Analyst report30 Jul 2019 23:44
INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH
Centrica
Gas-Distribution / UK
CEO steps down, dividend slashed
Earnings/sales releases - 30/07/2019
FY18 had raised concerns about the sustainability of the dividend, and Centrica has finally cut it by nearly 60% after the catastrophic figures for H1. The group has announced its intention to exit from oil and gas production in order to refocus its activities on services around the transition to low-carbon. The group tried to reassure about the outlook for H2, confirming its cash flow and net debt full-year targets.
Fact
• Adjusted operating cash flow down 32% to £744m • Adjusted operating profit down 49% to £399m
• Adjusted EPS down 63% to 2.4p
• Net debt up 17% to £3.3bn
• Full dividend down 58% to 5p
Analysis
Consumer division, 60% of adjusted operating profit
The division’s adjusted operating profit was down 44% to £240m, due to the implementation of the price cap in the UK and fierce competition from smaller suppliers. Energy supply customer accounts in the UK fell by 178k, due to the high customer churn in March following the announcement of an increase in the default tariff cap, but the group has tried to be reassuring for H2 as it sees the slight increase in May and June as a potential inflection point.
Exploration & production, 37% of adjusted operating profit
The division suffered from lower achieved gas sales prices (-14% on average for gas) as well as lower gas (-6%) and liquids (-12%) production. Consequently, adjusted operating income from Spirit Energy was down 42% to £90m and CSL’s by 43% to £58m.
Financial position
To reach its adjusted operating cash flow guidance (£1.8bn-£2.0bn) the group increased its cost efficiency target by £250m (to £1bn) backed by digitalisation and employee reductions of between 1,500 and 2,000 (or a mid-point representing around 5% of the total staff at the end of 2018). And for the net debt target, capital investment guidance has been reduced by £100m to £0.9bn, which should be partially financed by the targeted £500m non-core divestments. But, most importantly, the group cut its dividend by nearly 60% to 5p.
2019-22
In addition to the already announced disposal of its stake in nuclear plants in the UK, an exit of the oil and gas activities is now planned, with the aim to refocus its business on energy supply and services around the low carbon transition. In H2, the group should benefit from the absence of the one-off price cap impact, and from the restarts of Hunterston B and Dungeness B. In the longer run, earnings should benefit from the £1bn annual cost reduction targeted over the period and the dividend is now linked to earnings and operating cash flow growth.
Auguste DERYCKX LIENART