International Distributions Services Share Price (IDS)

Mr Thistle,

Your Link is to the National Security Register (NRR) and it doesn't really concern M&A activity. If you read the Intro it says this:

These are not the only risks facing the UK. The NRR focuses on ‘acute’

risks, which are discrete events requiring an emergency response. In

addition, the UK faces a range of serious ‘chronic’ risks, which are

long-term challenges that gradually erode our economy, community,

way of life, and/or national security.

I think it is arguable that the takeover of an Iconic National Infrastructure Asset like the Royal Mail merits a review under all 4 of the 'chronic' risks listed above, details of which are not included in the NRR document that you linked.

The intro also goes on to refer to the 'Integrated Review Refresh' released in 2023 which sets out the the Govt's new process for identifying and assessing these 'chronic' risks - subtitled: 'Responding to a more contested and volatile world'. A reasonable argument to suggest that any decision reached in 2022 may not still hold when revisited in similar circumstances in 2024.

For a footnote here's why I think that the Bid poses 'chronic' risk:

1. Erode our economy - the transfer of ownership into foreign hands could be seen as doing this. Loss of FTSE listing, Profits due to foreign entity etc

2. Community - here I feel strongly, I know my Postie, he's been coming for years, and the one before that. I trust him, as do many people, and he is part of our community. Unlike the countless delivery drivers who work for all of the other delivery companies, none of whom we ever see twice. I fear that this would change if the Royal mail becomes just another commercial delivery business - they would inevitably screw their employees on pay and benefits to drive down costs and eventually the staff turnover would result in just more strangers coming to the door.

3. Way of life - pretty much the same argument as above. But also the universal service obligation - which surely any bidder will promise to do the right thing but we all know Corporate Promises are entirely worthless. Admittedly the USO will change whatever happens but I don't like to think that a bidder will get the inevitable uplift in value when that happens when it does.

4. National security - well, I get my passport, driving licence, HMRC letters, local Govt corresspondance amongst other things delivered by the Royal mail. They also have a pretty detailed dataset of the name and address of every single individual in the country and who is sending them stuff. I could go on...

Analysts have said the government's earlier decision does not prejudice a fresh review – or a fresh outcome. "We see only political downside in clearing a takeover, especially in an election year.Given this obstacle, we struggle to envisage a successful deal, even at the price level improved to secure a board recommendation.”

If this deal doesn't get green lighted by the end of this month, it'll collapse. No politician is going to want to defend selling off RM in the weeks running up to an election.

It took the government 2 months for permission to increase the buying of shares over 25%. It will take longer for government approval on a full blown sale, regardless of what "experts" on here think.

IMHO the Tories will either kick it into the long grass for Labour to deal with before calling a GE. Or the deal will fail because calling a GE will stop any oversight due to the rules of purdah in a pre election period!

Ironically both scenarios strengthen the hand of the board, who I'm sure are lobbying behind the scenes for Ofcom to agree to halving the delivery time for 2nd class mail and the slowing of delivery of business mail. All which can been implemented fairly swiftly and definitely before the disruption of a GE in the autumn.

Think it is a HOLD and wait and see to be honest.

Hmmm.......

Apparently I'm hiding behind the guise of insults but I seem to have knocked the bounce out of your bungie old spud?

Do you want to offer a comeback to simple facts and logic or are you just going to shimmy away?

Britian's business minister Kemi Badenoch is set to meet the chief executive of Royal Mail's owner IDS to discuss the takeover offer from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky.

"[Badenoch] is meeting the chief executive officer of Royal Mail’s parent company to discuss this and other matters,” a spokesperson for Rishi Sunak explained.

Reports this morning revealed the UK government had not planned to intervene in the sale.

However, the government may be able to block the deal under the National Security and Investment Act, which a Whitehall representative said was being monitored “very closely