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Companies house is so useful
So smartest bought dual energy for ?21m
Dual energy had a turnover of 87m in 2019.
And had 9m in cash
Can?t find how many customers though
Yu turnover 111m , ?17m in cash and valued at 9m
I can see YU being gobbled up very soon by smartest and a good fit to compliment Dual energy and increase SME
i have just topped up 7k shares - cant see it being a bad move... if it goes further down (or up for that matter) i will continue to buy. long term prospects here looking good as ever.
No idea why anyone is selling at this level. It is essentially handing over shares at half price vs a month ago and very little has changed.
Gov announcement on Thursday regarding social distancing could result in a bounce as they may indicate the timescales in which businesses can go back to trading as normal (ish). A date within the next month would be great news for YU.
may as well sell the company and let the buyer take the cash pile and customers
Three small trades totalling 2990 shares sends the price crashing to 50p. Will it be capitulation soon to single figures?
"I am actually shocked no director buys at this level which isn’t good in my mind especially the new guys."
Probably been furloughed as there is no work for them to do!
Definitely a few desperate to get out even at multi year lows.
Either very shrewd or very desperate.
I am actually shocked no director buys at this level which isn’t good in my mind especially the new guys.
If finished we should start to move back up also nice to see Spain Lockdown is over with non essential business heading back to work.
UK will follow in a couple of weeks with a phased return.
It looks like our mystery seller cleared the decks last week. That said they were not exactly an II given they move a little over £200k. Someone one on here suggested it could have been the ex FD which would tie up with the kind of volume shifted.
LSE message board went off piste again today but this time with bulletin board messages from last year when a fairly large number of people were discussing Target prices of £4, £5 and £6.
That would be lovely :)
But YU are not alone and at least they have the financial health to survive and the key is the relationship with Smartest which was the whole point to stop this hedging risk going forward and give greater financial flexibility.
Having bought into Yu Group over year ago I now hold a large number of shares and I must admit the lockdown is making me twitchy to say the least. My biggest worry is the amount of gas, electric Yu have forward bought at a price pre shutdown. If customers then either do not use it or worse case go bust Yu will have to sell this back to the market at a much reduced price, this will have a much larger impact than just usage alone. IMHO, of course I might be wrong.....
At least Yu are in a lot better shape now, there has been a huge change in the way the company is run and performing. If this happened 12 months ago I think it would be very difficult to weather the storm.
I have everything crossed that they pull through but it will entirely depend on the length of lockdown and speed at which business gets back to normal.
sparky333 keep positive by all means but I suspect that smaller energy suppliers need help from the Government:
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/04/09/energy-suppliers-split-over-asking-government-for-a-bailout/
"A spokesman for Energy UK, which represents dozens of energy suppliers, said: “On behalf of the industry, we will continue to work with the Government on options for how best to support the households and businesses who may be struggling to pay for essential services like their energy bills right now.”
Insiders also questioned if the energy sector would be front of the queue for a potential Government bailout as it is still collecting cash from customers, unlike many companies in the travel and hospitality sectors".
should be 300K per day turnover not per month
So after that rather bland RNS and the slide in the SP I have tried to run some numbers on the impact of COVID 19 based on what we know. Please take with a pinching of salt and add anything you might think useful or disagree with also I have used rounded figures for easy.
So what do we know ?
1. Turnover for 2019 was 110M so lets use that figure
2. Spring will I expect will have less turnover that Sept to Feb anyways but I have just used a standard spread over the year.
3. We know the impact spread is 43% High, 41% medium and 16% low
so lets get into it
110m so 300K per month turnover
lets split that turnover into the Risk graded impact areas and we get
130K - High
120K - Medium
50K - Low
Lets risk grade financial the impact
High - 20%
Medium - 60%
Low - 100%
I have been really hard on high because even when totally shut down you have the standard charge and some usage regardless
so impacted turnover
High 25K
Medium 75k
Low 50K
total 150K so a 50% hit to revenue during Lockdown sounds a lot but we must consider this is low usage period anyway and also how does that fit when annualised.
Lockdown was the 23rd March so 20 days as of today so to date a 3M revenue hit which is 2.9% of the annual.
so lets get nasty now and the lockdown is until the 1st June which is possible , but I personally think a phase opening up will occur in may with low affected area's opened but the big cities locked until June or even later if the spread isn't contained.
so revenue hit if lock down is june that's 70days so 70x 150K = 10M hit to revenue which is 9% hit.
This would again actually be less as March, April , May and June are low energy use months on lights, heating etc.
SO we could be looking at at 10% hit to revenue if complete lockdown went onto JUne - Actually not to bad when 90% of companies in the UK will have no revenue also
YU has 17M in Cash , Can defer VAT, Can loan money form the government , all companies can do this so Bad debts is a threat but can be managed.
Thoughts great appreciated on my very simple maths which is IMHO the worse case as we all know turnover would be lower anyway during spring and summer but without knowing the metrics hard to guess, but if I had to guess I would reckon revenue with be 30-40% lower in the spring and summer anyway. No heating, Not as much Lighting required on etc
T
In sincerely hope that the BoD or wider business have nothing to do with the drop aside from the over-careful reporting/RNS's. I don't believe that Mr Kalar and Co would be willing to allow MM's to destroy the SP for short term gain given they would be the biggest beneficiaries if another organisation put in a bid for Yu Group (Smartest possibly?).
The markets are pretty garbage at the minute, helped of course by Covid19. As I mentioned yesterday: my biggest frustration is watching terrible AIM gambles paying off while solid businesses like YU. with cash and security are wallowing around at record lows. Dare I say I have alsoseen a few "rampy" RNS's in the last couple of weeks from some organisations clearly trying to maintain SP levels with very little to offer aside from hopes and dreams.
I think we may be on for a mega bounce once the MM's have washed out he bored retail investors and the bigger buyers have had their fill. It was only 3 months ago we were on here talking about targets of £3+!
As I have been saying the last 4 RNS up dates and final results are some what bland and over negative, and as far as i can see working for the market ? I had an idea this was going to happen and said so on the BB before the RNS seems bobby wasn't on the same track it seems a ceo with so much skin in the game also has the control , time is on there side and someone is definitely helping the MMs to short it from 125p to this level imho and it seems that last RNS was so obviously negative we now know or at least guess whats going on here and where the BOD got there get out of jail free card? a quick rebound I don;t think so LTH will start to drift as will the price and the waiting game will start, seen this happen no end of times. and the final results are MMs 5 Pis 0 institutions 3
Yu can furlough staff like anyone else. They can and have deferred VAT. They mention this in their last RNS. And they're also talking about support with the Gov and ofgem. They mention this in their RNS also.
The financial impact to Yu to 31st March is immaterial. The issue is the length of lockdown/reduced consumption and what the SME landscape looks like thereafter. The Gov have already put help towards SMEs. Mass closures and unemployment is not in the interests of the majority
Just a theory but I reckon the disgraced FD Nick Parker is selling
I know I said I would stick with YU but 52.50p - this is getting extremely uncomfortable and no funds to top up.
Well trades have been in 10k chunks last one was 10,3 so maybe the last one, here is hoping...
Today the seller finished, if so expect a fast retrace
I and where does it say the Gov will not support energy suppliers ?
They are companies like everyone’s else the banks have to provide liquidity the same as the rest, but oh yeah I forgot they have 17m in cash and also smartest facility,
Smartest will buy YU said it all long
I did the same. Took a few top ups on the drop but never expected to pick up shares around 60p.
Can you imagine being the sort of person who deramps a share that has dropped through no fault of the holders or the business.