Member Info for 1eyedman

This is going to be very ugly. My fault and responsibility for my own stupidity. What a company.

I too have learnt much about AIM over many years and have 2 golden rules.

Rule one: Don’t but AIM listed stocks
Rule two: Refer to rule one

Yet here I am once more hoping a speculative gamble might pay off and make some money. I have to confess to getting a little nervous at the delay and it has to be said conflicting timescales given out by the CEO on Twitter over time. I’m even more concerned that at one point I thought that if in the seemingly (at that time) unlikely event the shares hit 15p I ought to sell up or buy more. So called averaging down on AIM is yet another mugs game in my humble opinion yet here I am thinking about it!.

Like the ramp and the way you are thinking Chesh!. On planet earth my completely uninformed wild guess is more on the 10-20% range on production. Hopefully followed by more as the cash rolls in. I’d be more than happy to be wrong and for you to be spot on :)

Nice to see a stop in the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ recent slide. Let’s hope for an improvement, one or two decent buys coming in. I don’t think I have the courage for a top up myself, particularly as the FTSE 100 is disappearing down the toilet today taking my ‘real’ shares with it!.

Pondering
Agree with pretty much all of that, particularly SO4 being on the last rung. For me the company has some value as it has a nearly working plant and proven resource.

To be fair QuantumStar SO4 does not have the best track record of sticking to timelines or budget and the last couple of sudden fund raises have damaged credibility a bit. Best case scenario is here has been a slight snowball affect with people losing faith in greater numbers due to the ever slipping production timeline. Worst case for me is that some investors have wind of a more significant problem and delay in commissioning. Hopefully not the latter but I’ve known some pretty dodgy stuff on AIM which has so called ‘light touch regulation’. Your guess is easily as good as mine, I’m holding on for now but would never recommend any course of action to anyone else.

Significantly higher volume of sells which I find a bit concerning TBH

The predicted timing of first product is certainly far more obscure than the CEO's rather gung-ho tweets of 'product imminent' or similar. The penny it seems has finally dropped that plant commissioning can be a pretty painful process. If I tried to draw any positives at all from this RNS it would be that there appear to be no major plant failures or design faults. Or at least none that are currently being admitted to. Its a fools errand to pick at the wording I guess but the fact that 'expected in the weeks ahead' is used as opposed to 'in the days ahead might suggest that this will be more than a couple of weeks. Its a pity that the company communications could not be a bit more factual such as 'we are at step y of an x stage process and this is how the intermediate product is shaping up'. Not a great confidence builder but I'm relatively unsurprised. Its pretty difficult to train guys on a plant that did not exist before, massive learning curve for all concerned. Better communication would be the best we could hope for. Larger shareholders seem pretty unmoved by all of this, recent falls on very thin volumes which are probably PI's making the decision to bail as a quick profit is not forthcoming. Not criticizing that last point at all just an observation.

Well its certainly looking like the June production date will be missed so revenues will be pushed back accordingly. Whilst I guess on some level its good that the CEO posts progress on Twitter I was wondering if leaving the impression that you could hit the start button and product would shortly follow might be either wildly optimistic or could even show a lack of experience of chemical plant commissioning. The first few batches might be a slow and painful process with a lot of real world snags that have to be ironed out. There will probably be in-process lab testing (and indeed final product QC testing) that eats up time and its possible the early material may fail to meet specification. The one saving grace to all this is that we know the start material is there and its a matter of getting the plant to work. Unlike waiting for an oil drilling /precious metal mining outcome where the product does not actually exist in any useful quantity.

It all depends on Tony’s definition of final wrinkles. I would hope for within a couple of weeks, often the final stages are the most important in terms of optimising the purity and composition (particle size etc) of the finished product. I could be wrong but logic tells me that the first market notification will picked up on asx first, due to geography and time zone and an early morning rns for us. But could be completely wrong!

QuantumStar . I've found that the problem with AIM investing is that there is sometimes a curved ball thrown into the mix that you just did not see coming and it is often detrimental to the share price, sometimes in a big way. I personally would not like to hazard even a wild guess at EOY SP. I am invested (after time out after the previous placing) so obviously I am hopeful that product equals profit equals greatly improved balance sheet equals stable and solvent company moving forward on further sales and happy shareholders. Or we could get buried under a pile of debt and lose everything.
Sorry that is no answer to your question but I feel it would be unwise and unfair on AIM to put a guess on the board, this was simply a courtesy post so your question did not disappear into a black hole. Its nice to see a bit of blue I have to say. GL!

It will be nothing to panic about if there are the odd few hiccoughs in end stage plant commissioning, almost goes with the territory really as long as there is not a major delay. Personally I hope initial revenue is used to pay down debt as opposed to setting up further lakes. Two reasons. One the terms of the current load agreements are pretty punitive, 9 percent interest in part I believe. Starting to clear this from the balance sheet might enable us to get new loans at a far more competitive rate once revenue is flowing. Secondly the company will need someone to buy anything produced from further lakes so further off take agreements would be useful prior to further investment

I agree with pretty much all of this Miagi365. I sold after the last placing simply on the basis that my feeling was there would be another raise prior to product being sold. It looks as if the lenders wanted some more money in the pot from investors so they were not carrying all the risk. If there had been an offering to private investors there may have been a couple of problems. The last offer was really poorly supported by PI and the offer would have been underwritten which in itself means a hefty fee to the underwriter so some of the raise has disappeared before you start. Also the underwriters would have possibly looked to offload any shares they are stuck with as underwriters which is pretty much what happened last time. I think this is now not all bad news as hopefully there is now enough money in the pot to get product to market from lake one. Ongoing risk to my mind now is if the price of product is not high enough to start making some decent cash or if the company then gets adventurous to get more lakes producing and need another raise. You would think the present creditors might want some of the debt paid before further lending though.

Somewhat concerning and certainly does not inspire confidence. Obviously they are not expecting a sp increase any time soon. I do hope this is not a prelude to a discounted placing. Sounds highly unlikely but this is AIM after all!

Well Mick a mildly blue day instead of red is a start I guess. Nothing wrong with Reliant Robin anyway
Still the regular 100k sells though which is a bit of a spoiler

An honest statement rather than an admission. You can't win them all, all of the time. I tend to use money from more mainstream share profits to fund my exciting but often not immediately (or sometimes ever!) successful AIM adventures. I don't even get the FTSE 100 large caps right all of the time so AIM is a gamble for me.
I still quite like Shanta as its producing and making money, some political risk in the mix which we have accepted by buying in.
Hope your other 4 come in and you do well. GL

Some decent buys going through (or at least trades that seem to be buys) . I wonder if they will be mopped up via a hopefully final sell or bunch of sells from our 100k guy .

Agree, let’s hope it happens. I’m not holding my breath I’m that one but who knows?.

Although 0.1 p dividend is a bit smaller than I hoped for I’m taking more as a statement of intent and an indication that the management intend to deliver on there promises or more accurately their aspirations. With the accompanying decent set of results I’m pretty happy with the progress although an improvement in share price would be pretty welcome ,seems something of a slow burner but could be pretty rewarding in the end barring any unforeseen problems. Fingers crossed for some decent drill results.

Indeed. My cynicism always has me look for some wriggle room in the wording. Good experience with shg so far for me. Still stung by my last investment ‘fully funded to project completion’ until a large fund fundraising, dilution etc. At the moment though from what information we have the main risks to shg would be a dramatic drop in price of gold or problems with local government Or a safely issue.. Then of course there are the ‘unknown Unknown’s’ :)