Member Info for 99icecream

Schadenfreude as Chinese steel mills ask for help from Rio and BHP

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/schadenfreude-as-chinese-steel-mills-ask-for-help-from-rio-and-bhp-20201217-p56oa6.html

"Beijing’s plans for more self-sufficiency in the raw material, critical to President Xi’s dual-circulation strategy, indicate that potentially bolder actions to reduce dependency may be in the works."

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3114234/china-australia-relations-miner-rio-tinto-questioned-china

Todays price is irrelevant - its the 5 to 30 year price that is the key. So the forecast of 5 to 30 years (when the mine is established) is key. We have little to go on here but I can tell you that the Dec 2023 62% Iron-Ore future is indicated above $100 having been about $ 75 only two months ago. If you model the value at $100 rather than $75 - I make the difference in NPV about 3 times. All IMHO.

"If the answer is so obvious, what do people think is stopping them?"

The need for African Iron Ore depends on the demand/supply balance for Iron Ore in 5 to 30 years, not the current situation. This will depend upon on how the various major economies recover from the pandemic. In my opinion, the probability of a strong recovery in the world economy now looks high - but its not certain. The recent high prices of Iron Ore brings the issue of future supply nicely into focus. The steel producers in China will know that they cannot do nothing, they must act soon. New supply of Iron Ore will be one important priority, the other will be new furnaces for using steel scrap. I think 2021 will be very interesting time for Zanaga investors.

All IMHO

Wrong link Aberdeenman ?

Iron Ore Rockets To $160 A Ton And China Cries Foul

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2020/12/15/iron-ore-rockets-to-160-a-ton-and-china-cries-foul/?sh=5a1b84538afc

China's leverage over Australian exports is immense, but good luck with iron ore

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/china-s-leverage-over-australian-exports-is-immense-but-good-luck-with-iron-ore-20201215-p56np3.html

Thats DRC but it is evidence that China contiuues to do resource deals

Iron Ore Rattled as Crackdown Plea From China Mills Spurs Slump

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iron-ore-rattled-crackdown-plea-072742411.html

Hi - Smallest investment in Scottish Investment trust (end October 2020) is £ 0.5 million Standard Chartered. No AIM stocks I can see !

Even if you are managing funds on an active basis, you cannot risk (your job) investing too far away from the crowd. See what happened to James Clunie et al. who have aledgedly been short of tech stocks.

Yes, 0.1% ??

Beijing steel group demands answers from BHP over soaring iron ore prices

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3113623/china-australia-relations-beijing-steel-group-demands-answers

Reference 62% Iron Ore fines were up $3.50 today.

China's Iron Ore Prices Spike 10% to a Record High on Supply Concerns

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/business/money-report/chinas-iron-ore-prices-spike-10-to-a-record-high-on-supply-concerns/2254877/

Hi Extrader

I have to acknowledge that I know little about diamonds, having only ever bought one - many years ago. But I understand that you can now buy really good man made ones for a fraction of what I paid. I guess Elphick did not see that coming !!

The deal Elphick and Co. did with Xstrata, all those years ago suggests to me he's quite smart. IMHO of course.

Regards

RTZ have some issue w.r.t. to their recent behaviour in Australia (destroying a 46,000 year old Aboriginal site). My guess is that makes investment decisions on Simandou (or indeed Zanaga) rather difficult given they would be percived as anti-Australia.

..... I don't understand why Elphick and Co. would agree to be bought out cheaply. I think the deal-doing is easy even if Glencore do not own all of the mine.

Its hard to fathom why
..... anyone would think that Glencore don't know they own 50% of the best undeveloped Iron Ore mine in the world.
..... anyone would think that they would not sell if they can get the right price.
...... anyone would think that Ivan Glassenberg would leave before a deal is done.
..... anyone would think that China would not buy if they think that high iron-ore prices will persist.
..... why Glencore or China would signal their intentions ahead of a deal.
..... why the Republic of Congo would stand in the way of anything that gets this asset developed (and gives them an option to cash in their 10% interest) and leads to many other developments in the country.
...... why anone would think that Zanaga's best option is anything other than letting Glencore do a deal at the best price.

Iron Ore Is This Year’s Hottest Commodity on China-Fueled Surge

“The bull market for iron ore is set to extend into 2021,” Goldman said in its Dec. 8 report. “

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/iron-ore-is-this-year-s-hottest-commodity-on-china-fueled-surge-1.1534426

Speculative buying lifts China iron ore futures to contract high

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-ironore/speculative-buying-spurs-china-iron-ore-futures-to-contract-high-idUSKBN28K0B4

The end of the fund raise.