Member Info for 1eyedman

It has crossed my mind that those holding SO4 on the ASX will justifiably be a bit nipped if this goes under without them having the chance to sell. At least we have been able to do so on AIM. As things stand it’s starting to look if I might have to re-examine my (at the time flippant) statement that I might consider buying at a market cap of 10million (sterling),
Is it any way possible that a rights issue could happen above the current AIM sp? Who knows?. I won’t be betting large on it though!. Administration followed by low ball takeover to pay off some of the creditors and nothing for share holders is looming large in my mind now.

@DonJules
I admire your positivity and do you know what?. I genuinely hope you make some decent money from your throw of the dice. Your comments about the strength of the potash market are not in dispute.
My personal (and hopefully incorrect) view is that funding is going to be extremely painful if it is forthcoming. There was very limited PI interest in the last round of funding, indeed the underwriters spent a long time off loading the shares they had to buy due too the lack of PI participation. And this was all long before the plant problems/production issues were in the mix. I guess it is possible that there might be buyers if the issue price is cheap enough but this of course is massive dilution for current holders. Interesting times or a bit of a mess depending on whether you are glass half full or half empty I guess. GL

I'm still quite curious about how much of the known problems have been admitted to. The flotation cells look like an important part of the extraction/separation process and clearly they aren't working properly. It seems almost implausible that the plant has not produced anything after all this time, I'm still wondering (as I posted before) whether product has been made with a load of impurities present and accordingly with low assay. Also the mention of a write off of inventory (feedstock) as having 'nil' value so not much chance of a chemistry solution likely here it would seem. Its still all about the funding I guess. As expected production has now moved until next March there are obviously some very serious problems here. A bit of a mess I'm afraid.

Carefully worded as always. Have to note it says pending finalisation of announcement as opposed to finalisation of funding. Maybe I’m trying to over think such a simple RNS!

WelshFalcon: Once more time marches on wrt the third suspension and no further news on production. Perhaps your should do another 'which way will it fall' post. Heap of good news about production with funding on only moderate punitive terms (right!) or further suspension seem possible options. I guess Friday is the day to watch out for in reality.
Always enjoy your posts calling out any obvious over-optimism (to put it politely) and sticking to the know facts.

Makes you wonder if any lenders won’t cough up until the plant produces some tonnage. I mean why would you?. Probably be suspended until Christmas (sarcasm for anyone jumpy) if that is the case. If you look at all three of the SOP sales specs for the different grades the only impurity of real interest is the chloride content and frankly the limit on that is not hugely demanding even for the highest grade. However I’m wondering that if they are producing at all they are way over the specification limit. Pure speculation obviously but some proper update on this would seem pretty important.

Maybe somewhere in between. New highly overpaid CEO, high dilution but a few crumbs left for current holders.
I’m still just as bothered that there is no communication of pass spec material being produced or a structured plan to achieve this if they are struggling with the process

Maybe any potential lender(s) want to see some product out of plant before committing. That way they would at least be lending against an income stream instead of forward projections that currently look a bit pie in the sky considering the deadlines missed and the huge cash burn.

So a request from the CEO to delay the lifting of suspension on ASX until 30th August.

Final probably highly sensible selling before the news drops Monday?. I wonder if the bad news will be sweetened by the plant miraculously and coincidentally spitting out some sop over the weekend?. What a cynic!.

Good spot, thank you for the link. Sounds as if the increase in SOP is likely to continue. Pity we aren’t currently producing any from the expensive looking plant :)

Quantumstar, I commend your decision to cut your loses and sell its never easy but does at least salvage something. I can't help but note that although we have the bad news about funding and reduced production what we don't have is news that a single gram of finished product has yet been produced. This surely can't be good as any production at all would surely be flagged up by the company to indicate that the project has some viability albeit with reduced prospects.
As an aside the presentation by Australian Potash was interesting but I can't help thinking that SO4 could have made a very similar presentation near the beginning of the project. I think the detail that may help them to better success is the greater time that their brine will spend 'in the sun' prior to being needed. The contingency fund mentioned is actually pretty small in reality.

Yuri.F I agree with both your recent posts. With respect to the lower grade inventories I’m wondering if, in the instance this is about lower salt levels leading to difficulties with precipitation that there might be technical solutions to this in the longer term. However this will cost time and money so the ramp up pretty much has to go with the easier option of using the higher grade feed material.
The board certainly has no credibility and lenders can be pretty ruthless when their money is at stake. I’m still thinking the only reason they won’t pull the plug is to try to recover some of their debt. There is a limit to how much good money you throw after bad at the end of the day though. Someone could get a great deal if this falls into administration and the plant can be ran without the debt burden. This is AIM so expect something pretty painful. IMHO

Well as the intellectual G. Bush succinctly said during the prime lending crisis as the economy tanked ‘this sucker could go under’
Where on earth could you pitch a share issue?. With the current MC it wouldn’t raise a great deal anyway. Surely the funding has to take the form of a (probably unaffordable) punitive loan or loan to be repaid in stages with discounted shares with the sp dropping at each issue?. We will find out soon enough, perhaps I might buy a few (more) if the mc drops to 10m. I buy a lottery ticket after all.
Generally Good humour on this board considering though. It’s only money after all!.

Brilliant last paragraph WelshFalcon, just about sums things up. The RNS states that details of funding will be released by 16th August which I feel will not make pleasant reading. Unless I misunderstand ASX listing remains closed until that occurs.

Pretty dreadful update with the tiniest glimmer that at least the plant can produce some product. However the company is not viable until production is ramped up which frankly with this companies record may never happen. No announcement on funding yet and the dilution will be brutal when it comes. I wonder if this will end in so called death spiral funding on incredibly brutal terms. Hard to see anything else in my opinion.

I also agree with Lootgaloots comments particularly the comments wrt messages on Twitter, highly misleading. I'm wondering if in a short while the odd head may roll. Whilst this might seem unlikely due to members of the board having fairly decent shareholdings the influence from this will be completely dwarfed by the influence of a possible lender. If the project is seriously behind and the business at risk its not outside the bounds of possibility that someone near the top of the tree will be held accountable. Its also possible someone towards the top in engineering and maybe technical will be swept away. This might not happen immediately but even if funding is forthcoming I cant see any lender being too forgiving of the mess the company finds itself in. There's one heck of a lot of money committed to this.

Just my view which is not worth much as buying into all this shows I’m a poor investor on AIM. But yes I can see sub 10p easily enough. The current main lenders did not release the remaining loan until PI had been tapped. I can’t seem them having any enthusiasm for this other than (as I previously alluded to) they could lose the lot if the company goes under. At that point it would be worth whatever you can get in administration and that would go to the debtors, you can count on the shareholders getting nothing.
Still we aren’t quite in that position yet, let’s see what bedraggled rabbit might be pulled out of the well worn hat!

I wonder if ‘substantial downgrade’ might even mean no production until towards the end of the time period stated as there is a major plant flaw that needs addressing, hence the spectre of a fund raise being mentioned. Guess we will find out soon enough, the suspension is obviously to give time to try to find some sucker to underwrite funding. The only glimmer of hope is the old saying that if you I’ve the bank 1000 pounds you have a problem. If you owe them 100million the bank has a problem. And boy do SO4 owe.

Lootgaloot. Agreed. Zero credibility and it’s hard to see the so called ‘sophisticated investors’ wanting more exposure to this unless they are virtually giving the shares away. Hard to see where the appetite is going to be in fact.

May I just say though in all of this Milton.8rice your research via forums has shown to be pretty much spot on. Good on yer, I hope it saved you some money!