Member Info for 42trader

Q3 update: Financing coming together, progress at site
BUY
Target price 40p | Published price 15p | *Corporate Client of Liberum

In its Q2 progress report Sirius reiterated its expectation for Stage 2 financing to be completed by the end of September. Once the bond offering and RCF documents are complete and the agencies have delivered a public rating, the company will be in a position to push ahead with marketing the bond. Completion of the $500m bond would unlock the $2.5bn revolver from JPM and largely eliminate financing risk, a significant component of its 78% discount to NPV (68p), as we highlighted in our last note. On the ground progress remains on time and on budget. BUY.

Bond offering document, public rating and RCF documentation all

The three main components to complete ahead of launching the $500m bond are finalising the bond offering document, completion of the RCF documentation and finally the receipt of a public rating from the rating agencies. The company is hopeful these can be completed in time to allow it commence the roadshow ahead of August holidays, but is dependent on a number variables and third parties.
The offering document will incorporate updated technical reports for the full 13mt per annum Stage 1 production, rather than just the 10mt operation included in the equity offering. Based on preliminary discussions a B rating is being targeted.

Progress continues at site
Progress at site continues. A few highlights include:
• Service shaft foreshaft sunk to 45m, enabling excavation of main shaft down to 85m, soon to be 120m.
• Production shaft on target to complete construction of the foreshaft and excavation of the main shaft to 120m by year end.
• Tunnel Boring Machine launched at Wilton and 210m into the tunnel. Lockwood Beck access shaft pre-sunk to 37m.
• Civil works for the Material Handling Facillity have commenced at the port site.
• Granulation trials have been completed at Teeside, with the test plant now decommissioned in preparation to a full R&D demonstration plant.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=30875838351854380771.png

Decided to buy a few this morning. Shorts have dropped to 2.55% and weekly trend line is showing a bounce.
If the trend line does not hold though, 204 (support) will be the next likely stop where I will happily double up.

Better odds sticking it all on black.

Try and be nice here people. What people need to understand is not everyone is honest and you should take everything with a bucket of salt that is written on the boards.
The potential of the share price is very good if the contracts land. But also remember how many times the company has gone through the process of landing a big one and to date, NOT one has landed. So you have to understand investors taking small profits.
As for the T-line, I studied it a long time ago. It’s ok. But just one indicator. I would not rely on it but do still use it with multiple other factors. For me, the most accurate for judging entries would be support/resistance levels. But each to their own.
Gla

If you are going to use over bought indicators then use RSI and Stoch and then on a weekly chart. If good news comes though, these indicators can be ignored.

Well some big trades going through as sells but they are buys. Someone is loading up and they are slowly grabbing the shares when they can to fill the order.

Placement? Possible at some stage. Who knows. But odds on this will go to 20p-30p range soon. As for £1, well I'm not sure I'm brave enough to hold to that price.

Now its 12.75 to buy and just 12.35 to sell, so they have widened the spread making it dearer to buy. Should tick up soon.
There is resistance here but nothing major. 200 ema is at 15p and major resistance at the 20p level.
Hold and wait I think.

Very quiet. Probably to do with the lse site problems.

Dummy trades of 12.55p to buy and 12.31p to sell. Most of the recorded sells are buys.
Got a feel to it that large order is being filled?

This is very true. You are either a glass half full or a glass half empty.

Morning Wassatt. How are you feeling today?

I got the same abuse on STAF because I warned people there. I’m a bad man.

A good broker report out today saying way over sold.
Unfortunately, when a share tanks, it is very hard to stop it.
Currently the share price is bouncing of some minor support but the major support level is just above 600p.
Will certainly be a good buy at that level.

If this does turn out to be a dream deal, what investors need to understand is the knock on effect. It will help to open up many more doors.

Might be worth removing any limits set or raise them.

Anyone getting wet yet?

True, but then next years PBT is forecast at £36.6m and 2020 £21.7m. EBITDA of £45.9m (2019) and £28.4m (2020). DEBT of £85m and £70m respectively.
The share price can't be far of some value now but with the way the company is not exactly "honest", do investors actually believe anything the bod say? Will there or will there not be more bad news?
I think what angela is trying to say is, it will take a while for investors to trust this company again. Trust and a rise in the sp will come though with no more surprises and actual figures over the next few years. Investors and in particular ii, will remember what has happened here for some time.

True, but the forecast has already been updated from 96m to 120m and now its beating that.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=72963851807830621675.png

Good volume today.
From purely a technical view this share has been good for strong bounces.
As seen from the chart, there is resistance at approx 20p as well as top of trend line. If it can break that then 25p-30p followed by 35p will likely occur.
Going beyond that will take further news imo but from this level the sp is likely to double at least.

gla

Hi, yes.

Hydrodec has released an encouraging AGM statement this morning with a number of positive developments which should start to crystallise the upside in the shares, notably the sale of the Australian operations and the potential addition of a complimentary product that could drive higher utilisation earlier than previously expected. The utility focus and market developments are also making progress, justifying the Group’s strategy and the Board remains confident in the outlook for 2019 and beyond. Reiterate buy.

The Group has announced that it has agreed in principle the sale of the Australian plant for A$2m (US$1.4m but excluding decommissioning and associated costs). The expected closing date for the transaction is 30 June. While the disposal proceeds are below our expectations of US$2m, we welcome the transaction and see a small incremental positive development in the licensing and royalty payments to Hydrodec which are not factored in to current forecasts.

New supplies of feedstock to the Canton plant are at record levels with a number of new suppliers now delivering to the facility. As such, refining volumes are ahead of 2018 levels of c. 50% utilisation and accelerating towards our current year forecast of 70% utilisation.

Hydrodec has identified a complimentary product line with a large existing market, using parrafinic feedstock (instead of napthenic). While the main focus remains on building up the napthenic feedstock supplies to drive SUPERFINE sales, the Group is currently negotiating to purchase parrafinic feedstock to market new products, raising nearterm utilisation which should ultimately be accretive to earnings.

We make no change to forecasts at this time. Hydrodec trades on 4.1x EV/EBITDA, 7.7x P/E, 6.9% dividend yield and a 16% FCF yield (all 2020E). We believe the existing assets and potential for high cash returns are extremely attractive to equity investors at current levels and reiterate our buy rating and 100p price target.