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Sorry 2nd line should read - in the case of Zanaga !

The Zanaga investment has been written down to zero by Glencore that is correct. Glencore is a miner and a trader, but in the case of Simandou I suspect a sale will still be the prefered option. Developing Zanaga with partners (fortescue etc.) is always going to be a practical option and one that they will use to get a full price from a buyer.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2017-12-14-glencore-could-buy-if-the-price-is-right/

Glencore currently has a market cap of about $ 20 billion, so a sale would make a big difference to them and (in my view) will be very carefully managed. Their reference would obviously be the prices bid for Simandou last year. I don't see them selling cheap.

The spot price of Iron Ore has improved, partly due to supply issues (Vale) and partly due to China promoting infrastructure spending to support their economy. However, in the US and Europe the picture looks challenging to say the least.

Buyers of these iron ore mines care little about the current iron ore price, its the forward price that matters. As a reference consider the futures price for 62% iron ore October 2020 is currently trading at about $120 and December 2023 is about $75.

As the world economy improves, we should see that futures price improve significantly, and with that many of the minging deals should follow.

From the point of view of Glencore and China my guess is that neither can deal now.

Glencore, because it will want a higher price than it could get currently. On the other hand China is happy to pay a large price, but would not want to buy at what might be the top of the cycle.

"Serious, sophisticated potential buyers will recognise that there's a misprice"

If we agree with Extrader then we have to consider that - "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" (Keynes) and the corollary to Keynes - even if we (the serious sophisticated investors) know that an asset is cheap, it can get even cheaper!

The Congolese get 10% of profits, so you might think they would be keen to see the project started.

On the other hand, a sale might be an opportunity for them to sell their 10% for an up for a upfront payment.

Personally, I am not expecting a sale until it is obvious that the world economy is recovering from Covid 19 (in which case the forecast of future iron ore prices will be much higher).

The point about the impact of additional production on iron ore prices is that it makes more sense for a Chinese steel producer to buy (Simandou or Zanaga) as they would benefit from lower prices vs. pure miner (e.g. BHP, Fortescue, Glencore).

It is all rather weird, such a dramatic downgrade yet the Mako share price has hardly moved.

Showmethemoneysh - In my view you have to factor in the fundamental change in this project since the Asian Energy days. Essentially Asian Energy wanted to dig up all the coal and export it via a new railway and a new port. This was an easy decision to put this on the back burner. What was in it for Bangladesh and Hasina (politically)?

Bangladesh need Energy, the economy has been growing at 8% a year (doubling every 8 to 10 years), they have little money and the (cheap) local Gas is fast running out. Recently there has been huge resistance to imported gas / coal as much more expensive than the domestic gas).

Domestic coal and the search for more domestic gas are very much on the agenda.

In essence HeardItAllBefore thinks that Sheikh Hasina will not permit the GCM project to go ahead even if it is in the best interests of Bangladesh because she is a "basket case".

"It only matters what the basket case Bangla Govt and Hasina thinks"

In addition anyone who does not agree with him is "simple or stupid or both".

Neither assertion is correct IMHO.

Discussion of changes to 2016 PCMP / new PCMP. Phulbari open pit coal gets several mentions as cheaper than imported coal / gas / etc.

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/NTM4Mg%3D%3D/article-title?q=experts+for+realistic+review+of+master+plan

I base my comments on the RNS of 30 August 2019.

I guess the only way that the share price could be an issue is for tax reasons - i.e. higher value more personal tax.

The the retention fee in October 2019 and December 2020 is a fixed number of shares (2,833,334), on each occasion. The team members have agreed to take their fee in shares - so it makes no difference what the prevailing share price is. The only reason that the number of shares would change is if a team member were to leave (and therefore not get his/her retention fee).

Prairie Mining Arbitration against Poland. A game for billions of compensations

https://newsbeezer.com/polandeng/prairie-mining-arbitration-against-poland-a-game-for-billions-of-compensations/

This Flinders mines project is estimated at 52% average grade, so no comparison to Simandou, Zanaga, Vale etc.

http://flindersmines.com/wp-content/uploads/015_FMS_PIOP_MRE-_1-March-2018.pdf

Metal markets caught out by strength of Chinese stimulus

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-metals-ahome/column-metal-markets-caught-out-by-strength-of-chinese-stimulus-idUKKBN25G1QH

A nice paper against imported coal/gas and in favour of Phulbari.

"It is high time we set aside our misgivings about the development of our own proven coal deposits."

"Of all the coal mines in the country, Phulbari is the only field ready to be mined seriously. This is where investors are willing to invest. Work on all other fields should be started simultaneously. It is the lack of a political decision that has hindered progress on coal development and exploration, and it is time to correct the historic mistake of not going for own coal a decade ago."

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/NTExNg%3D%3D/article-title?q=quest+for+national+energy+security

If China Baowu Steel Group manages to form a consortium of steel groups to bid for Chinalco’s 40% (of 50% of) Simandou - would this consortium go on to look at other African iron-ore mines ?

https://www.miningmx.com/news/ferrous-metals/42726-rio-tinto-ceo-says-guineas-simandou-iron-ore-project-is-being-progressed/

Which Fund Manager can invest in a firm with a £50 million market cap in the post- Woodford era ?

For comparision a top rated "Small Companies" fund manager has an average market cap of £ 1,700 million for 9 out of 10 of his largest holdings.

At least so far the market is nt impressed by the potential here. The glass half empty seems to be the current view. The key question is where the equity will come from (and there will need to be equity). The worry is that like many AIM shares they will try to raise the absolute minimum (at each occasion) via a placing or some sort of convertible, which would dilute existing holders significantly. However, the better approach is to move to the main market and bring in institutional money at a significant premium to the current price - why not 200 million at £1 a share if the numbers stack up ?