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That's a refreshing post CS, particularly liked this bit;

"The pipeline has become increasingly complex over the years and it is now difficult for even professional analysts who study the company full time to estimate how the pipeline may convert into revenue / profits. Too many assumptions have to made."

I often sit down to analyse the pipeline but as you say there are just too many variables to make a proper assessment.

The often conservative tone seems to be making way for a more confident outlook.

"Financial: HUTCHMED remains on track to become self-sustaining in 2025"

Elemis Japan has just switched from Shopify to Ingenuity , Singapore also but not sure of date.

Japan https://jp.elemis.com/

Singapore https://sg.elemis.com/

Ingenuity = sticky customers

Perhaps both, small buy back would certainly take up some slack, add those into treasury for dishing out later, plenty of upside for a dividend too - that would really signal to the market Hutchmed has changed.

Good volume in HK !

Agree bots, I think overall its in PHC's favour although there are some extremes where farming just stops.

Related article

French Winemakers Test Different Grape Varieties To Adapt To Climate Change

By Adeline RAYNAL

July 30, 2023

https://www.barrons.com/news/french-winemakers-test-different-grape-varieties-to-adapt-to-climate-change-8d8adb43

Its a very easy share to trade but you have to be ahead the pack.

Resolution 5 from last AGM

To grant a general mandate to the Directors to repurchase shares of the Company.^

..now would be a good time with all that cash, what better use ..

Simply cannot see the value in being short HCM, these hedgies are just gambling now - progress is solid and well supported by existing cash reserves. China is a great opportunity as exemplified by Astra CEO.

Would have been even better without "RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar on average by approximately 7%"

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Revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2023 were $532.9 million compared to $202.0 million in the six months ended June 30, 2022.

· Oncology/Immunology consolidated revenues increased 294% (301% at CER) to $359.2 million (H1‑22: $91.1m) resulting from:

§ ELUNATE® revenues increased 16% (25% at CER) to $42.0 million (H1-22: $36.0m) due to continued market share gain, comprising of manufacturing revenues, promotion and marketing service revenues and royalties;

§ SULANDA® revenues increased 66% (79% at CER) to $22.6 million (H1-22: $13.6m) from our continuing marketing activities, increasing patient access after inclusion on the NRDL in January 2022 and long duration of treatment;

§ ORPATHYS® revenues increased 10% (17% at CER) to $15.1 million (H1-22: $13.8m) after inclusion in the NRDL effective from March 2023 and comprises of manufacturing revenues and royalties;

§ TAZVERIK® revenues were $0.4 million (H1-22: $0.1m) from further sales in the Hainan Pilot Zone;

§ Partnering revenue of $258.7 million was the first half recognized portion of the $400 million upfront payment from Takeda; and

§ Other R&D services income of $20.4 million (H1-22: $12.6m), primarily related to fees from AstraZeneca, Lilly and Takeda for the management of development and regulatory activities.

· Other Ventures consolidated revenues increased 57% (67% at CER) to $173.7 million (H1-22: $110.9m), mainly due to higher sales of prescription drugs. This excludes 11% (19% at CER) growth in non-consolidated revenues at SHPL of $235.3 million (H1-22: $212.4m).

Strong revenues almost across the board, Consolidated Revenues looks very impressive for H1

SHPL continues to perform well, further note on divestment;

· SHPL[43] non-consolidated joint venture revenues increased by 11% (19% at CER) to $235.3 million (H1-22: $212.4m);

· Consolidated net income attributable to HUTCHMED from our Other Ventures increased by 5% (12% at CER) to $37.2 million (H1-22: $35.4m), which was primarily due to the net income contributed from SHPL of $35.1 million (H1-22: $33.6m); and

· We are exploring opportunities to monetize the underlying value of our SHPL joint venture including various divestment and equity capital market alternatives.

What stuck me most from the ownership chart (yesterday) is how little movement there was from US institutions despite two proposed takeovers, completely unphazed by the whole thing, no selling or buying.

The is interesting in a way as it gives some insight into what influences their decision making process, suggests an economic focus rather than just price driven, interest rates and such.

Two of the largest global funds (Blackrock) now have consumer discretionary in 2nd/3rd place for portfolio weightings, perhaps they are looking ahead in taking positions anticipating the consumer cycle bottom..

Sorry blert, missed your earlier post, cheers

Good interview (1.07) from head of Astra on China, I would think this applies equally to Hutchmed and other companies in this space too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/astrazeneca-cfo-denies-geopolitics-impacts-china-business-after-spinoff-rumors.html

Does anyone have an opinion on how climate change with associated higher temperatures will play out for companies like PHC, we know last years heat wave in Europe held back purchase orders but this is balanced somewhat with a move to more sustainable agriculture methods and inputs.

The recent links from various sites is very encouraging but still not unsure overall, mindful of Origin's recent update which showed solid underlying growth but also mentioned volatility in this sector.

I would also be interested if anyone has views on Origin too, both PHC (already have a holding) and Origin are on my short list for further investment.

Not sure we will get a TU as one included with fund raising recently.

Https://fintel.io/sosh/gb/thg

Cheers 2phevs, the 10 million shares available for loan (from your link) looks to be from US holders but is largely unused.

For instance we know US institutions hold collectively 45,769,487 shares, out of that number there is only one short with around 180,000 shares - that position is hedged neutral.

'Institutional Owners 37 total, 36 long only, 1 short only'

My view for sometime has been we only see one side of the FCA disclosures, its a bit like having two accounts one with IG and another with Halifax - with your IG account you have a short position of 0.5% with Halifax a long position of 2%, however you only have to report the 0.5% position to the FCA under disclosure rules.

This is why when shorts seemingly close there is no squeeze, they are netted off against one another usually in auction (but not always).

Qube have a huge portfolio of 2,481 companies which are prominently long, somewhere in the region of 99%.

https://fintel.io/i/qube-research-technologies

We have always known US funds play an important part in supporting THG, but just how big ?

At one point US funds collectively held over 20% of THG's shares subsequently falling (along with the share price) to around 5% for June 23

The following graph represents both these indicators since Dec 20 - June 23, black line is the share price.

https://images.fintel.io/gb-thg-so.png

June seems to have been the bottom in terms of US ownership with early signs of trackers and such increasing positions, we should get a better picture as July filings are submitted along with fund fact sheets.

Please note this info is for US domiciled funds only.

Clearly something happened in June to trigger a change in sentiment, as mentioned in earlier posts the share price started its ascent upwards before the AGM update, automatic inclusion into FTSE indexes is another possibility.

The appearance of two small UK holdings supports the latter but it could be both, US trackers also track UK indexes which maybe another factor.

yespsb/Bwana4, appreciate the feedback

Astra have also dismissed the rumour of spinning out their China division.

"AstraZeneca is the largest drugmaker in China, which accounted for 13% of last year's revenue.

According to an FT report in June, the drugmaker was drafting a plan to spin off its China business, and considering listing a separate unit in Hong Kong.

On Friday's call with journalists, Soriot responded to a question about that report by dismissing it as a "rumour". "We are satisfied with the way we are structured in China today and our focus is delivering those medicines to patients and partnering with local biotech companies in particular."

"Excluding COVID medicines, sales in China grew by 7% at constant exchange rates in the quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth on that basis.

The company upgraded its guidance for China, saying it expected total revenue to grow by a low-to-mid single digit percentage in 2023, up from a low single-digit percentage increase."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-second-quarter-profit-beats-061258501.html

Yup, RM are LLP, although the subsidiary is registered in London, FCA regulation/reporting I would think apply as a UK entity.

Two new funds have appeared with small holdings, around 7m shares between them - difference is they are both UK based.

River and Mercantile Asset Management

Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited

Indeed, that's a nice accreditation to have from ZERYA , all takes time (and money).

"Zerya® is a private quality trademark that belongs to ‘Zerya Producciones sin Residuos S.L.’, and it represents the effort of many years of research dedicated to define fruit & vegetable production systems that can guarantee a residue free (*) final product."

https://www.zerya.org/en/what-is-zerya/

As with shops, pubs and banks, office space on the decline - working from home with associated shopping habits is the future.

Surely analysts in Canary Wharf have an inkling of what is now so evident.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12347901/Yet-blow-Canary-Wharf-credit-ratings-agency-Moodys-plans-number-office-staff-drops-post-pandemic-hybrid-working-HSBC-Barclays-Credit-Suisse-prepare-leave-HQs-scale-down.html

One of Ingenuity's many customers..

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/nestle-beats-first-half-organic-sales-expectations-2023-07-27/#:~:text=The%20Swiss%20company%2C%20which%20makes,a%20company%2Dprovided%20analyst%20consensus.

For reference

We are delighted to announce a major global tech contract with Nestlé Health Science (NHSc).

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_FWhfPpVYH/?hl=en