Member Info for 1pencil

End of Oct 22

HCM 144p

3 months later 22nd Jan 23

HCM 334p

From 2mo ago

EL NIÑO IS COMING BACK...

and this is not a good news.

After 3 years of weather stress with La Niña effect, scientists confirmed that El Niño is coming back until October 2023.

Important crop regions that suffered with severe drought, will face intense rain and high temperatures. And the other way round too.

Agriculture has never been easy, but adverse climate pattern is turning it even more difficult and unstable.

Plant Health Care, Inc. has technologies that allows sustainable agriculture under biotics and non-biotics challenges, without harm to food, humans and environment.

Learn more about La Niña and El Niño effects on global agriculture and count on PHC to produce more with higher quality.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plant-health-care-inc_what-are-el-nino-and-la-nina-activity-7057438333915848704-WOPE?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Certainly would 'not' recommend this as a strategy.

Comments by Ray Dalio below;

"which have more than doubled over the past year to surpass 20 billion yuan as of January 10, 2023"

Its basically the same thing, averaging down BUT agree its not for everyone and certainly would recommend this as a strategy.

For the most part hedge funds have below market returns even the Quantum Ai funds struggle to beat the S & P, that's not one but ALL of them..

The trade for hedge funds has been to short growth equities with a long position on interest rates be it a swaps (most likely) or other financial instrument.

As mentioned, I think we will see this unwind over the next few months which should help valuations across the board, that's my hope anyway as just doubled up on HCM last few weeks.

He's a big cheese when it come to all things China and hedge funds, last year he trimmed quite a few positions including BeiGene,so this look like a reversal.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bridgewater-alibaba-didi-china-stock-price-51660598269

He knows China better than anyone, well worth following imo.

No idea if they have a holding in HCM but view this along with other indicators as a positive sign.

Ray Dalio

"Bridgewater Associates has significantly increased its fund assets in China, which have more than doubled over the past year to surpass 20 billion yuan as of January 10, 2023. This achievement makes Ray Dalio's fund the largest foreign hedge fund in Beijing. "

"BeiGene, Ltd. (NASDAQ:BGNE) is a Chinese biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of cancer medicines worldwide. The company was founded in 2010 in Beijing, China. Securities filings for Q1 2023 revealed that Ray Dalio held 132,117 shares of BeiGene, Ltd. (NASDAQ:BGNE) worth $28.4 million. It is one of Dalio’s top China stocks. "

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-china-stocks-135848581.html

Going over timelines for the last few months, and more importantly divergence from other retailer such as Boo, to give some idea in May THG and Boo we only a few pence apart.

The bumper AGM TU was released on 21st June by which time THG had moved from mid 50's to mid 70's.

Lots going on of course but perhaps the new listing rules were overlooked during this period.

The first article released on 3rd May highlights the end date of 28th June, with no objections received it becomes more inevitable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/britain-takes-further-step-towards-london-listings-overhaul.html

This fits in with THG's rise breaking away from the pack which already have regular listings so no impact on Boo or Asos.

It would be great to get some UK institutions on board, this would really help soak up the free float.

THG are now in Sector NMX452010, perhaps this is part of the consolidation of the two existing segments ? - prior to this it was something like 'computer services', its documented on here but sometime ago.

Institutions such as trackers have their own classification which is different from above.

Better example

Despite the adverse weather circumstances (heat, humidity, some storm), the images show the excellent conditions of the rice crop treated with ProAct®aa -gives a plus of profitability- and PREzym™ -optimal crop-. The photos correspond to the variety J. Sendra and have been taken in Sueca (Valencia). ProAct®aa + PREzym™

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plant-health-care-uk_pese-a-las-circunstancias-climatol%C3%B3gicas-activity-7082358782999019520-u5lz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

This from two days ago in Spain;

"Rice field Provisia system in Sueca (Valencia). On the right, rice field treated with ProAct®aa and PREzym™ at the time of broadleaf herbicide treatment, compared to untreated field (on the left). We have better vegetative and general state and much more plant uniformity"

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plant-health-care-uk_campo-de-arroz-sistema-provisia-en-sueca-activity-7084861473126068224-2uXJ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Its a worrying situation for all, extreme heat which seems to be intensifying year on year.

I would expect some overall stress benefit using ProAct and Myconate but this heat maybe a bit extreme, might be worth while checking any feedback from EDAF via social media.

How many on that list are short positions, 1% if that.

Qube Research & Technologies Ltd has disclosed 2,481 total holdings

https://fintel.io/i/qube-research-technologies

Fingers in the ears time, HK short positions close to record highs

https://www.sfc.hk/en/Regulatory-functions/Market/Short-position-reporting/Aggregated-reportable-short-positions-of-specified-shares

Here's a good example from live NASDAQ quote, currently just 200 shares to buy at 13.65

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/hcm

Its all about volumes, market makers are only obligated to sell 2000 (NMS) for the price you see on the screen, from there its by negotiation.

For example you couldn't buy $200m at 200p without an existing holder selling, buying that quantity in the market would spike the price like crazy.

Good session in HK, NASDAQ futures well up, those shorts will try to keep price steady to counter positive news.

That's very welcome news indeed, the short selling notifications has to be one of the most misleading indicators out there for investors.

Definitely a win for the small investor huurrraahh !

Carlyle’s Global Private Equity Healthcare

"Carlyle excels in driving performance through multiple levers of value creation, including international expansion, new product development, M&A, and strategic positioning strategies. Our investment strategy is underpinned by key themes that influence the global healthcare industry,"

https://www.carlyle.com/our-firm/global-private-equity/healthcare

"The Board of Directors of HUTCHMED (the "Board") is of the view that the appointment of Ms Yang would provide significant benefits to HUTCHMED taking into consideration her experience in biotechnology company management, business strategy, capital markets and mergers and acquisitions. Ms Yang had been the managing director of Carlyle and co-head of Carlyle Asia Healthcare since November 2021, in charge of advising in healthcare investment and portfolio activities of Carlyle in China. Carlyle owns approximately 4.7% of the ordinary shares of HUTCHMED, through its affiliate CA Fern Parent."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HCM/changes-to-board-and-technical-committee/16039923

THG’s trading profile has changed; L2 is very different with actual market makers on the strip for the first time in a while.

Merging the two market segments is now a fait accompli in terms of risk, this in itself should bring in new investors not only trackers but UK institutions who thus far been unable due to mandate restrictions.

The above may create liquidity issues hence IG increasing margin as covering positions becomes challenging.