Member Info for 1pencil

Amazing how these articles appear just when shorts are at their peak..

Background link

https://wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/beauty-features/bansk-group-buy-amika-eva-nyc-1235179198/

New Ingenuity customer

https://www.loveamika.co.uk/

Glyphosate in the media again today, Daily Mail reporting on differences between countries as to acceptance and or restrictions - no consensus despite accumulated research, much disparity still exists between nations which includes the UK and US.

There is also a follow-up article to the one below which suggests EU license renewal might be a foregone conclusion, just a formality.

Either way the trend away from chemical herbicides appears firmly set, its the pace at which change happens that remains.

Shorts back against the wall after strong numbers, big drop to encourage sellers.

HCM is fairly tightly held with a relatively small free float, add to that M & G adding to their long makes for a thin market ..

If there's no bad news they invent it lol, flim flam of the highest order..

I know its a bit dry and well err boring..but these are solid and well established trends, its also what the board at THG base many of their marketing and strategy decisions around.

Scroll down for graph on -

The Growth of Mobile Retailing

https://www.retailresearch.org/mobile-retailing.html

..guess who's turned bullish on Chinese equities..

"Conditions in China appear favourable for a rally into year-end, after its recent lag, said Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs"

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3229940/hong-kong-stocks-post-early-gains-beijing-pledges-private-sector-support-goldman-sees-china-rally

Three different small chains all closing shops in today's Mail, its par for the course so no one pays much attention - question is where are all of those shoppers going.

"Combined ecommerce sales in Western Europe (UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy and Spain) were £152.20bn in 2015. By 2022 they had reached £328.91bn (+116.1% growth)"

https://www.retailresearch.org/online-retail.html

M & G have increased their holding to over 5.05%.

This has been achieved in part by reducing their short position from 4,446,000 to 570,500.

https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllFormList.aspx?sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=04/08/2022&ed=04/08/2023&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=04%2f08%2f2022&sced=04%2f08%2f2023&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&

Beigene also on the up with solid numbers, noticed Hutchmed has overtaken BGNE only 3.91% down b Beigene 9.36% for the year.

This could be the inflection point for Hutchmed as it transforms from R & D (22 yrs) into stand alone commercial business.

"The growth of online retailing was faster in the UK than any other country. The online share of retailing was 6.6% in 2006. In 2013 it was 12.7% and  rose to 19.2% in 2019, cutting the potential sales of many previously-viable retail stores.

During the pandemic online sales were boosted by the fact that many people feared going into stores, while most non-food stores were closed during Lockdowns. By the first quarter of 2021, online sales achieved a sales share of more than 36% every month, although it fell back to around 25% by early 2023 - still 30% higher than the 2019 outcome."

Here's the actual stats for last five years, some distortion due to lock-down but its the underlying change in consumer habits that's makes online a winner imo.

This is a quote from independent Retail Research which collates the figures:

"People have got out of the habit of high-street shopping or even visiting a store. Even by early 2023, customer footfall was 10% lower than in 2019, and in major cities even less. "

Retailing 2023 (to end June)

Total store closures 2,302

Retailing 2022 (12 months)

Total store closures 17,145

Retailing 2021 (full year)

Total store closures 11,459

Retailing 2020  (12 months)

Total store closures 16,045

Outcomes for 2019 (12 months)

Total store closures 16,073

Outcomes for 2018 (12 months)

Total store closures 14,583

Yep, rate hikes will pinch the consumer jostling which items on consumer discretionary take precedence, this imo masks the strong underlying trend moving towards online shopping - not a week passes without some headline of high street closures, be it banks, pubs or shop chains, all rely on each other to generate related footfall.

Lack of acknowledgment within the analyst community is a source of continued puzzlement ..

£16 dough-llars stateside, shorts getting well and truly roasted ...

There exists the possibility of Glyphosate being phased out altogether or restricted further, I can only see this as a positive for human health in general but also helping the emerging bio stimulants market.

Bayer is also coming under pressure but for more complex reasons, recent press release:

"Bayer, which has paid billions for litigation over its glyphosate weedkillers, replaced its previous CEO Werner Baumann early amid demands from some investors that the German industrial giant simplify its diversified structure and split into separate groups."

_____________________________________________________________________

March 9, 2023 - 09:00

This year the EU will decide on the re-approval of glyphosate[1], the active ingredient of the most popular and controversial weed killer around the world. Exposure to the herbicide not only poses a risk to human health and a variety of living organisms but it also threatens biodiversity and the future of agriculture.

https://www.pan-europe.info/press-releases/2023/03/no-obstacles-ban-glyphosate-new-report-shows-alternatives-exist-all-uses#:~:text=Exposure%20to%20the%20herbicide%20not,demanded%20its%20ban%5B2%5D.

Good post davey, further underpinning our assessment of current valuation disconnect.

Might be an attractive asset for potential suitors, small beanz for Takeda after Shire acquisition.

That is some surge in price for e.l.f last 12 months, July 22 trading around $25 closed yesterday at $116.50 with pre-market quote of $136.50

Has to be good for peer valuations (you would think)..

KEY POINTS

Drugstore makeup brand e.l.f Beauty raised its full-year guidance after reporting a a 76% year-over-year increase in sales.

Shares soared in extended trading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/elf-beauty-elf-earnings-q1-2024.html

Yep, not a bad run across the pond, bit of a squeeze me thinks +8% or 250p in Sterling.

Valuation wise SHPL, does anyone have a metric for current value> looks set to be sold presumably to their partner but also begs the question, what are they going to do with all this cash - special dividend ?

----------------------------------------------

We continue to explore divestment and equity capital market opportunities to monetize our investment in SHPL.

Dividends: Our share of SHPL's profits are passed to the HUTCHMED Group through dividend payments. In the first six months of 2023, dividends of $14.6 million (H1-22: $22.7m) were paid from SHPL to the HUTCHMED Group level with aggregate dividends received by HUTCHMED since inception of over $300 million.

Original Timeline is here https://www.thgingenuity.com/resources/case-studies/elemis

Check out the thread (thread view) for additional background on parent Co, L’Occitane.