Member Info for AA2020

Let's say we get up to 240p once cash hits. From that point forward, what's more likely....a further 20% rise in CNE or a 20% rise in RDSB. The answer is obvious. I know where I'm redeploying my funds as soon as possible.

Don't get too excited. Watch it now drift down the rest of the day....

I don't see this getting much above 230-240p once Indian cash lands. Sure full NAV is very high 200s, but it will probably trade at a 10-20% discount to NAV for the next several years given uncertainty around NS earn outs (time value, production decline path, oil prices) and Egypt country risk and nature of ops (fixed price gas). Plus Mrs. Market never assigns much value to exploration or undeveloped assets. Plus too many shareholders (retail and institutional) looking to sell out ASAP to recycle their capital into better opportunities which will put a ceiling on this name.

They'll probably have the money in their account by end of November, by Christmas at the latest. They said the special divi would be paid early 2022. Let's assume sometime in Feb. Just work backwards from that.

@ Seav - while that may all be mathematically correct, what makes anyone think CNE has any intention of ever being the type of company to pay a regular dividend? I think it's wishful thinking. That's just not part of its strategy. It seems they have never paid a regular dividend. They prefer irregular, ad-hoc special capital returns.

They are explicitly pointing to a 40% uplift in day rates on new contracts. That’s just a really beautiful figure, up there almost with my wife

Well that's a nice update. I've always thought this business has beautiful recovery potential at the operating level. Hopefully this eventually shows through in the SP. I have just, like others here, been highly suspicious of SF/ManCap's true intentions. But, at this run rate of EBITDA and continued improvement, full year 2022 EBITDA would come through north of $80m and should eliminate the need for the second equity raise. I am still intrigued as to why Aberforth fully exited. I wonder if they have ESG requirements and had no choice due to some of the recent issues around the "G"

Hey MCATEE - where are those H1 results??

4C - good spot on the DTR guidance document. As expected, can add this to the long list of areas where GMS are non-compliant DTR-wise

I'm still not convinced they have to report by tomorrow. Again, for FY2020 it took them nearly five months to report results. But let's see and hope they do!

Or they could be renegotiating the price and earn out terms. Who knows.

No idea when the vote is - nothing has been announced yet. Re: penalty clauses, the detail announced to date did not specify. If there is a penalty clause, it's likely immaterial.

Indeed. The UK asset disposals still need the shareholder vote due to it being Class 1 transaction. They announced this disposal more than six months ago (9 MAR) and have not even yet published the associated circular and announced the General Meeting date for the vote. This delay is highly unusual and suggests to me (as a former M&A banker myself) that something is amiss. Perhaps Waldorf don't have the funds. Or the big IIs are pushing back. Or the board have woken up and are now smelling the coffee............

People/commentators everywhere are arguing that $80 oil is "too high" for the global economy to bear. The 2005-2008 period saw oil eventually peak out at around $150. In today's money, adjusted for inflation, that is around $200. The economy then coped fine with higher oil prices (although in fairness growth was much more robust). But the fundamental point here is - the economy today can no doubt still easily afford and cope with much stronger oil prices than today's c. $80 level.

I'm not convinced they have to report H1 results by the end of this month. I think they might have up to six months to report (I read this somewhere). FY2020 results for instance were not released until 14 May 2021.

r123 - that assumes the award goes in RKH's favour. And if so, no way they'll get the full $350m or so. Maybe half that at best based on forgone profits? And then they'll have to pay a chunk over to the arbitration funder who will take a big cut. And not to mention Italy would surely appeal. RKH would have to go after state assets a la Cairn/India. So factor in time value. Yes, HBR would have to pay a bit more, but not massively more IMO.

A post I just added to HBR board. I'm increasingly prepared for RKH to soon disappear one way or another. They really aren't the right partner for HBR in the Falklands. Need to get a big US player on board and tap the US financing markets for this development. UK/European money becoming too difficult for obvious ESG reasons. I wonder if the likes of Exxon would have any appetite.

Exactly LTT - ditching SL would be a big hit to their 2C. I struggle to see them doing that. At best, they'll just kick the can down the road. But even that has a hard stop some time late next year when license expires. And with Zama, well, those issues are obvious. With SL, RKH is the wrong partner and needs to be removed. And Navitas much the same. All past activity and costs on SL are sunk costs now, which is fabulous from HBR point of view. For $50-100m of HBR spend they can take 100% of SL (and the other nearby fields) by taking out RKH and starting over from scratch. Bring in a big US player, US financing, etc and voila HBR can shift the situation to themselves being fully funded to first oil rather than the other way around as currently stands.

Exactly LTT - ditching SL would be a big hit to their 2C. I struggle to see them doing that. At best, they'll just kick the can down the road. But even that has a hard stop some time late next year when license expires. And with Zama, well, those issues are obvious. With SL, RKH is the wrong partner and needs to be removed. And Navitas much the same. All past activity and costs on SL are sunk costs now, which is fabulous from HBR point of view. For $50-100m of HBR spend they can take 100% of SL (and the other nearby fields) by taking out RKH and starting over from scratch. Bring in a big US player, US financing, etc and voila HBR can shift the situation to themselves being fully funded to first oil rather than the other way around as currently stands.

These are American private equity funds at the end of the day (EIG et al). One thing they will definitely be wanting is some annual cash yield.

Paying off their debt? I disagree. They are not very highly leveraged. They'll be closing out this year at < 1.0x or thereabouts. No need to be paying it all off. Some debt good. Lots of debt bad.

I don't think there is going to be any share consolidation like what happened as part of the SEN distribution. They have made no mention of a share consolidation. I suspect they learnt their lesson from this. It appears it will just be a plain and straight forward dividend and then share buyback. But perhaps they will surprise us! I hope not. People didn't seem to like that share consolidation - even though in theory it should have made zero difference to value.

With the various different share lockups expiring soon, they would be daft not to begin painting a very robust growth and value story in order to try moving the SP higher. Like you say LTT, simply stating "we are big, have scale, low debt, on a par with Aker, Lundin, etc) is not sufficient in the eyes of Mr. Market.

This is their first real show case piece of public market engagement. I'm expecting to see and hear clear and firm messages and numbers around intentions for non-UK growth (Zama, Indonesia, Sea Lion) and dividends. Hopefully they don't disappoint.