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Yup, looks to be the case - couple of good posts on a d v f n on this.

PHC is so illiquid that any such automated AT selling knocks it for six.

Good article Yorek, resonates with the Walmart stuff yesterday - automation being a key component of investor frustration and in the same breath, elation ..

Further confirmation that THG is now on the other side, winding down CAPEX as economies of scale and automation come into play.

Deals being done with Chinese pharma companies

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12609655/GSK-agrees-2-5bn-shingles-vaccine-deal-Chinas-Zhifei.html

Indeed Auson, I did have a quick look at the Capital Group fund page to see if there was a prior holding. Clicking on the 'Holdings' tab reveals a lot of investments without a search function, so none the wiser.

'A pioneer in global small-cap investing. Seeks growth of capital by investing in some of the world’s fastest growing and most innovative companies, with market capitalizations of up to $6 billion at the time of purchase.'

https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/investments/fund/smcwx#com-mod-resources-section

This is more of an observation on investment rather than comparing Walmart to THG's operation.

Interview is quite interesting, especially when asked how much of todays fulfilment v how much they want to have this way .. reply 'Walmart is just starting out on that journey', 'major push in the coming years'

I wonder if we will see an acknowledgement from the analyst community looking at all of these burgeoning costs for retailers, 'well hey, you know what THG started way back, almost finished now, CAPEX dropping back'.

Walmart’s betting big on automation to boost productivity and profits

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/06/walmarts-betting-big-on-automation-to-boost-productivity-and-profits.html

Anticipating the next question:

'how come the share price is so low given the increase?'

Tis a fair point, although many investors forget the role of market makers/prop traders when acting for a client. Very few understand market making (try searching Google) or have the kahooners to push a stock way below any sensible valuation.

Softbank recently formed a JV called 'Greenbox' - some parallels perhaps to original idea with Ingenuity, you can get a sense of how the Ingenuity valuation came about.

SoftBank Group and Symbotic Establish New Warehouse-as-a-Service

https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20230724

Warehouse-as-a-Service, could this apply to Ingenuity 'pay-per pick' ?

For the moment its probably most useful for holders to focus on those holdings which are active and moving, namely the US funds.

As mentioned before there is an inherent lag but this is the same data everyone else sees so at least on a level playing field there.

I'll post the change quarter on quarter but also the real time chart to plot the ups and downs.

Quarter on quarter change

Past quarter 88,052,474, new quarter 103,912,303 net gain..15,859,829

https://images.fintel.io/gb-sfor-so.png

Because of the lag we need to manuallly add in the recent TR1 notifications:

The Capital Group Companies, Inc.....29,201,373

Patient Capital Management, LLC......29,968,483

The total number of shares in issue at time of writing 581,891,445

Three amounts above equate to 75,029,685 or 12.9% net gain overall.

Its all about content creation these days, look at how popular cooking programs are on the telly.

Get the odd celeb in there raising brand awareness ..

---------

On another note has anyone been following symbotic, this is a warehouse automation company where Wallmart has bought an 11% holding, the rationale being to automate their own warehouses. Softbank also owns a slice.

For me its another validation tick for THG going in the right direction with investment, yes its expensive short term but THG has never been a short term investment, for most holders.

Maybe Tesco could take a stake in Ingenuity to help spur on their own store automation.

US holdings updated chart - just bobbed up for Sept, first time this year despite lots of bid speculation, feels a tad more sustainable without hype.

https://images.fintel.io/gb-thg-so.png

Aggregate quarter on quarter increase, old 44,252,386 new 48,589,413

On its own small beanz but as mentioned, there is also a notable drop in Crest loan data by some 4% for 2023 to consider, not forgetting flagging inflation and the long (long) awaited outcome of FCA review.

This could work on many levels,

- Economies of scale, THG benefit from better price for their own sites but also Ingenuity customers too, effectively buying shampoo for Boots, Tesco and so on..

- If customers adopt a 'pay per click' model costs can be seen at a granular level, pay as you go, very low overhead.

- This model is already widely used in Europe by all the main supermarkets, Carrefour, Intermarché an so on, its just not well publicised

- Outsourcing at its best, huge benefits for customers with THG being the glue. Existing relationships with all parties while also carrying many of the products, minimal onboarding needed.

There is only one large delivery

It sounds like Tesco are using a 'drop shipping' model, advertise and order via their web site with orders fulfilled directly from vendors own warehouse (Ingenuity).

In practice it could work something like this, using a generic item say No7 shampoo - THG buy 10 bottles of which is then stored in their own warehouse, Boots market place sells one bottle that's picked and sent out, THG gets a mark up, next Tesco market place sells another bottle, same thing happens again.

All the customer sees is their order being processed by which ever market place they were using, shared fulfilment being the key phrase.

Its efficient and cost effective as their is only one large delivery from No7 to THG warehouse, as opposed to multiple deliveries with smaller amounts to Tesco warehouse, Boots and so on..

Underlying data backs up the noticeable change in sentiment, incremental increases by multiple funds suggests a repositioning for recovery, lower rates/inflation.

Russia opened ports for diesel, crude dropping to recent lows.

Yup, sure - noticed couple of small errors in last post, not hugely significant but all the same needed to adjust figures.

Volume is small.

How can it be a red herring (or purple one for that matter) when both are to (proposed) merge, entry into the new index will be automatic in 2024 .

The board have acted correctly by not wasting shareholders money joining an index that wont exist.

Sometimes we as investors can be too close to see the pieces coming together, we have :

> Declining inflation

> Close to or at peak interest rates

>Funds/trackers rotating into consumer discretionary stocks

> 12 month low on Crest loan data underpinning above

> FCA window of finalization upon us

No one is going to wait until inflation is at 2% before pivoting, doesn't work like that - some of these funds will have economic models way out in front, maybe 6/12 months.

Going the right way, don't forget all the caveats when viewing this information

6.36% Sep-23

7.56% Aug-23

8.58% Jul-23

8.64% Jun-23

8.97% May-23

10.13% Apr-23

10.31% Mar-23

10.55% Feb-23

10.52% Jan-23

10.60% Dec-22

9.19% Oct-22

7.49% Sep-22

7.47% Aug-22

6.98% Jul-22

6.42% Jun-22

6.80% May-22

6.76% Apr-22

6.94% Mar-22

7.61% Feb-22

8.39% Jan-22

Positive outlook from Tesco today on inflation, certainly looking better:

"Food inflation fell across the half and while external pressures remain, we expect that it will continue to do so in the second half of the year. We are in a strong position to keep investing for customers, and will continue to lower prices wherever we can - doing everything in our power to make sure customers can have a fantastic, affordable Christmas by shopping at Tesco.""

That chart doesn't include the two recent notifications which soaks up another 10%

Patient Capital Management, LLC

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SFOR/holdings-in-company-2iiwkq3vjtbvatk.html

The Capital Group Companies, Inc.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SFOR/holdings-in-company-i6ae110wzdtn836.html