The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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TEK is pretty low at the moment so might have legs in it. But more keen on Yourgene as The times have picked a winner with Novacyt so they're hoping the same will happen with Yourgene and going by their run hopefully it's runs up to 50p plus. Or that Nova style run could be a one off.
Another one to note is Belluscuras they're awaiting approval for their oxygen mask, that company is funded by Tekcapital which is also pretty low and has a chance to jump up.
YGEN gets an approving mention in The Sunday Times today as one of seven companies to benefit from the Coronavirus crisis.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/money/hidden-science-gems-taking-on-the-fight-against-corona-3jktfb6qn
"Hidden science gems taking on the fight against corona
Should you take a bet on the little-known firms that could be our saviours?"
NCYT is briefly mentioned several times but YGEN's links with it get a slightly longer write up, maybe because NCYT was first mentioned by The Times at 38p.
Of the other shares mentioned four are listed in the US, and one in Switzerland.
So NCYT and YGEN are the only London listed shares in the article.
I hope YGEN will move up as well.
https://mobile.hospimedica.com/?option=com_mobile_article&Itemid=294781517
Nova gets emergency FDA approval with Yourgene mentioned in the last paragraph.
Load up on Novacyt and Yourgene, it's only going to get bigger.
a 5 bagger from here will do me. lol
Hi notaflipper, the finals will be out this month. Personally I would not attribute too much correlation to NCYT’s growth, sp performance or financials. For YGEN testing and production is just a new revenue stream and unlike NCYT the market is not taking views of dependency or supply constraints, a sp choke that will apply to NCYT. As far as YGEN are concerned they can deal with x number of units and scale up within existing capex to produce and test whatever their capacity is. They then have a choice, do more (scale up which costs) or turn down work. Therein lies the significance of the ebitda number in the next set of results. It’s simply cash, they have shown exceptional organic growth at the interims and are cash positive to 0.3m with more to come and how much more from the accretive acquisition of Elucigene. They reduced costs significantly in H1 and one off’s no longer apply, its therefore (imo) pretty obvious that they have slack for no other reason than being slightly ahead of the curve for the IONA platform and potential further acquisitions. Whilst the finals will be historic, pre-Covid, it’s the outlook and credit/cash position that will be key. How much work can they take on that’s Covid related without compromising the existing model and what does that model look like going forward. Is Covid a stop gap using intrinsic capacity and just a bit of extra pay costs or is it going to feature as a longer term revenue stream and if that is the case is it self financing, do they need a cash injection, do they divert funds etc. This imo is the current enigma, however, rest assured the base model (bau) is sound and the sp has not been hyped as a Covid-19 stock. It’s hardly moved, yet. Finally for those very reasons that I have painted do not expect YGEN to make an astronomical rise like NCYT or have the billion $ potential of SNG. This is a pretty safe play with risk to the upside. All imo.
Trek
I would agree with your hypothesis that the presentation seems to be done for a separate audience and added to the website in order to that the communication was available to all shareholders. Why was it produced? For whom and what purpose? Will it be issued formally next week via Walbrook or an RNS? Who knows. I believe a Trading Update is potentially due with Finals later this year. Although I do not expect breakeven to be achieved, perhaps with a shortfall of circa £1m+, I also believe now events have taken over this obvious frustration and will be discounted with other news within the next month. The scale of demand for testing, which remember will have to happen repeatedly, for the rest of the year combined with the inevitable CE-IVD award for the Illumina NIPT IONA test means that this will be achieved within the 1st Half of 2021. With the £2.5m equity raise and £2m Adgenix purchase there is already working capital avaliable. I suspect the £1.4m earn out fee for the Adgenix staff is linked to the market development in Francophone countries that is also alluded in the presentation. Although Adgenix have 16% French NIPT market share and the NIPT market there is expected to grow by 30% in the next 5 years, the £1.4m earn out fee seems high if this was the target.
Novacyt was sub 20p in January 2020, now close to breaking 200p, however they are already reaching their in-house manufacturing capacity of 4m tests per month. The UK alone could easily utilise 2m of this capacity on the target of 100,000 tests per day. So there'll be an inevitable overspill for someone, somewhere. The other question which investors must remember is YourGene's more diversified portfolio range and being the only CE-IVD NIPT test provider for both ThermoFisher and Illumina platform, in addition to potentially more larger role in COVID-19 testing. The stock was always identfied as a potential TO target by Illumina or ThermoFisher and its now more of a question as to how long they now await and what the sp will be once they make their move.
That said I believe the past disappointments, deliberate mis-steps and emotional narrative were excellently summed up by the last post of monica69 <https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/monica69/>
Thanks for posting the ppt notaflipper. I have been through it and I am somewhat perplexed as to why they posted it now when the finals are due very soon. Sure it gives an update on the NCYT deal and reiterates the growth guidance but it is essential a restatement of the September interims. Previous investor presentations have been RNS’d this one wasn’t (or hasn’t yet). I think they were asked to pull something together for someone and having done the work stuck it on the website as it does instil confidence albeit it will soon be out of date. My guess is they pulled it together for someone else's DD, possibly NHS, NCYT, TF or someone else and they have not RNS’d it as they know it will soon be out of date. Obviously they cannot include updated financials as that is market sensitive but even on a webinar one can give away ‘excitement’ when asked about how confident you are at meeting guidance. How do I know this, I don’t, but I have done it myself before in a previous life. All good, very good!
Trek
I appreciate that we have spoken much of Novacyt in this post however I think newbie investors should also estimate the expected demand for the new Illumina IONA NIPT Platform test which is expected to be significant. These two product announcements, gaining CE-IVD approval for the Illumina IONA NIPT test and expanding its role to producing the complete COVID-19 (albeit at lower gross margin to Primerdesign) should result in marked sp appreciation accordingly.
For newbies struggling to understand the narrative of Vialogy (VIY) to Premaitha (NIPT) to Yourgene (NYGEN) and the complexity of the NIPT and COVID-19 testing market please see the Company Presentation that was issued in APRIL 2020.
https://www.yourgene-health.com/images/investor-relations/Yourgene_Health_Overview_April_2020.pdf
This presentation should cover some other questions raised on Market Outlook given that there has been significant changes from the last Company report. It is surprising that the presentation was not alerted via Walbrook or a RNS so perhaps it has been published earlier by a web developer....I would save a copy.
The Illumina IONA NIPT test should allow YGEN to have an increased share of the NIPT market estimated to reach USD 7.3 billion by 2024 from USD 3.9 billion in 2019, at a CAGR of 13.5% during the forecast period. The reason why is that that these NIPT test s run on platforms (Roche, Illumina or Thermo Fisher) with Illumina having 70% of the platform distribution. So similar to a mobile phone app which previously was on BlackBerry now being available on Apple you should see a similar revision of past sales forecasts.
The rate of exponential growth in demand is demonstrated by Novacyt from 27 February 2020 having sold over £0.93m (€1.1m) of CE-Mark Pimerdesign tests and research use only (RUO) tests. To then as of 27 March, Primerdesign selling and receiving orders for over £17.8 million (€19.6 million) of its CE-Mark and research use only (RUO) COVID-19 tests. As of 27 March, Primerdesign received its largest single order to date of £1.4 million (€1.5 million) from a new customer in India following emergency use approval of the test on 26 March 2020. Its COVID-19 test is now selling to more than 80 countries and the Middle-East is becoming the strongest selling region, with orders of £1.6m (€1.8m) received in less than two weeks. The Company expects to sign further distribution partnerships during the next few weeks in this region and also expects to update on its progress in the US market following Emergency Use Authorization granted by the US Food and Drug Administration announced on 23 March 2020. Its COVID-19 test is now being used by the Health Service Executive in Ireland and orders for £1.1 million (€1.2 million) tests have been received. Primerdesign has also signed its first major distribution agreement for the COVID-19 test with Brucker to supply the test to two Asian territories outside mainland China with initial sales anticipated to be £2.1m (€2.5m) during the first six months of the agreement. It is expected that the first sales under this agreement will take place in March 2020.
Simply put however Novacyt has now reaching its maximum manufacturing capacity.
Its manufacturing partner, located in mainland Europe, BioType Diagnostic GmbH (BioType). BioType, based in Dresden, Germany, is scaling-up manufacturing and the first batches of product have been delivered to Primerdesign's Southampton site for final assembly. The level of output contracted with BioType, which, combined with the capacity from Southampton, will enable the Company to produce more than 4 million tests per month.
As to the test Public Health England (PHE) is evaluating the test in a formal evaluation process, which is expected to conclude next month. In the interim Novacyt is now supplying more than 21 hospitals across the country. Its test though covers 1,700 known variations of COVID-19.
As to the expanded demand Novacyt is purchasing additional raw materials to produce a total of 18 million COVID-19 tests. It is difficult to pin down the cost of the test due to the sensitivity of private companies looking as if they are profiting from the crisis but I believe they go for $550 – $1,000 (heavily caveated however).
As mentioned the manufacturing capacity is no way near enough for the demand and in addition to BioType scaling up it is inevitable that Yourgene and other 3rd parties will benefit from some overspill.