Cavendish : 68p target price - 66% upside29 Apr 2024 10:04
Cavendish's latest research from earlier this month hasn't been posted here yet in detail.
They have a 68p target price, and they forecast 5.5p EPS this year rising to 6.9p EPS and then 7.9p EPS.
Here's some extracts:
"Strong organic growth; focus on EBITDA
Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x.
Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and online sales up +40%. Our extended forecasts anticipate increased investment, developing new products and expanding distribution channels to drive future revenue growth, with a focus on EBITDA and cash generation. We believe Venture Life has delivered strong organic performance in 2023 and anticipate on-going growth which could be complemented by re-starting the M&A strategy."
"Cash – The company generated cash from operations of £9.8m (FY22: £6.2m), indicating cash conversion of 85%. FCF for debt servicing was £4.8m, up strongly versus £2.8m in FY22. Strong cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to deleverage, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.3x (FY22: 1.65x), which has subsequently fallen to 1.15x."
"Outlook – We note Venture Life’s stated commitment to improving EBITDA margins, that, while lowered in the near-term, are expected to benefit from marketing investment. This reflects a focus on profit and cash generation across all revenue streams, generally regardless of the differing gross margins. We expect this focus to support profit and cash growth for the business.
Investment thesis – Venture Life has delivered an organic 2023, demonstrating its ability to grow revenues and generate cash, allowing the company to de-leverage. We believe the company exited 2023 in excellent shape, noting a diverse product portfolio with further organic growth opportunities, available manufacturing capacity for expansion into new opportunities and a stronger balance sheet to re-engage its M&A strategy."
They also "expect the company to re-initiate its acquisition strategy during 2024 and beyond", and "as of the end of FY24E, based upon our forecasts of the current business, Venture Life would have £16m of the initial £30m RCF available, plus the potential to draw a further £20m".
Under different scenarios this could add between a further £2.5m-£7.5m of EBITDA to current forecasts.