RE: Results18 Jun 2019 11:22
Forecasts
Following the acquisition of the Australian business in December 2017, a new General Manager was appointed to head up the Australian business. After some execution issues, the General Manager left in October 2018; furthermore, the vendors of Kinetic decided to move on before the end of their earn out period (foregoing potential deferred consideration of AU$0.5m). Internal promotion has steadied the ship and the last quarter of trading was
encouraging.
Nevertheless, the expected net effect is a reduction in revenue expectations from Australia of £1.0m, and of EBITDA by £0.2m. Alongside review of performance in the whole group, with a focus on margin quality, we review group revenue £-1.29m, and EBITDA by £-0.14m; however, with lower D&A, adjusted PBT remains unchanged; and with lower tax, Adj dil. EPS improves 4%.
Dividend expectations are in line for FY19 forecasts. We had assumed an increase with payment of both interim and final dividend in FY20; and a more normal 10% growth rate from 10%. However, on reflection and discussion with management, a consistent 10% growth rate with room to upgrade is considered more prudent, focusing on debt repayment and capacity for M&A as well as emphasising cashflow discipline with a growing dividend.