Seplat Energy Share Price (SEPL)

My $700m in Free Cash Flow up to 2023-05-24 from 2021-01-01 certainly is conservative (as stated), and I consider everything above that as a cherry on top. :) Bless

"I get $1.7b already in the lockbox since Jan2021"

That's closer to the number I have, those saying $800m I think are quoting the "capital access" research firm who it looks like didn't account for depreciation, amortization and impairment; they had mpnu doing $387m in free cashflow on $4.5 billion in revenue in 2022 which makes no sense whatsoever.

Some excellent posts on here as ever. Thanks for them.

Drawing together some of those details, at $80 bbl with $17 opex on 64k bbl, and presuming a 50/50 share for the last 12 months with Mobil, I get $1.7b already in the lockbox since Jan2021

Thanks Alex, excellent commentary.

Looking at all the evidence, this points to a quite amazing deal in SEPL favour, especially going forward, say 18 months.

Forgot to add:

When I talked to Seplat management they told me that MPNU's opex/boe is $17. Somewhat higher than the onshore fields, but instead you have zero (0) oil-theft and the royalties are lower in shallow water.

When ANOH comes online the expect opex/boe go down for the group, as it's essentially new incremental wells feed straight into the plants. Highly efficient, high margin.