Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
but mostly thanks to Myles for posting ...
"There are a few new faces since I last posted here, so I thought I’d re-share my research on Avacta, for those who haven’t seen it.
Original investment thesis, 01/03/2020:
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf
Update note on the Company’s work on COVID-19 testing, 15/04/2020:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/avacta-group-update.pdf
Frankly, I am astounded by the current share price. There seems to have been some concern about the placing shares hitting the market tomorrow – but there’s been no sell off since the GM results earlier so I think my suggestion on p.13 of my second note, about who the placees were, was correct. Any institutions who wanted to take some profits would likely have done so already, either by selling down their existing holdings (to then reload with the shares being issued tomorrow), or by selling their to-be-issued shares on extended settlement.
Whatever the case, it is largely irrelevant. The TVR is now 208m, and I can’t see that changing for the foreseeable. The Company has circa £11m net cash now, which is more than enough for global diagnostics players to be willing to collaborate.
The CEO could not have been clearer – there will be additional partnerships announced over the coming weeks. There will also be pre-orders of test in the millions by bodies such as PHE. I would also be surprised if there was not grant funding for Avacta, either from the UK gov of from a major charity such as the Gates Foundation.
If you read my research (esp. the bullet points on p.13 of my second note), all of these announcements should not come as a surprise, when they do come out. The wider market is however – in general – not well researched, and so will get excited and pile in when these announcements do steadily come one. The obvious move is, simply position in size before they do, and don’t be surprised WHEN they do.
I hold 2m shares at ~21p average, and don’t intend to sell any at all until we hit ~500p / ~£1bn mkt cap. My longer-term target is several billion pounds. The detailed rationale for this valuation is all in the first note. I am particularly excited by the TMAC platform, as I think it has the potential to generate drugs that will themselves generate tens of $billions in sales, each year.
Retrospectively, the main flaw of my research is underestimating just how many lateral flow tests that use Affimer-based reagents (Cytiva’s and those of other yet-to-be-named partners) could be sold globally. I estimated 1-3 billion per annum. Given the recent noise coming out of the US, I think it could be several multiples of my estimate."
Thanks to Turvart, who added...
"I admire your research and the effort that you put into it. Have a look at another 2 areas.
1: cell imaging by the fluorescent detection using Affimers to improve image quality.
2: Using Affimer technology to replace cell electroporation.."
Thanks to Myles, who added...
"The main concern now is that, with its work on the COVID-19 stage hitting the global stage (which, by the way, I think will become the most talked about, used, and ultimately, most valuable, COVID-19 related product until a vaccine is successfully developed), Avacta will get taken out by a tier 1 pharma within 12 months. Again, see p.21-23 of my first note for how Big Pharma is actively seeking antibody mimetic platforms such as Avacta’s Affimer technology."
Thanks Myles... who kindly wrote...
"Morning all, hope everyone is well.
There are a few new faces since I last posted here, so I thought I’d re-share my research on Avacta, for those who haven’t seen it.
Original investment thesis, 01/03/2020:
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf
Update note on the Company’s work on COVID-19 testing, 15/04/2020:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/avacta-group-update.pdf
Frankly, I am astounded by the current share price. There seems to have been some concern about the placing shares hitting the market tomorrow – but there’s been no sell off since the GM results earlier so I think my suggestion on p.13 of my second note, about who the placees were, was correct. Any institutions who wanted to take some profits would likely have done so already, either by selling down their existing holdings (to then reload with the shares being issued tomorrow), or by selling their to-be-issued shares on extended settlement.
Whatever the case, it is largely irrelevant. The TVR is now 208m, and I can’t see that changing for the foreseeable. The Company has circa £11m net cash now, which is more than enough for global diagnostics players to be willing to collaborate.
The CEO could not have been clearer – there will be additional partnerships announced over the coming weeks. There will also be pre-orders of test in the millions by bodies such as PHE. I would also be surprised if there was not grant funding for Avacta, either from the UK gov of from a major charity such as the Gates Foundation.
If you read my research (esp. the bullet points on p.13 of my second note), all of these announcements should not come as a surprise, when they do come out. The wider market is however – in general – not well researched, and so will get excited and pile in when these announcements do steadily come one. The obvious move is, simply position in size before they do, and don’t be surprised WHEN they do.
I hold 2m shares at ~21p average, and don’t intend to sell any at all until we hit ~500p / ~£1bn mkt cap. My longer-term target is several billion pounds. The detailed rationale for this valuation is all in the first note. I am particularly excited by the TMAC platform, as I think it has the potential to generate drugs that will themselves generate tens of $billions in sales, each year.
Retrospectively, the main flaw of my research is underestimating just how many lateral flow tests that use Affimer-based reagents (Cytiva’s and those of other yet-to-be-named partners) could be sold globally. I estimated 1-3 billion per annum. Given the recent noise coming out of the US, I think it could be several multiples of my estimate."
you and the good professor are assuming a test does not pick up asymptomatic infections ... which we are told the AVCT test will.
read the RNS from the 8th ... " Importantly the test will indicate if a person has the virus now, whether they are showing symptoms or not, and will do so in minutes, in-situ with no need for laboratory equipment."
"whether they are showing symptoms or not"
"will do so in minutes"
"in-situ"
"with no need for laboratory equipment"
well ok, fair enough BD ... but if you are holding anyway I would expect you over the moon and buying a shed load more having just found out that the company has just saved 4 - 6x its mcap in long term decom liabilities compered to what you thought. hence my 'better' being an understatement comment. GL
GabrielOak... no offence caused and the intention of my post was not meant to highlight that TXP has done well vs TRIN despite your trolling ... it was meant to question your snooty comment about hating 'these boards' when I remember you using these boards to troll a share that you were not invested in in order to promote an 'alternative' that you were ... in fact you hate 'these boards' so much you did the same on ADV FN at the time if I also remember rightly. So, no offence but I'll not be giving your posting much time of day. GL.
No really fair BlueDefender ... it's bull$hit being posted that is frowned upon.
Like making assumptions that decom liability is $400 - $600m more than it actually is... and then spreading that as info.
yawn ... what's with the focus on a 30m share placing done pre off the scale short term transformational news when 6x that number of shares have been traded in the last 11 sessions since anyway (only 9 sessions since the 2nd and largest one was proposed) ? ... we have traded over 11m already today alone and its only 10:30am.
Since the placing we have news that we are on track to use our Affimer tech to deliver a global holy grail Covid-19 POC 10 min antigen strip test developed with a US milti-billion $ pharma... truly potentially a global holy grail product beyond comprehension ... and today we have confirmation that we are "well ahead of schedule" ... and have already "successfully generated multiple Affimer reagents that bind the SARS-COV-2 viral antigen"
So ffs, get a grip and stop fessin' about a done deal placing announced weeks ago just because you hope it will help you get in lower.
give over, a 'certain individual' had no point to make beyond constantly bleating thus 'will' got to 40s.... 'will' go to 20s etc. Anyone who gives than agenda driven guff the time of day needs a word.
Lot of fuss about a 30m share placing to let mates in cheap pre news that was immediately priced in and 170m have been traded in 11 sessions since.
I think we have lost a lot of bed wetters and snide traders in recent weeks... the former unresearched and out to watch everything from sidelines, the latter hoping for lows to trade again so having no impact on SP, just snaking around the forums. May well mean a higher proportion of researched folks with an investment view longer than a few months are currently holding RRE than previously.
lots of "definitely" and "sure thing" talk JAdam ... I'm surprised you have the time to post of forums like this as chilling on your luxury private island estate must be time better spent.