Pan African Resources Share Price (PAF)

Hi again Gavster & thanks for replying

The $42.5m is in their statutory accounts & the costs as shown in statutory accounts differ from AISC because of the way the costs are presented to conform with IFRS requirements. Normally they won’t differ dramatically but can do e.g. If a company puts through some exceptional write off or gain in their statutory accounts.

For PAF in H1 the revenue of $194m in the statutory accounts is the 98k oz @ $1960 per oz

The statutory costs are Costs of Production of $121m plus Other/Royalty of $10m. These total appx $1330 per oz v their stated AISC of $1328 (usually IMO they don’t align quite so closely!). There are net finance costs (which now should be reducing rapidly) of $5m resulting in a pretax profit of $59.5m. Tax is approx. $17m – in line with the SA corporate tax rate – and hence statutory net profit is $42.5m

As for the current half year, one thing that surprises me a little is that they continue to guide AISC in excess of $1300. I say this because (a) in a presentation earlier this year they indicated progress in their underground operations should improve AISC and (b) they have stated that they have cut high-cost production. Therefore, I am hopeful that AISC may actually come in at or below $1300. We’ll see soon enough.

On a separate Off Topic, over at BGLF I agree with your post of 5th June. I think Damofarl's reply is a bit off track in making reference to a mix of NAV numbers and Market SP numbers. I’ll follow up over there – But not until after the weekend as we make the most of the weather!!

ATB

Hi jjhbev

Good point, and yes, I think you're right.

Looking back at the trading statement from Feb RNS's.

H1 : Gold produced and sold 98458 at price of $1961 = revenue of $193m, so if profit was $42.4m shows costs of ((193m-42.4m) / 98458) = $1529 against their quoted AISC of $1287. Not sure what the taxes are, or whether the dividend was seen as a cost of 18.3m, which would still make cost per ounce of $1347, so looks like it must be after tax (15% ?).

Either way, we're heading for a bumper H2, Profits of $100m or more IMO, so a 40% payout means surely means at least 2 cents, which I think was my guestimate dividend already.

Bought here in Jan at 15.8 , been trading on and off since 2015, been a very good share for me. This time I can see it climbing into the 40’s so hanging on rather than take the profit.

Good morning Gavster,

A question on your numbers for the year. For Q3 & Q4 are your numbers pre tax? (my reading of your post is that they are, whereas the $42.5m for the first half is after tax).

Assuming your figures are pre-tax then the after tax figure for H2 may be in the range of say $55m as compared with the $42.5m for H1. To me, this seems realistic as the results for H2 do "benefit" from the uplift in the gold price (particularly Q4) but production for H2 will be some 8 thousand oz less than H1.

A net profit for the year around $95-$100m could IMO give rise to a div in the range of 2p (pre the impact of the wretched SA witholding tax).

Apologies if I have misinterpreted anything.

ATB

This is probably one of the best stocks to be in right now, a rerate to. 40s, high dividends, plus Mintals coming online…