Braemar Shipping Share Price (BMS)

Having read that the Baltic Exchanges' main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose again on Friday marking a 7.7% rise in May, I also note this new article on the BBC:

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqee78djzmro

"Shops rush for Christmas stock as shipping costs surge"

"Container prices, which peaked in January and briefly declined, have rebounded sharply in recent weeks"

"Mr Glynn explained that the spot rate - the current price for immediate delivery of goods - has dramatically increased in recent weeks from $4,500 to $7,500 (£3,500 to £5,900).

"This makes a massive impact on big bulky items, especially those that have low margins such as furniture, barbecues, and kitchen appliances," he said."

"Disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthi movement have limited the global supply of shipping space and containers."

"Shipping costs have soared as a result. The average cost of shipping a 40ft container now exceeds $4,000, a 140% increase from 2023, according to freight market tracker Xeneta.

Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, said that importers have learned many lessons from the pandemic including that "the most straightforward way to protect supply chains is to ship as many of your goods as you can as quickly as possible".

"That is what we are seeing with some businesses telling us they are already shipping cargo for the Christmas period - in May," he said."

Edison have just released an update note after the prelims.

They've increased their target price to 535p (from 500p), i.e 85% upside from the current 288.5p.

They forecast 42.8p EPS this year, rising to 46.9p EPS next year. That's a P/E of 6.7 at 288.5p, falling to 6.1.

There's also a 14p dividend, rising to 16p - a 4.8% yield. Net cash at £2.9m at Feb'25 is then forecast to rise to £8.3m:

Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/diversification-underpins-resilience/33659/

Conclusion:

"Valuation: Lifted from 500p/share to 535p

Braemar enters FY25 with an orderbook that is up 47% y-o-y to $82.6m and strong fundamentals, with tanker rates remaining robust and depressed dry cargo rates set to recover. Furthermore, the global fleet continues to grow, while at the same time the existing fleet continues to age, implying pent up renewal demand that will need to be addressed within the foreseeable future. Our forecasts are largely unchanged but we have rolled over the base year for our dividend discount model (DDM) valuation, which leads to an increase from 500p to 535p/share."

Vs mkt capt im a buyer as i see 3.25 very soon with new container rates BUT ONLY A TRADE

Braemar CEO, James Gundy, CFO, Grant Foley and COO, Tris Simmonds present the group’s results for the year ended 29 February 2024, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here: https://www.piworld.co.uk/company-videos/braemar-bms-full-year-2024-results-presentation-may-2024/

Or listen to the podcast here: https://piworld.podbean.com/e/braemar-bms-full-year-2024-results-presentation-may-2024/

We have a 200000 sell sitting there so imo will take a fair crack to get thru .