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yep, pity i bought back in . Not impressed.
profits warning...and scrabbling for cash with sale of good asset??
As mentioned on another BB I have sold out here owing to unforseen problems elsewhere. As I put a relation of mine into Zam I intend to act as if those shares belonged to me. I shall not in the near future be rebuying Zam. I felt it best to be up front as I do not like talking about stocks I do not own or have an interest in. I did advise selling out at 14 ish but they took a different view. I hope it turns out well.
I'm out this has no legs another duff pick! Better opportunities elsewhere not than I can pick'em! Good luck all.
Of course for chart watchers there is little to entice one...the 3/6/9 month /1-3/ year graph look pretty dismal and I would have to say this looks proportionate given the last nos. I have already reduced and intend to exit shortly as the vibes are just too negative for me short term. It's a losing position but c'est la vie so will be keeping an open mind whether to rebuy down the line. Some stocks just never get a break and the recovery is just way too long for the average pis seeking a turn however small. Zam was a poor selection on my part however bullish I was at the time it has not worked out and I have dallied way too long here. Best to the few posters who still hold in hope...Remember how ever good the nos are....don't mean diddly!...Old lags know this.
What else are they gonna say?...I'd rather the market take a positive view which they ain't done since I bunged a few bucks in here!
Zambeef retains a positive outlook towards the regions in which it operates and has set its sights on continuing to grow #ProudlyZambian Positive twitter message just out from company
Tullow Oil has begun.exploring for oil and gas in Zambia, after European laboratories found good traces of crude in soil samples. No oil is produced in Zambia and they are seeking to diversify away from copper which accounts for 70% of its exports. A Tullow spokesman said "if there is oil in Zambia we will find it"....
Make you right jolly. Atm investors here are not compensated for the risks via a reasonable div return. Having (x) thousands tied up in a non producing non appreciating asset ain't much of a prospect when you factor in the geo and currency factors. Most of us are only too well aware of this and when you add the market rarely give suckers an even break the delights of investing in Zam casts a spell over ones enthusiasm. At 12.25 any decent upside looks forlorn and I have reduced putting this down to another one of my misguided long term holds. As ever events guide my trades as opposed to small lot sells forcing my hand. Trumpton and NK do not help and stocks at daily highs make me even more nervous. I fully intend to be out of all stocks by Oct 1 accepting my useless blood thing which is on its sare so hardly counts..
country (just look at Tanzania & shg) and management suggest need for serious/severe discount here imv
Zimbabwe has filed a court application to enforce previous notices to seize more than half of platinum producer Zimplats mining land. This is an attempt by Mugabe's Govt to compulsory acquire 27948 hectares of its mining land.... (Reuters 2/8/17)..
Good post rev. Luckily my holding here is my least in terms of cash invested so am prepared to accept a higher risk quotient, namely the political number. That being so 60 looks way off for the foreseeable and I would be more than happy for 30 and even that looks doubtful short term....(next year). Your analysis is well reasoned but backing African Govt's to do the right thing?....I don't know. As ever like many o....lies the geo political stuff holds back the intrinsic value of many businesses and that is a terrible situation for an investor to battle against however good the underlying business may be. I am holding with an eye to folding as after 3 or so years I'm losing money here albeit only a penny or so. My other blood thing is a disaster the only ray of sunshine is my leisure stock which I have held since the early 80's and has shown me healthy gains. We know a stock can be moribund for years and then out of the blue it takes off....Zam could well be this type of stock so i'm hoping to see a big re-rate before my 5 year stretch is up! Current mrk cap makes little sense on the known knowns but then again it ain't written this will change for the better. I think it's healthy to be sceptical about stocks and their values after all its your financial wealth at stake but if you don't take risks you may as well buy Gilts. If I apportion % values to my tiny portfolio it would be (100+) (0/0) and (-70). If it wasn't for the 100+ I'd be down Carey st.
My analysis of this one is as follows:- Treading water until political situation in Zambia stabilises one way or the other. If it heads strongly towards dictatorship there will be no future here but looks more likely that the current incumbent is being given enough rope to sort things out and Zambia will be looked back on as a model for how to take on wannabe dictators in Africa. I sense management continuity planning with alternate management options becoming available. The share option scheme seems to support a situation where the founders leave in a few years with a nice tidy profit but they have to get the share price back to where it was historically. I don't see any real reason why they cannot do this other than politics. The legacy price was based on expansion through africa and they seem to have been continuing that route and now have an investor on board strongly backing that with pots of cash. If I am right, the share price will be back up at 60p or so within a couple of years based on strong revenues from traditional verticals and new businesses of chicken and palm oil. And I keep saying there is Zimbabwe post Mugabe on the doorstep - rush to sell from the guys who were 'gifted' farms by Mugabe and new regime desperate to get the country going. Development fund would be right there with any necessary cash when needed. Africa risky - yes! Excellent management, excellent business model, agricultural risk spread over many lines, retail risk (losing Shoprite franchise) being mitigated by developing own chains. Vertical integration largely deals with typical Africa issues giving them in-house control of converting sun&water to value added consumer retail products. DYOR and this will look even better than the numbers suggest.
Sporadic selling takes the sp lower with no sign of buyers who are looking at 10..ish as an entry/re- point. I cannot see an imperative reason to buy atm. Whatever the fundamentals/prospects may be those will always be trumped by short-termisim. The idea of holding on to a stock longer than a month is anathema to 90% of pis imo. Any holding in Zam and the like needs 'bottom drawing' for a min of 3-5 years. On that basis I have c 2.5 years left to realise a gain. Will it happen? Absolutely no idea. Cashing out now at a small loss would be hopelessly unproductive not only in losing money but having £6k tied up in 'lost opportunity cost' which annoys me intensely. I must consider that I made a bad decision to invest here..... for now anyways. How this pans out and where the bottom of the stock is, will decide for me.
Latest on Acacia Mining the Tanz Govt now say they owe $190BN!! Blimey the GDP of the country ain't worth a 1/3 of that. The shares fell another 48 today. Don't know about you but I'm getting twitchy re companies trading in African countries. I guess Zam is different but we have fallen c 50% in a short space of time. That's telling us something.
I've noticed some big sells going through without any sign they affect the sp. Must be someone on the buy side but no rns as yet? Volumes look wrong. Agree it should be a bargain at these prices but who is buying?
So what are we worth as we stand, 10p/ 15p ?
http://zambianeye.com/zambeef-airtel-money-partner-to-introduce-tap-and-go-service/ I invested here as I saw the fantastic cash inflows compared to the market valuation. Now that cash is coming in electronically which probably reduces local currency/cash handling risks.
Somebody dumped 2.000.000 at 13 so under the reporting level. Now I'm back to showing a loss albeit a small one.
bit of weakness in the US$ wont go a miss. miners still doing O.K will help economy . imho.
gut feel/luck must be a major factor in sucess
http://zambianeye.com/comment-zambeef-not-doing-enough-corporate-social-responsibility-in-chisamba/ There is a worrying message in this story that Zambeef should be providing water facilities to unconnected people living 15km away when the government can't be bothered. With the current politics in Zambia, it is a good idea to keep below the radar and not be seen as having any pots of cash. That is why I agree that some of the account figures may have been less enthusiastically boosted than would be normal for a company looking to show it's best performance.
Sure jolly....but have to wait till end of Sept for the F/Y trading up date. The bod say they see better returns coming in H2 as prices stabilise (not sure about the Kwa/$) so cont to hold on that basis and the increasing export opportunities available. Have no more cash available to add to these puppies else I might. Must admit I don't have a 'feel' for the stock or much knowledge of the sector but that might not be a disadvantage in these chaotic markets? As ever with investing you need a goodly slice of luck and I'm not getting much atm. Is there such a thing as a 'lucky' investor? Common sense says no, but I think some people are inherently lucky, I have met only one who consistently beat the averages and he could hardly add up! He's not in Zam i might add. I guess all an amateur investor can hope for is to have more winners than losers which is pretty hard to do but you only need one to really produce the goods to wipe out any dogs in your portfolio. I'm long enough in the tooth to know that might be a stretch however hope springs......in the share game so FFS give me some!
yep..good and bad...but need more positivity lol
Agree jolly...there were a few smelly nos in the accounts. However the top line showed very good improvement UP $20m which will need to continue baring in mind we have been warned of increased costs in H2.