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Numenco up a little 90.75/91.75 and Cameco flying at $53 sold just under half my shares at $53.15 but hoping to get back in next week if it goes down.
It's not worth trading Uranium.
Just keep buying dips and holding.
any of you guys been tracing the spread in diso**** bewteen yca and sprott? seems yca closed around 45 disocount so they are about 4% apart. that seems about the closest the diso**** has been. i own zero sprott so 100% of my physcal is in yca. just wondering if worh rebalancing as feel this discount differnce has been as wide as 10%
I haven't kept this in his shape but it's got the raw data you need.
Please share any insights...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1b1VrUXbGYG6fjd0Kqh_bMh_4MTGgbQd0R9oXMx1_hzM/htmlview#gid=0
>It's not worth trading Uranium.
From personal experience... I was in the habit of holding a number of shares more-or-less proportional to the size of the discount. i.e. When it would move from -20% to -15% to -10%, I'd sell a quarter then another quarter of holdings. And this did work well for a couple of years (though I actually originally was going in and out based on a range of -10% to +10% before changing strat and doing it based on -20% to 0%, ie. not own it when at a premium), but things changed last year and it seemed like whenever there was a good trend upward the discount would be much smaller & I'd miss out on it. So mostly stopped trading it and have been a plain holder with just a few trades here and there (*checks notes* - 5 this calendar year so far).
I've not done any proper analysis but I suspect:
1) if one does analyse the price & discount data, they will find that small discounts correlate with upward movements much more since about a year ago than before then.
2) it used to be the case but I suspect it not even clear now that moves in YCA lag moves in U3O8 spot - perhaps that implies the U3O8 spot market traders are trading YCA too?
so thisiia bit rough and ready as were quite a lot of erro lines, but thanks andmillys for the data. i filtered out all the records that were for 4pm so both markets were open
over all time the differential has ranged -9.1% to 13.2% in favour of sput avg 5%. in 2024 its 0.6% - 13.2% avg 7.5%. i'm an excel guy so no idea how to share this!!! so at the 4.7% on 19th its not that interesting, but maybe slightly in favour of sput.
what i am thinking is being long both in varying ratios rather than reducing my long. i can buy the canadian listed sput as well as yca. something like diso**** current 37% of the 2024 range so own 37% yca and 63% sput. i need to have a bit more of think about it.
the correlation betwen the yca price and discount diff is 62% which means yca goes up and discount i.e it underperforms. however correlation in 2024 is -15% means yca has started to outperform on way up. this might be because sput is already trading near premium and yca has been in dogs house.
does this work https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2pacx-1vrulyonune0iik1txxjpttr-arvc2nfc1tn2mcg17keld3xjmzw946tos0n2ugjh7ssr7b_y55cig-p/pub?output=xlsx
Thank you for the refinement I would have done a bit of polishing but currently away on holiday and daringly without a laptop!
It's not worth trading Uranium.
There is always the caveat,, unless you have nothing better to be doing.
These days I have plenty of better things to be doing than trading.
Buy, hold and sitting over 100% up with little 'work' after doing the initial research.
"It's not worth trading Uranium."
IMO it is worth trading Cameco, I mostly invest but now and then trade out some of my holding and back in when the price is right. I don't always call it right but do enough of the time, fully back in now after a couple of trades yesterday. I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty and low charges with II, sometimes free. I find the SP is quite volatile with a decent range. e.g. so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual. So far have not made much on just the trading as only doing this with around 1/3 of my Cameco investment but a bit of fun and enough to make it worth while.
> I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty
Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM.
"Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM."
This is true but and I have been thinking about trading a small amount of YCA but I am having trouble predicting/guessing the discount, however the spot price trend seems to easier to predict/guess but discount make a large amount of the short term movement in the SP.
In my previous post I said
"so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual."
Should have said not unusual.