Yellow Cake Share Price (YCA)

So I've been short term bearish for last few months as price action has been so horrible. Who cares about all the analysis as makes no difference in the short term. I remain a long term bull and still believe above $100 is a reasonable target.

The last few days have been interesting for YCA. US uranium assets continued to get whacked and the spot price indicator on YCA page continued to dribble lower, and yet YCA seems to have caught a bit of bid. It seems the downside momentum has run its course for short term. In addition I have been watching the discount spread between YCA and SPUT , which has narrowed to 2%. I have some slightly ropey data back to May 24 (kindly provided by someone on here), but the spread has broadly traded 1-13.5% since early 2023. The spread is usually narrowest on these big pull backs i.e. SPUT has a higher beta.

I have not added to my position, but I have sold half of it and bought SPUT which I think is a mildly bullish trade and relatively defensive in that I dont expect the discount to go negative.

I am aware this trade also has a component of going long GBPCAD which is trading at 5 year highs. However if the CAD strengthen it will be on the back of reduced trade war noise which is probably good for risk assets generally.

“ What people overlook in s&d forecasts:

they assume: 1) Kap can’t ramp up, 2) overfeeding happening big, 3) Japanese inventory sales are over, 4) physical funds able to buy a lot 5) some have restocking despite ok inventory levels 6) overlook use of loans of material”

Definitely worth reading their analysis and its free.

Https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/11/uranium-week-capitulation-near-the-bottom/

Petra Capital believes retail investors have "capitulated" on uranium stocks, with the spot price down -40% from the high of US$107/lb in February 2024. General pessimism has not migrated onto the long-term uranium price, which has risen by 8% over the same period

Apparently mining costs are ~50% higher than 2019 so the price at which 90% of mine are profitable nearer the $100 more frequently discussed. Seems odd for a very diligent analysis to take such an old number with no further thought.

Must read analysis for those invested or looking at the uranium space - about the supply outlook…

They take a contrarian stance here.

https://substack.com/@asymmetricresearch