Would be lovely and poetic to see a takeover and break up of BP. Might be a nice kick and blow to the UK corporate landscape and the British Government, potentially forcing a retrenchment and reassessment of their energy policies?

First oil is imminent from a pair of major US Gulf developments, executives at two operators said on Tuesday at the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston.

The first, Beacon Offshore Energy’s Shenandoah field, is set to begin production in June, according to Michael Clarke, the company’s vice president of deep-water developments.

Meanwhile, the LLOG Exploration-operated Salamanca floating production system (FPS) is set to come online in August, according to Glenn Mediamolle, vice president of offshore development for the Louisiana-based operator.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/first-oil-on-the-way-for-two-major-us-gulf-developments/2-1-1815768

Yeah ok maybe not enough info, but highly unlikely to be a free carry on the capex

Re: the 30% back-in option, it just means they don’t have to pay to get back in. Once in, they will absolutely have to pay their pro rate share of development capex. It’s NOT a carried interest, or else they would have said that.