BHP Group Share Price (BHP)

Nobody has considered the combined value of the two companies

Solomonkane, in answer to d)

I've no doubt the M&A team at BHP will have run the rule over all possible candidates. They'll understand the regulatory and local risk involved in the assets and the likely price of a successful bid. AAL has well publicised problems outside of the core copper and iron assets of interest to BHP, and I'd guess BHP sees those issues around AAL as providing an opportunity. Once in play there are a number of possible outcomes. I doubt BHP ever expected their initial bid to be successful, but rather it is part of a larger strategy.

I'm a long term holder in BHP (decades), trading when the opportunity presents but always maintaining a stake. I don't like the short term impacts on the BHP SP of these bid approaches but it is part of the game.

The FT has an excellent article on the merits of buy or build - worth a look if you can get access (subscription)- titled, The ‘build or buy’ copper maths that could guide BHP’s bid for Anglo.

a few thoughts.

a) bhp has not won hearts and minds on this at all- most of its institutions cannot see the merits / logic of this pick and mix approach - bhp has not done its home work on the merits of this at all.

b) why on earth does bhp want debeers? diamonds have had it -they are now being manufactured cheaply- the whole industry is in a slow death

c) reputational risk - bhp has an outstanding track record of investment returns. anglo does not, is cash poor, has some major capex to do, will dilute bhp earnings. bhp is taking a significant risk with its reputation. this is not like bhp/ oz minerals.

d) bhp wants copper assets, we have been informed - ok so why not anto***asta, first quantum minerals etc

e) other than modest corporate hq overlap, where are the synergies with this deal?

f) anglo am board are not going to approve without getting an over the top offer, which bhp if it has any sense is not going to offer- so who is pulling whose plonker here?

message to bhp; its not too late, withdraw honourably, deal was never there anyway, and it will be forgotten about in a few months. bhp does not need anglo am myriad of problems

It’s dropping because people in the know BHP will be paying over the odds while stockmarket indices are trading at roppy levels.

In US, everyone was under impression interest rates coujd be cut by May, that isn’t happening, maybe not in 2024 at all. That is a red flag, there’s gossip that FEDS could be looking at raising rates to bring down inflation as it has started to rise this yr.

Factors for BHP sp direction is not all about BHP, it’s the wider picture out in this big nasty world we’re now living..

Gla

I’m getting lots of alerts of investment institutions disclosing their holdings in BHP. Are they loading up,on BHP? Or am I getting it the wrong way round.