Member Info for 100notout

If I was Hainan I wouldn't offer anything to Kodal now. The two most important things have changed substantially since Hainan funded Bougouni, that's the spod price crashing and the Government now have a 35% share which they paid $4.3m. How will Kodal fund stage 2? Hainan can afford to wait it out unless the spod price trebles in the next two years or that Kodal manages to sell the gold projects as there is no way Kodal will be able to fund stage 2. I can now see why the share price is at these levels and the only hope is in a Hainan offer but it's highly likely that it won't be higher than the initial 0.5 buy in price. There is too much risk at the current price for the potential reward. The main benefactor here is the Malian government having a 35% of a mine for literally nothing and will they come up with 35%of the stage 2 development costs? Kodal shouldn't have spent a penny in Mali until they had agreed the terms. Hainan and the Malian government have Kod over a barrel and Bernard and his team have been outplayed unfortunately.

I think holder's here are being delusional if they really think that Hainan will offer 1.5p+ unless the spod price goes through the roof, which I can't see happening. The Malian government have completely taken the proverbial expecting $15m due to the Hainan transaction yet picking up 35% of the Bougouni project for a measly $4.3m. What's the betting they won't be putting up 35% of the cost for stage 2. Hainan must be fuming and if they offered anything over 0.7 I will be taking it.

Personally I think it stinks and it seems obvious why the resource update has been delayed. $4,3m honestly...

It makes me wonder when the money came in from Hainan and the share price went down from 0.7 was because an associate or insider of the Malian government shorted the hell out of the company knowing that they would delay the transfer of the mining licence. I suppose we should have expected tactics such as these from a military dictatorship and one that has a relationship with Wagner. My patience is warring thin, it's all very well building a mine but it's about as much use as a chocolate teapot without the licence being transferred. Like I have mentioned before they shouldn't have invested a penny until the licence was transferred. I wonder what Hainan make of the situation after all they stumped up the cash in the first place, they must be fuming. No doubt the next thing we know is that we will be on the 2025 mining code...

Unfortunately it looks like it's going down to the 20's after the last update. The current mkt cap is a bit rich for current sales. A great company producing amazing wine but the funding of the new winery is going to be tricky without further dilution.

I'm sure Gem will find a really large 500ct+ stone and this will be the catalyst that gets the share price properly moving up. Most probably a hedge has been placed betting that the company will totally fail but the 13 large stones found this year has scuppered this prospect. The quantity of large finds couldn't have come at a better time with regards to paying the debt taken on to facilitate the mining activities. Next year the company could be sitting on cash equivalent to the current mkt cap if it continues to find a similar amount of large finds.

I think there are a lot of positives but every time good news comes out there is someone ready to suppress the share price most probably for chart technical reasons. It doesn't make sense for sustainable to keep the price down unless they have a short that is larger than their holding. I just find it strange that Clifford hasn't commenced a share buyback and also the lack of director buying. The increase in the average price raising above $1600 is a real positive, perhaps they are finding more coloured stones but what ever is driving this it is great news.

No the reason it's cheap is that a hedge fund is shorting it and way higher than the 0.5%. It's about time the FCA looked into this.

Somebody is desperately trying to suppress the price. I wonder why.

This has to go up soon, the achieved price has gone from $1424 to $1603. The company is profitable, virtually debt free with a nav of $1.49 and yet the share price is 13p. This can't be kept at these levels for long as the share price is a joke and surely Clifford must feel more confident of a share buy back after this last update.

If the share price doubled it would still be cheap that's why I have been banging on about a share buyback. I'm wandering if Clifford has plans to keep some of the cash from these large finds for taking another mine over but perhaps if it's in Lesotho the Government will have to give better terms as Gem aren't running a charity. If Gem isn't buying back in the next few months I will assume this is the case. The current mkt cap is ridiculous and I'm surprised brokers haven't put a buy rating and 30p plus target on.

A really large stone would really help here and I believe it's possible. Keep the faith.

Who really cares if it drops to 45 when there is a high chance of getting an offer north of 150 in the next few months. Even the biggest shorters realise this hence the reductions, in fact for wace to go to 0.56% from 1.02% says it all. Nothing has changed with the SOTP valuation so there should be very little downside at the current price. The large shorters have done their job in reducing the price for a takeover. It happens all the time, the biggest clue is when you have a lot of naysayers on the boards. Just a bit of patience is needed for a large reward.

Wace short reduced to 0.56% from 1.02% the day before and qube down to 0.81% from 0.96%. Somebody must be supplying the shares in order to be able to buyback this amount, however at all time lows they must be loss making. It will be interesting to see who comes up for an offer first, it's bound to happen as a predators won't find a better time. This share has been totally manipulated, is it MM or a predator who is behind it...

MM has shown his true colours. He obviously has little respect for the 35% as he would have done a rights issue rather than a placing. He stated that Apollo valued Ing higher than the current mkt cap but the BOD/s aka MM has placed very little value on Ing. He complained about hedge funds and the mechanics of the city but it has clearly worked in his favour, sell high and buy back cheap. No doubt Ing will be listed in a few years in the US at multiples of todays mkt cap.

It's not too late for PE to make a bid, I just hope though if they do that they make it public to scupper MM's plans. I would expect some of his 65% to break ranks for a 150p plus offer.

Hainan will want more than 38%, they will make an offer for Kod's interest. The site will be completed in a matter of a few months, the licence along with clarification of the mining code will be a matter of perhaps weeks.

I would say it's most likely to be a hedge fund buying back as in all reality there is little downside but large upside as an offer of 175p plus could easily materialise considering MW has inadvertently put up the for sale sign. There is a strong chance that one of the previous interested parties will be back.

Can't not can.

They must be wandering what to do with all that cash from the 2000ct stone. They were in merger talks before with Gem so surely they must be thinking that now will be a good time to strike. I reckon 30p could do it, they must realise that Sustainable would be willing. I can see Gem having a mkt cap for less than £15m for long especially if they find some more large stones.

The offer is a bit stingy to say the least. My average is 8 so at least I will make something but not much, probably the least I have made on a company being taken over.

Yes the RNS does indicate the 2023 code. It's the first time this has been mentioned by KOD or perhaps I have missed something in the last few years as I was expecting Kod to be on the 2019 code. Not great news but I'm sure the market will appreciate it when they get the licence issue sorted out as it has dragged on for far too long. I don't think Mali are doing the best job of promoting mining in their country.

Only a few months away from production and no licence transfer, nobody can say for sure which mining code Kod will be on and we haven't got an off take agreement for stage 2. The company has done very little work on the gold projects when the metal has been flying. Bernard hasn't let us down to date and I hope he can pull this off because Hainan and the Malian government will be looking after their own interests. From Kod's perspective it would have been prudent to perhaps have waited until clarification of the mining code, licence transfer and an off take agreement until spending a penny in Mali.

I think that the recent fall was partially due to the margin requirements on THG by IG. Considering 99% of the positions are long perhaps many had to sell to balance their positions. No doubt a hedge funds put them up to it to benefit their organised attack. I wouldn't be surprised if they also disclose stops etc so they know where to push it down to. One thing I agree with MM is that the system is bent. I do have respect for him for calling the city out as most CEO's just take it and are too scared to upset the system.

I hope MM gets his revenge and gets the share price up to Pell Hunts top estimates.