Member Info for 34DegSth

J58

my take (with no mention of the Cr and PGM Earnings split in the RNS!):

- Re. existing 1.8mt of surface material – I’m assuming that these are Tailings, of which PlatCro has already had an attempt to remove the Coarse Cr (no attempt yet re. Cr FC or PGM removal)? – of which JBL Already has the rights to ALL PGM Earnings (was 1.25mt, now 1.8mt+)? – Jubilee would however have had to pay for the additional accrued material (1.8mt less the already purchased 1.25mt) - assuming that JBL now, re. this Cr ‘Plant’ Purchase now has the rights to All Cr Earnings (Coarse and FC) re. this material?

- Re. 3rd Party ROM (not Tailings, but virgin freshly mined/un-processed ore) – all PGM Earnings to JBL?? - Re. Cr Earnings, can only hope for a similar deal as per at DCM where JBL retains 50% of ALL Cr Earnings regardless of Source, but could be lower% or a Tolling arrangement….???

- RE. future (still to be mined) PlatCro ROM – similar to above??

Leon and team must have massive faith in your Fine Chrome processing, hence the speed re. moving for this acquisition!!!

TBTT

agreed, but the current demand for V is now very different - the Chinese are tightening their controls re. the use of Rebar in the Construction Industry (ie. now using far more V), the V Redox battery is massively exciting (currently only making up 5% of the V market and rising fast), and a lot of the V miners have cut production re the prior low V prices (ie ~ $6/lb was the break-even point), and as such should take a few years for some of these miners to come back into the fray - Demand should therefore exceed supply by a fair amount for the next few years

As an Electrical Engineer, I'm very excited re. the V Redox batteries - used in high power storage (ie. grid) applications, and dont degrade for up to 20 years, etc etc, so the demand should be massive - the Chinese are currently investing heavily, ...

R_C - the gist of my prior post was to show the Delta between Revenue and Cost re. V - agree V2O5 98% is a different animal to BMNs product, but the Sales Prices and Costs dynamics have similarities - hence my post!

Hi Ivans

BMN (Bushveld Minerals) is purely a Vanadium miner (74% ownership of Sojitz mine) - its SP has increased 6X these last 8 mths, purely as result of V's meteoric increase in price (now $33.20/lb, and rising) - all re. one operation, re. a single metal!

JLP on the other hand, has not only Vanadium (yes, still many unanswered IFs), but also many other metals from numerous other Projects. As per BMRs (not BMN) RNS [Kabwe Tailings JORC Analysis] of Jan 2017, JLP (Kabwe) has 45,000t of V in the Tailings, and IF JLP were to extract over say 10-14 years, then JLP's V production would match what BMN are currently producing (ie. BMNs Current Production is 2500t/pa yielding over $240m/pa in Revenue)!!

BMN's Q3 Ops Update is available, and can? be used as a yardstick as per what to expect IF JLP Produce V (V2O5) from the Kabwe Tailings - ie. BMNs Costs to extract are ~$8/lb (vs a current Sales Price of $33.20/lb), making it a very lucrative/profitable venture. BMN is also a miner, so would have additional Mining Costs vs Extracting from Surface Tailings, and one would expect that JLP would be better/similar re. Efficiencies of extraction.

Lots of IFs, but ....

Thx Boz

hoping though, that the 2nd Purchase of the CGA occurs Before Makhado starts Production (~15-18mths away?) - and that its another quality asset similar to Uitkomst, with DB and team thoroughly continuing with their thorough analysis/DD of potential targets (my take is that it'll be a non-listed company)

Uitkomst also 'taking shape', such that it, by itself could possibly cover ALL MC costs (shoddy contractor gone, new equip., with far greater efficiencies, etc) - with NAdit Prod a year away?)

Very encouraged by your feedback re. 2/3 GSB MR's this year (2018)! - with GSB Reserves 4.5X that of Makhado - with Makhado 16X that of Uitkomst!!! I clearly remember MCM (CZA) SP increaasing (X7) off of a low base with Makhado MR awarded

China currently has a massive appetite for quality coal (since they've shut down all of their nasty/inferior quality coal mines) - very strong relationship between China and SA Govmt, especially with their eye on SA's minerals (particularly coal), and SA Govmt also seem to be very partial to MCM, which bodes very very well for MCM, as MCM has massive quality reserves

Exciting times ahead

Cheers
34DS

Hi Boz, yes many thanks for attending and providing this detailed update - would like to have attended but travelling 10,000kms is a bit far!

re. the CGA Aquisition: could you please indicate what is meant by '... Nothing new but it’s now a 3rd not 2nd CGA.'? does the development of the Uitkomst NAdit count as the 2nd CGA?

Hi BB
Transport in CapeTown
- Uber
- MyCiti - public bus system running on dedicated 'red concrete roads'
- hop-on-hop-off (Topless Tourist buses)
- if staying in CT, Waterfront, then 90% of what you'll visit do, will be within walking distance

Hi BB

you are going to be pleasantly surprised

The crime is not as bad as perceived, with most of the serious crime taking place in the 'townships' (ie. shacks, etc.) - there are hijackings, but mostly up north in Johannesburg/etc. - just need to be vigilant and steer clear of problem areas

Cape Town (and Stellenbosch - 50-60km away) is absolutely stunning. Stellenbosch/Franschoek is in the heart of the wine-lands, and looks very similar to the Swiss-alps

The Waterfront (very popular with tourists) is very centrally located re. Cape Town, with Camps Bay 7 kms away (10-15 mins). I'd also recommend Cape Town itself, with most within walking distance.

Jan/Feb is probably the warmest part of the year.

Cheers
34DS

appreciate the constructive debate of late

my 5c's:

my take is that Leon & co have themselves delayed the DCM PGM plant until they cracked the FC process - Leon did say it took their expert design team 24 mths to do so - also, he's also previously stated the the PGM extraction is easier/more efficient once all of the chrome has first been removed

Very keen to see the FC numbers post Nov/Q4, on the proviso that (Costs<<Revenue) - a 52% yield is massive - ie. on top of the already achieved 24% yield re. their prior chrome removal from the tailings (1 t per 4.25t) - one must also note that the material IS Tailings, and ASA already had a prior attempt to remove chrome - so (24% plus 52%) from Tailings will be remarkable - if successful, then the skys the limit, as there must be many eyes (Cr miners) watching this space

I'm also very keen to see the take-on of the 3rd party ROM at DCM - my take re. the delay, is perhaps related to 'contamination' - ie. a problem related to keeping the various sources of material separate - the Cr yield from virgin material (excl FC) should be far better than 1 per 4.25, and JLP retains 100% of PGMs as well - Hopefully once the FC is operational and successful, we'll see movement re. the ROM from 3rd party miners

Really interesting article from ADVFN - a lot of which is from World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), JP Morgan and Johnson Matthey (ie. heavy-weights in the Pt world) - Http://www.sprott.com/insights/the-platinum-opportunity-part-2/ - with specific reference to:

1) Fig 2 (from WPIC) - showing dwindling Above Ground Pt Stockpile!!! 2018 should have far lower levels - very 'elusive info/data' - massively important factor re. the direction of the Pt price

2) Pt Supply/Demand/Above-Ground Stockpile now very similar characteristics to Pd a few years ago - ie. prior to Pd exploding from $200/oz to the current $1080/oz

3) typical PGM make-up re. South African Reefs - ie. 58% Pt; 32% Pd; 8% Rh (ie. could possibly use re. our Hernic; PlatCro & DCM)

4) JP Morgan's prediction of Pressure (as per low Pt prices, high & increasing SA labour costs) on SA miners to drastically cut Supply (ie. possibly 30% cut in Supply by 2020!!

etc

-

The only reason that Pd is the predominant active metal in Catalytic Converters (CCs) in Gasoline powered vehicles, is that Pd WAS considerably cheaper than Pt. Pt is FAR SUPERIOR to Pd as the active metal in Gasoline powered vehicles. 2009 (Pd = $200/oz; Pt = $1300/oz) 2016 (Pd = $500/oz; Pt = $1000/oz). Now/2018 (Pd = $1130/oz; Pt = $830/oz)!!! Re. Diesel powered vehicles, Pt is the active metal of choice in CCs, regardless of price, due to run time characteristics

This has probably created an interesting dilemma with CC Manufacturers ...

Jonah58, BB,

Re. Kabwe, my main concern is the uncertainty re. Leon updating the market re. the latest re. the arrangement between JLP and the Zam Govmt!

JLP's Yields re. extracting both PGMs and CrConc are however rather good. If the Fine Chrome can add a furrther 52% yield (ie. just over 2X that of the already impressive 1t per 4.25t from Cr Tailings at DCM), then there should be a high degree of certainty re. JLP achieving high yields re. both Zn and Pb. Leon's Kabwe updates have mainly been about the Zn and Pb components, with the V component being a little sketchy. Secondly, a few posted photos re. the actual Kabwe Construction to date would help.

In summary, massive potential, BUT with a few yet unanswered IFs

I'd suggest that we all give Leon the benefit of the doubt in the interim (ie. re. Kabwe, FC, PlatCro, etc.) - Hernic's been rather successful - $8m/pa earnings to JLP with prod at only 80% (2000oz/pm) and at these paltry Pt prices (ie. ~ $800/oz re. Q3) is a success story on its own!<br /><br />Re. Kabwe, my take is that Leon will vastly minimise Capex (and Risk) with this approach- ie. medium sized capacity (up to 37,500t/pm at both Kabwe and nearby refinery), and use the Earnings to build a fair-sized facility at Kabwe thereafter - ie. no need to tap into the available $50m Available Funding Facility, of which wont be free - and with a shortened timespan to Earnings The calculation of the Zn Earnings pm alone re. this sized facility could be substantial - ie. Zn Earnings to Jubilee pm = 37,500t/m x 0.1066 [known JORC] x 0.5 [Yield, Guessimate] x (1 - 0.3) [Earnings/Revenue] x $2,656/t = a handsome amount of earnings to JLP pm re. Zn alone!!!!<br /><br />Re. DCM, I'm also of the opinion that JLP have purposely delayed the Build of the PGM plant until they cracked the Fine Chrome Design/Processes - Leon himself stated that its taken the team 2 years to finalise - Operational from Nov, with Operating Costs unknown - Yield of 52% is staggering (awaiting proof) - thats over 2X the Tailings Yield!!!<br /><br />Vigenere, agree, the V2O5 98% (Chn) price is taking off - was $25/il last week, and now $30.7/lb, and rising fast - 45000t at this price is over $3bn of material (yield and cost to extract still unknown)<br /><br />

Bozmo
could u pls assist me and provide the link re. this 40 min DB chat?

Sandman99 (& Bozmo – keen to receive your feedback/link re. my post on Tues 16 Oct),

That’s what I read as well – however, Bozmo indicated in his post of 27 Sep (refer point 3), that David Brown [DB] gave a 40 min chat after the release of their results, and indicated that he (DB) was expecting the award of the GSB MR this next quarter (Oct-Dec) – refer to Bozmo’s point 3 re. this 40 min chat (ie. ‘3) Reminder that GSP asset is huge – should get Mining Rights within next quarter;’)

- Hence my request to Bozmo for the link to this DB 40 min chat

Hi Bozmo
do you have the link to the 40min DB Results Presentation that you refer to in your post of 27 Sep? I couldn't find it on the MCM site!

Hemmings8

Eagerly awaiting your reply - I've not seen any correspondence re. 'GSP MR completion by end Sep, nor the Admin Error, ...' (not in June Results/Presentation; MiningMX news; Creamer Media; etc.) Could you please indulge me as per the source of your information in this regard

The only reason that I visit these sites is such that I can pick up on any information/detail that I've missed ...

Hemmings8
where did you obtain the indication that 'I believe they were hoping to have GSP mining rights completed by end of September. Was signed off but admin error meant needed to be redone'?

Hi Vigenere

Commodities & Currencies are massively difficult to predict - no analysts predicted a drop in oil prices from the decade-long 'fixed' $110/bll down to $20/bll, very few predicted that it would be back above 80 in a few years - the same applies to Pt

as in the case of Miners/Tailings-Processors, JM are Price-Takers, and as such have no control over the price, hedging apart :-( - whats exciting re. JM is that they are diversifying across metals - Vd, Co are in vogue as per Supply shortages, whilst Zn/Pb are predicted to rise by another 10-20% in near-term, and who knows re. Pt

Vd has had a few spikes since 1980, with the current high prices being the latest - whats different this time is the ramp-up in Chinese use for Rebar, and the use in the high power batteries - certainly looks as if this spike will be higher and last for longer, but who knows ..

Au - tongue-in-cheek banter from your side?? :-)

My only negativity re. JLP these last 2 years is re. DCM - Prod was roaring, then the brakes were applied 12 mths ago- the Fine Chrome looks promising - keen to see them take on 3rd party ROM and see the numbers (ie. virgin unprocessed material [ie. far higher Cr yield than prev proc Tailings!!], with 50% Cr priofit and 100% PGM profit to JLP) - the delay in the uptake of the 3rd party ROM could be the problem of keeping the two streams separate, relative to the size of the area available - we should know in the next few months

Best of Luck to You Too - Cheers 34DS

Hi Vigenere

fully agree - V2O5 was $7/lb a year ago, to $26.9/lb now - massive supply shortage (lots of literature available), as per high growth in demand (Chn Rebar, high power Batteries) - However, still a lot of uncertainty re. Kabwe, whilst we all eagerly await the figures from JBL (design/prod/financials) - Leon again stated in 13 Sep DirTlk Interview that '... JBL Processes/Soln's could Dramatically Improve the Situation of the Project' - higher yields, reduced costs, etc. - almost too good to be true!!

Its pointless re. us posting our thoughts, until Leon posts more info (next few days?) - in the interim, I'm in the 'Glass-Half-Full' camp, but with a few doubts

I'm also in the camp that PGM prices will rebound - hopefully with some improvement by when PlatCro/Northam and DCM PGM production peaks - later in 2019?

Kabwe's Vd @45000t, with say a 55% Yield, 30% Cost (vs Revenue), over say 10 years (50t/h - ie. similar to Hernic), @ today's $26.9/lb (higher in late 2019, onward) yields a MIGHTY BIIIIIIG NUMBER (Profit)

?? - $102m loss this last year (2018, to June), of which includes a mammoth Vele Impairment of $87.5m!! Forecasts are merely predictions re. the future - I do however see potential in MCM, on the proviso progress is made on a few fronts ... as per my prev post, the current coal supply deficit will not be last forever