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After hours again
Someone is 100% building a stake been like this for days and days nown
Just this: while everything is going very well at present, the company would be vulnerable to any slowdown in trading, given the present MC.
They are not - they are valued by the market and at present the markets very happy with the company's results and as I said I suspect that an II or HNWI is taking a stake as we have now had 5 days of large after market transactions posted accounting for over 300k shares. Will need to get to about 500k for a TR1 though
@lucian, doesn't bother me at all, cash position after return of collateral of £82m. EBITDA for 2023 of £42m, the company is now profitable with good margins - expected 6-8% for 2024.
What are you reasons for asking?
There is pretty much zero chance of a takeover as CEO owns 53% and has his sights on a mountain Ch bigger business - 5% market share is the stated aim, up from 1.4% now.
Lucain - Ipc will no doubt reply himself.
But, since when are companies valued on their accounting assets? Eps for 2023 was 199p (adj) and 182p (diluted). Yu is still on a PER of less than 10. Most in the sector are on around 15 times, including TEP (adj basis). Brokers have noted the Opus takeover by Drax at 10 times EBITDA. Yu group EBITDA for 2023 was 42.6m. 10 times is 426m, plus cash of £60m (ie the 80m less accrued ROC payments), so say a rounded up £500m. Equates to just under £30 per share, oddly enough is also 15 times PER! Current price action here is all pointing to a significant re-rate towards a 'normal' market valuation. Though as the IC article shows, the market still perceives some risk from historic issues. At some point the SP will consolidate, but where ... ... ... ??????
Extract
"Part of the reason there is less competition in the SME space, however – and why some suppliers are actively abandoning it – is because it is risky. The likelihood of customers paying their bills is dependent on the economic backdrop, and balance sheets are laden with money earned but not yet received. Yu Group’s accrued income, net of provisions made for bad debt, jumped by 64 per cent to £52.3mn in 2023.
An accounting scandal in 2018, relating to a massive miscalculation of Yu Group’s accrued income, also casts a long shadow."
Conclusion
"Small utility players are clearly risky. In the case of Yu Group, it's also important to remember that the market rarely reacts well when darling stocks unexpectedly disappoint. However, their compelling customer propositions should not be ignored, and it will be fascinating to see how they fare as the energy market finds its new normal."
The article does not give a recommendation, it is reporting only. No mention is made on valuation or even the low PER! The writer of the article offers nothing new and has simply read the broker notes, and quotes from them. The other stock covered is TEP, and likewise bad debt, which has doubled at TEP, is highlighted as an increasing risk. IC - "As with Yu Group, there are also concerns that unusual market conditions have artificially boosted growth."
Market cap here now over 300 million. Net assets as in last RNS, around 50 million (mainly cash).
Probably more by now, but it still puts a high value on hope and expectation.
Does that worry you at all?
Now £18.20 to sell. Ripe for a takeover?
It's the spot price of gold/oz - it's nudging the ATH again and could push on this time.
Good luck with your investments.
Typical! The Waitrose that always has copies has none today!
However, 'Nil Desprandum' as the wife is going to try another Waitrose on Saturday for me. . .
Everything I am invested in is going up!
AT. Result are due in May. It looks like the SP has started its rise towards results day. In November they announced are ahead of expectations. YU. and AT. are my best investments ever.
I am not familiar with POG, what is that?
1802 to sell.
Thanks again for supplying your estimates, ipc.
I also suspect that one or more II have now delved into this more thoroughly and seen similar traits.
My money is on Shell and PM as GW has always been fairly open about his support for YU. Maybe even AN other...
That dividend f/c plus special along with targeted 37% sp growth would do it and the action last night @ 1750p made me think TR1's may not be that far off.
'Top alongside 7 of 3800 companies globally' could even bring in a US interested parties now IMHO.
As ever, luck and good fortunes to all invested here.
(wonder what has happened to 'usual caveats' nowadays ;¬)
If Q1 is continuing in the same way as Q4 2023, my estimates for 2024 are circa £700-£720m T/O, EBITDA £50-£52, PAT £38-40m, cash on hand £114-£120m. EPS 240-245 and a divdend of circa 80p. If they then remove the share premium account they will be able to distribute (or share buyback) of at least a further £12m or another 80p/share as a special dividend.
I personally am looking at the £1bn mark going in 2025 at which point EPS is north of 3.30 with PAT north of £50m.
What this means for the share price is anyones guess but if it is on a PE of 10 we are looking £24-£25 this year and £33+ next year. All of this can change quickly if as I suspect is happening an II or HNWI is buying heavily. ( My guess is about 300k shares have gone on worked orders in the last 5 or so trading days)
Anyway good luck all DYOR
Np, have a good one.
Apologies, I hadn't seen the original post
I'm just responding to the original poster who, like me holds YU and precious metals.
I suppose I'd call it mutual interest and courtesy.
What's the relevance to YU?
Morning,
I notice POG has eased through $2200 again. I wonder if this is the moment it will push on. All the factors are in place...
Also how close will they get to £1b rev ?
Our PE is just short of 10 that isn’t the PE of a high growth company, 20+ at least
Depends on your timeframes 30-40 isn’t unreasonable in the next 12-18 months
This is the year YU can explode Q1 already off the a flyer so when we get a TU hopefully in May I want to see the words significantly ahead of expectations as the broker targets yet again are pretty low IMHO
If that’s the case can see another couple of broker upgrades through the year
Will they hit 100,000 meter points ? If so boom time
Can have 1K max @ 1815p atm on IG and they have 100% long score on their platform.
Wow - busted straight through £18.
Sparky - what do you see as good value here? £30-40 per share?