The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Another useful link-thank you. Nice to see the last raise confidently referred to as 'final', although it risks something of a credibility issue should this not prove to be the case.
@Faicj -Welcome and GL I hope you make lots of money :).
Potash was a good bet for me and the value of potash increased when fertilisers became short. There was just one tiny tiny problem which was the plant to process the extraction did not work as designed. The big lenders had first call on the considerable infrastructure that has been built (after several placings etc.) so I guess it was a no brainer to them to turn off the financial taps and let the company fail. I have to agree that Australian CEO's seem to have more than their fair share of bad luck shall we say :).
At least here we have products already for sale and we just have to hope for further sales and successful use of the products. I should have learnt some time ago from my experience with gold miners, the only ones who have earnt me a bit of profit are ones that were already producing before I bought in (as opposed to being a hopeful hole in the ground). Mind you I mustn't get too enthusiastic or Ill end up buying some more CREO when I get some 'spare' cash.
Troajan
Yes it’s odd. Mind you when it was clear that my last AIM investment was going to go under quite a few obvious rampers appeared which pretty disappointing. Another one I had and sold was a miner endlessly waiting for a licence, I did not post on that board but sometimes check in and the same people are there years later still waiting for the licence. Very civilised around here though!.
Gl yourself
“A very busy board” :). It’s quality that counts.
Appreciate the links though.
Agreed, positive forward looking RNS. For balance though the elephant in the room is the yearly loss. This will need to turn round pretty fast to avoid further dilution. No deal breakers though which is a good start!.
GL
Interesting and informative RNS. It may not have much immediate effect on SP as the studies look pretty long term which I guess is to be expected. It would be excellent if the device proves to be effective for issues not currently eligible for surgery (from RNS). From a human perspective I mean in this instance. What a useful tech this could turn out to be.
'A surprise either way would have a dramatic impact on the sp.'
Also totally agree with this. I feel it is a positive to have the product already and the race to profit depends on driving sales and training. Things can go very wrong or right depending on whether milestones are met. The company still has a fairly decent market cap though, the real worry comes when a company is worth buttons but still needs to raise. Which CREO clearly doesn't unless they splash cash on a an acquisition.
@ Theorist. Well had I put my shirt on SO4 I would be half naked now which is not a good thought!. I actually thought they might get potash process over the line but in keeping with many AIM stocks ran out of money and the well of share issues had run dry. Still that is history and I’m back in the fun zone.. Would not have bought in to CREO if the story did not make some sense. I tend to use these boards occasionally but not as an investment aid. If you have seen my SO4 posts hopefully it’s pretty clear that although I like to be positive (otherwise why buy the share) I don’t have blind faith when the writing is on the wall that a company is falling over. Hopefully not something we will experience in this case :).
I decided to burden this share with a small investment after becoming interested on the back of a MF article. Buying after a successful placing seemed as good a time as any in the hope there wont be another one for a while!. This seems like another race to profit before running out of money (sorry to state the obvious!) but I do like a gamble.
Good luck to us!
Edward75. I hope we get the positive outcome you describe and you make valid points about how close the company has got to production. I fear the race against funding is looking lost but obviously there are a range of possible outcomes. GL also.
I’m much more comfortable with reasoned positivity than the ludicrous multi bagger tosh that was around prior to suspension.
I cant see the latest RNS as anything else other than an indication that the company is a further step closer to administration. Even the wording seems pretty pessimistic. At least the suspension on AIM will save anyone getting sucked into the fantasy world that this is a short term multi-bagger.
I'm actually wondering if the lenders that appear to 'own' the infrastructure should the worst happen, might still get a little singed. This kit would only be useful to anyone who wants to attempt to produce SOP from the lakes. It would be interesting to see where this ended up if SO4 falls over. One possibility is another operator over paying the current lender for the plant etc. on the basis that they (Tauris) will helpfully lend the new owner some cash. Purely on the basis of course that any new operator is in a position to soak their shareholders for a placing to help the funding. Bit cynical maybe?.
It has crossed my mind that those holding SO4 on the ASX will justifiably be a bit nipped if this goes under without them having the chance to sell. At least we have been able to do so on AIM. As things stand it’s starting to look if I might have to re-examine my (at the time flippant) statement that I might consider buying at a market cap of 10million (sterling),
Is it any way possible that a rights issue could happen above the current AIM sp? Who knows?. I won’t be betting large on it though!. Administration followed by low ball takeover to pay off some of the creditors and nothing for share holders is looming large in my mind now.
@DonJules
I admire your positivity and do you know what?. I genuinely hope you make some decent money from your throw of the dice. Your comments about the strength of the potash market are not in dispute.
My personal (and hopefully incorrect) view is that funding is going to be extremely painful if it is forthcoming. There was very limited PI interest in the last round of funding, indeed the underwriters spent a long time off loading the shares they had to buy due too the lack of PI participation. And this was all long before the plant problems/production issues were in the mix. I guess it is possible that there might be buyers if the issue price is cheap enough but this of course is massive dilution for current holders. Interesting times or a bit of a mess depending on whether you are glass half full or half empty I guess. GL
I'm still quite curious about how much of the known problems have been admitted to. The flotation cells look like an important part of the extraction/separation process and clearly they aren't working properly. It seems almost implausible that the plant has not produced anything after all this time, I'm still wondering (as I posted before) whether product has been made with a load of impurities present and accordingly with low assay. Also the mention of a write off of inventory (feedstock) as having 'nil' value so not much chance of a chemistry solution likely here it would seem. Its still all about the funding I guess. As expected production has now moved until next March there are obviously some very serious problems here. A bit of a mess I'm afraid.
Carefully worded as always. Have to note it says pending finalisation of announcement as opposed to finalisation of funding. Maybe I’m trying to over think such a simple RNS!
WelshFalcon: Once more time marches on wrt the third suspension and no further news on production. Perhaps your should do another 'which way will it fall' post. Heap of good news about production with funding on only moderate punitive terms (right!) or further suspension seem possible options. I guess Friday is the day to watch out for in reality.
Always enjoy your posts calling out any obvious over-optimism (to put it politely) and sticking to the know facts.
Makes you wonder if any lenders won’t cough up until the plant produces some tonnage. I mean why would you?. Probably be suspended until Christmas (sarcasm for anyone jumpy) if that is the case. If you look at all three of the SOP sales specs for the different grades the only impurity of real interest is the chloride content and frankly the limit on that is not hugely demanding even for the highest grade. However I’m wondering that if they are producing at all they are way over the specification limit. Pure speculation obviously but some proper update on this would seem pretty important.
Maybe somewhere in between. New highly overpaid CEO, high dilution but a few crumbs left for current holders.
I’m still just as bothered that there is no communication of pass spec material being produced or a structured plan to achieve this if they are struggling with the process
Maybe any potential lender(s) want to see some product out of plant before committing. That way they would at least be lending against an income stream instead of forward projections that currently look a bit pie in the sky considering the deadlines missed and the huge cash burn.
So a request from the CEO to delay the lifting of suspension on ASX until 30th August.