Member Info for 34DegSth

Based on Leon's Jan comments that with Pd @ $1400/oz (then), that Pd made up 40% of the Hernic PGM REVENUE. Based on this, it doesn't take rocket science to calculate (using a simple 3E PGM model - its could be 4E, higher) that the distribution is 57% Pt, 33% Pt, and 10% Rh

- the Hernic PGM basket price is now $200/oz higher than Q4/2018 (PURE PROFIT) - that's $6m EXTRA PROFIT for JMs at Hernic alone (if JMs still rec 100% of Earnings, and at avg of 2500oz/pm) - JMs do sell their product pre Smelting and Refining to Lonmin (~$200+/oz less than Basket-price), but the above still holds re. extra profit - Unsure though, if Lonmin's charge is a FIXED $/oz charge, or whether it increases as the Basket price rises

Translate that extra $200/oz over say 85,000oz/pa (when PlatCro and DCM producing)

Imagine Pd = $2000/oz (reachable); Pt = $1200/oz (not that far fetched); Rh = $3500/oz (near) - this translates to an extra $603/oz of PURE PROFIT for JMs! Over 85,000oz (possible???) translates to an extra $51.2m pa of PURE PROFIT - On top of the already healthy Earnings/Profit

Yes, there are still a few dark clouds about, but things could change very positively very fast - OR NOT???

agreed - 'patience' being the operative word!

This ultra-lite version Ph1 of Makhado Lite makes sense - having to truck this 2Mtpa to Vele (and then bring the empty trucks back) is a negative (a little further than trucking the end product from Makhado to Musina, if the plant was built at Makhado) - at least this preps Vele for the future SEZ initiative - Cyril and co took a little flak locally from other parties re. the SEZ talk, and are perhaps waiting for the May elections to be over - does anyone know why MCM can't ALSO process Vele material with this trucked-in Makhado material at Vele?

$30m Equity raise is far better than $120m+ - whatever happened to the $85m Loan arrangement offered by the Chinese?

Fully agree MH:
Leon made 2 separate References re. this from his previous talks:
- 10 Dec 2018 Dir Talk (from 3:46 '... to Gain Access to a Zn Refinery ...'), and
- 18 Jan 2019 Dir Talk (from 4.50 ' ... to secure the Adjacent Refinery ...)'
as per my previous posts - my take is that they have changed their stance re. reporting frequently as per every single 'happening' and are now only reporting say after each Q update, or major occurance - and as such, may have ALREADY secured/gained access to this/these Refineries

Just a thought ...

Leon and co. have continually provided a constant flow of updates - most of these updates are very encouraging, BUT do no contain proof of actual growth in earnings, and as such each time they provide an update, the SP retracts back each time after the initial upward move

Perhaps Leon and co. are tired of this, and are now WAITING to provide an update that DOES contain actual proof of growth in earnings/and proof of new earning streams

I personally believe that the next update WILL contain very good news, and this proof of Growth in Earnings as well as new Earning streams - perhaps only in the Q1 update say ~ 17 April, of which is only 5 weeks away
Patience is required

PS. the 'debates' on this and other boards between the naysayers and believers are a TOTAL WASTE OF TIME, without proof or a Referee!!! The underlying thread to debating is good reasoning based on sound facts and logic, of which is sorely missing here/other boards

a pleasure BB/BoUK

BB, I've translated every word that Leon has spoken from Interviews, Webcasts, etc. into text! Quite laborious, but worthwhile - and from this, have pieced together the jigsaw, to create a reasonably good picture

Re. the 'silence' from JMs - my take is that the access to Glencore's Sable Refinery at Kabwe is out of JMs control, and totally dependent on Glencore - I'm also hoping that the Zm Govmt is applying pressure on Glencore (ie. from taxes owed, Clean-up still outstanding, Job losses, etc.) My take is that the other news, of which JMs DO have control over (ie. FC progress at DCM, PlatCro [except for the possible Refining delay by Northams at Elands], etc. will be relayed in the next week or so., as per the Results update)

Hi BB/All
- the Revenue figure quoted includes the Shipping cost (to China?) re. this Cr2O5 Conc 98% that is sold
- there's been wild price fluctuations these last few years re. this sales price (ie. from ~ $80/t to just over $300/t) - JMs made a small loss this last Q where sales Price (incl shipping) was less than their Costs
- now that they have finished the Processing of the Coarse Cr from the Tailings at DCM, and are now processing the FC, Profitability should (IF, ???) ramp-up drastically - ie. 8000t/pm of FC from 25kt processed, is far greater than 9kt prod/per Q from ~45kt
- also - they should also now finally be able to take on the 3rd party ROM now that the Coarse Cr from Tailings is finalised - ie. it would have been a nightmare for them to keep all of these different feeds separate!!! - note that JM retain 50% of ALL Cr2O5 prod, Regardless of Source - also, the 3rd party ROM is virgin material, so the Coarse Cr yields will be far greater than yields of previously processed tailings ...

Still many IFs and Assumptions - JMs now has MASSIVE, MASSIVE Potential BUT always waiting for them to dissapoint - hoping they won't - fingers crossed - the silence of late from them is deafening!

Aquila - v/nice! - nice shortish drive on the N1 through the tunnel - was probably a little warmer than CT!! :-) The N1 north of Aquila/Touws Rivier (to Johannesburg) is rather dangerous (lots of accidents)

Yes, England have had a super start to the 6N's - another tough game for you on Sat - must say, that until SA get an int'l (NZ!) coach, I've lost a lot of interest! I was born in and lived in the UK for 14 yrs, so still follow English sport

Hope u enjoy the wedding Fri in Stellies - there's a military show at my home suburb (Blouberg/Westbeach) on Thurs., of which should be fun, of which you should have quite a view of from CT

Cheers
34DS

its an interesting dilemma that the CC producers are facing - the high deficit re. Pd is predicted to last at least until 2024! - the only reason that inferior Pd was chosen over Pt, was that it WAS half the price of the superior Pt (re. gasoline vehicles). Switching now to Pt, could also lead quickly to a Pt supply deficit, which would also quickly push up the price of Pt, and they'd be in the same boat again!

Even at these highly elevated Pd prices, the total cost of the CC as a percentage of the cost of a gas powered MV isn't that high, so there should be some price elasticity that could sustain or even push the price higher. Either way, its great news for JMs, and its been a LOOOOONG WAIT for these supply issues to surface (Pd and Rh) .

PS. BB, how was/is your stay in Cape Town?

Agreed MH - the Mining Indaba Presentation definitely creates that impression (ie. that they've perfected a new Cu/Co waste recovery approach, and its about to be tested in the real world) - any idea as per the size of the Tailing's there? - agreed in that it could be the perfect size project to test this in practice, especially with one of the large players!

MH - it does, BUT the indicated Target production (as per this link) of 55kt/pa of Cu and 6.8kt/pa of Co isn't that spectacular - if JM were to partner ERG, and were only lending their process skill set and expertise, then not a massive take-home for JM - I'm assuming that JM would either earn via Toll-processing payment or a % of Earnings (say ~15-20% guesstimate), of which isn't massive - unless the 55kt/pa & 6.8kt/pa are far short of what could be produced

Zambia's Sentinel (300kt/pa of CU) and Kansanshi (270kt/pa), NW of Kitwe and Kabwe, both owned by First Quantum), are far larger Cu producers - BUT First Quantum is not one of the 3 partners that JM alluded to

Disagree - I'd welcome a 'Partnership' with a Major to process 'Their' Tailing's using 'Their Capital' using JMs Processes and Expertise - this would most definately be a step in the right direction with a Major recognising JM! - ie. in parallel to JM moving toward acquiring Glencore's Refinery at Kabwe

looking good - on the proviso that Coal prices hold (HCC has definate supply issues, so should be ok for at least until Makhado is up and producing) ...

agreed - a pathetic piece of journalism - quote: 'Another is to process PGMs at Northam Platinum’s Eland concentrator, described by Coetzer as a world first on extracting fine chrome.' etc, etc.

Hi BB

ICON Bldg - I know it well - it's very well situated from a tourist perspective - ie. lower central (newer part of) CT - within walking distance to the Waterfront - your building also has a 'Food-Lovers-Market' on the Gnd Flr (selling all prepared foods - ie. Sushi, pizza, pies, fruit, etc)

Hi BB

hope u enjoy the wedding in Stellenbosch (where Leon studied ChemEng!) - my brother's also a ChemEng, but we went to the English university in CT (UCT)

windy again in CT until Thurs, with temps also rising - where are u staying in CT?

don't forget the granting of the 2 remaining MR's at GSB! talk was that these were due Dec/Jan?

... and the development of the NAdit at UitKomst ... however, need to improve the current efficiencies re. the current mining activities there beforehand ..

I live in Cape Town, South Africa, and as a local, certain references to SA places and terminology are incorrect:
- 'Johannesburg' is locally referred to as Jo'burg, and definately NOT Jo,Berg
- 'Cape Town' correct, whereas 'Cape town' is not
- 'Afrikaan' is meaningless - whereas 'Afrikaans' or Afrikaner's is not!

There's also been severe wind in Cape Town for 3 days, finally ceasing this morning, with NO vessels being able to leave any Cape Town harbour, so doubt that anyone would have been onboard ....

Today is the first increase in the V2O5 98% price, since coming-off its lofty peak late last year - https://www.vanadiumprice.com/ - now $15.70/lb (China) & $20.15/lb (Europe)

I've researched many an article re. V supply/demand, and based on what I've read is that there will be supply shortages for at least 3 years. Demand for V is also very healthy, with China's law changes re. the higher use of alloys (mainly V) in Rebar re. their construction industry (the main use/demand re. V), of which should boost demand somewhat. The very exciting emergence of the V Redox Flow Batteries (re. the use in high power storage applications), should also boost the demand for V (currently 5% of the market, and expected to grow somewhat) - the irony of the recent massive V price spike, was that it would have been negative re. this particular market sector .

The current V2O5 price is still lofty, but could be maintainable, of which should be massive for JM (Kabwe), where its V content is quite substantial

Hi Rosewall

A Placement/Dillution of shares is effectively taking a loan for the 'lifetime' of a company - I'd rather them buy-back shares now (whilst the SP is still deflated), as opposed to after the release of good further earnings numbers with the SP far higher.

The catch-22 situation is that these funds could also be used for further acquisitions - my take though, is that their next deal will not be an acquisition, but perhaps instead a partnership will a major (Cu/Co I hope) to process their tailings, at their capital cost, using JLP's know-how, IP, efficiencies and expertise

Fully agree J58 - re. this PlatCro deal - still lot of uncertainty, but could have MASSIVE upside - still smarting re. the further 52m share placement though

Re. acquiring 'access' to the Kabwe Refinery - my take is that it won't be a purchase, but instead Jubilee will pay for 'access' - m reasoning is based on what Leon stated at the WebCast and at yesterday's DirTalk chat - ie. Leon's references re. to ‘Secure’ and ‘Gain Access’ to this facility, does not suggest a purchase! I'd imagine that Plant Mods/Refurbishment will be required (ie. capital investment into a facility that you don’t own??)