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Concur rev...but will it all end in crocodile tears?
Maybe the zampalm approach may be a good model to get o Big the supply chains going in Zim? If the �windfall� owners of all those farms could get them run professionally and efficiently with a guaranteed customer that adds value, giving away control but getting 9/10ths of a far more profitable farm would seem a no brainer. Agree would help enormously if Shoprite could get excited for Zim too, Macro outlets could also do well. I would have thought getting a decent crop growing in the fields would help Zim to convince the world that they would soon be contributing rather than squandering international aid
I bloody knew it soon as I outed the stock climbs...Lucky my other one did also....Still have a few in here so that's it for now no more selling Peter to buy Paul!
Asante sana Rufiji...
I have to disagree. The last thing we need is to increase our debt burden to purchase run down agricultural assets with considerable exposure to volatility across commodity markets. Borrowing USD against African.currency income is dangerous as the.history of ZAMBEEF's many significant above the line adjustments has shown while exposure to negative commodity price movements.and.disease is the latest.excuse for the.company's low quality earnings. That having been stated if.Shoprite decide to invest in Zimbabwe I would see an expansion of the in store concessions and.supply contracts for.Hungry Lion as positive. John I agree with your observations and "wote bora" for your new.investment opportunity.
Dancing in the streets gets exhausting and the euphoria of Mugabe's going will be short lived once the people realise their exchanging one corrupt leader for another (his right hand man) who put 'the stick' about! I doubt much will change, fraud & corruption was not limited to Mugabe in fact it's endemic throughout the political class in Zim. Once back to normal the Zanu-PF party will reassert it's grip on Zim and most likely carry on much as before. Perhaps not the revolution Zim deserved.
Out he goes....but not much merriment on the Lusaka stock market today. Still c.20% up ytd not too shabby.
Hopefully the exec team can see the clearance opportunity to buy Zimbabwean farms. If Chinese money will help us to do that then seniority management should be reaching out for investment, this is is a once in a generation opportunity to strategically position themselves as the largest agricultural company in Africa.
Was it not Churchill who said ...."democracy is the worst sort of Govt, except for all the others".... The Chinese who call the tune in many African countries argue their form of socialism over the mother of parliaments democracy. Their ideal of a one party state- led capitalism and tight idealogical control to enforce citizens loyalty is being adopted as a preferred route to the West's path to freedom and prosperity. Will Zim fall under China's spell as the UK & US power over African affairs ebbs away? Some African states are entrenched in democratic values let's hope Zim does not adopt a quasi form of China's socialist caplitalistic values. Mnangagwa who stood side by side the crazed Mugabe for many years. As China's preferred new man in charge you got to wonder he might be played by Beijing.
Small tick up in Zam shares coincidental to Zim shenanigans? Perhaps one more dysfunctional state returning to democracy soothes nerves of adjacent countries. Will the million or so Zimbabweans now return with Mugabe consigned to history?
Mugabe given till 10.00am today to resign or he faces impeachment. Should have been on his bike by now.
How is the coup against Mugabe being seen in Zambia? I'm not even sure the countries are close in non geo, politics & trading. Zambia is obviously more stable but could there be repercussions or could Zambia see this as an opportunity if the new Govt conduct elections to play a part in the countries agri reconstruction via Zambeef?
Just to clarify 'I sold' refers to partner acting on my advice.
I sold 30k @12 earlier as an opportunity in another stock I have been keen on.... came my way. Still holding a decent amount in Zam. Kwaheri Rufiji.
John, thanks. I take your observation as a compliment. I take my moniker from the Rufiji river in Southern Tanzania where the Konigsberg was sunk in the First World War. I have worked in Tanzania and Northern Mozambique and a friend is a friend indeed. I agree totlly with you on Grogan but he does see himself as the local "Big Swinging Dick" when it comes to corporate actions.
Cheers Rufiji...your moniker sounds very similar to Rafiki in Swahili meaning friend! Think CDC might well play a role via Zam if the economic mess can be sorted. As you say rev China the 'elephant' in the room. Grogan has enough on his plate atm not to get distracted by Zims mess!
John, Zimbabwe is a complete economic mess, but if the new government ( whatever form that takes; the Head of the Army has flown to China !?) seeks rapprochment with the West there is plenty of money waiting to come back in. They seem to have been reduced to using BItcoin. However, let's wait and see. I only hope Grogan doesn't let his ego get ahead of him.and feel he has to do some sort of high profile deal. Hopefully CDC are a calming influence. By the bye the 90% figure is a bit misleading; it means people not employed in the formal sector so excludes domestic workers, casual workers, self employed, informal traders etc. THe figure for Zambia would be around 80%.
Before Mugabe Zimbabwe was the food basket of Africa. To turn the country around someone will have to get the farms to be efficient again. Largely depends on the game the Chinese are playing. The CDC would probably love to be called in to sort out the agricultural sector but more likely if genuine elections held rather than ZANU continuing in power.
Do we do any business with Zimbabwe? I very much doubt it. Apparently they use 9 differing currencies! With 90% of the pop unemployed, hyperinflation a Govt of unknown sympathies, who would dare enter into any trade deals with them? Looks set to continue the basket case of Africa.
Seems that investors had factored in these back at the update. Bit of a curates egg really. The increase in debt from $48m to $64m will be reduced by c.$18m from Zampalm monies in Feb and cattle feed costs will be less due to reduction in prices and the farms have possibilities. Further expansion on the retail /cold storage side will be a driver though Shoprite concessions are facing competition. The new man from CDC looks a good appointment and prospects are just about good enough to keep me interested for another year even if events outside their control deteriorate. Re-assess at the H/Y.
It would have been reassuring to get some positive guidance for the current.financial year, but there was just a wish list of improving margins and reducing operational costs. The dire performance of the ZMW since the close of the 2017 ( down 20%)could indicate significant forex losses may also be in the offing. If they could get profit up to $10 million that would trigger a re-rating but there always seem some random negative factor
No real justification for the price drop - only someone taking advantage of the lower price to top up. Expect we should see improvement as Zimbabwe gets its act together
Some areas of operational concern in the results. Inflation in Zambia is around 6% 8% but revenue only increased 2.5%. If there significant additional outlets then like for like sales must be under pressure. Lowly rated and potential for a significant rerating but they do need to improve operation performance. Would have preferred Grogan ro,have stepped down
Much as expected....c'ept the Mugabe stuff. Total equity of c. £276m or c.0.90pps which was a big jump over 2016 by c. $80m due to a revision of property, plant & equipment values. No time to fully digest but bofp calcs the EV is c.27p up from 25 (2016).
I initially got into this share when I realised its huge growth potential combined with huge cash income compared to valuation. You can still buy this share for just a month and half of cash over ther tills. Also, if they sell the non-core farms currently on the market at the asking price, someone is being daft as they could have bought the entire company for the same figure. Just the local politics holding this back.....