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Https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/kazakhstan.aspx has some numbers to help understand the significance of Sulphuric Acid.
These guys seem pretty sure there's plenty of supply and inventory of the stuff: https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/global-sulphuric-acid-market-faces-bearish-trend-amid-agrochemical-downturn-24623 so am not sure why miners say there's a supply shortage.
Https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1750881570297356666
Kazatomprom big miss on production
According to the SPUT tracker that bought another 100,000 yesterdya at $105. That's assuming a runrate $104k a day managemnt fees. Interesting that the offer is improving even thoguh they probably have another 200,000 to buy
Https://numerco.com/NSet/aCNSet.html
Looks to be because Numerco has lost a decimal point, quoting $10200 offered, and kitco take the mid:
Jan-24 IND 100.00 101.00 -3.00 10200.00 IND
If anyone fancies a giggle, check yellowcake.com , it has got a wild U3O8 price on their website currently.
US$549.50/lb U3O8
Daily Change $-2.99, -0.54%
Wasnt paying attention yesterday when SPUT bought 100,000lb. My calculation is they paid $105.05
Thanks for that. I've been sitting on my YCA since Russia rolled into Ukraine. Nice to think that this rally might have quite a bit further to run, but would still feel a bit queasy being an investor coming in at these levels.
Just fyi
https://www.mining.com/web/supply-risks-fuel-uraniums-flight-to-more-than-16-year-peak/
Thank you very helpful. I'd include
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fw4jAfqtgc
Interview with Joe Kelly from Uranium Markets
Brilliant new video posted today with Dustin Garrow: "Get Positioned to Capitalize on Huge Looming Uranium Supply Crunch"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cA7r1-gD0M
Merryn joined BBG about 9 months ago from Money Week I think to appeal to more retail than professional investors hence the tone of her piece.
I wanted to start a thread of some of the best talks with the top analysts within the uranium space. Here are some of my recent favorites that aren't behind paywalls:
- Nick Lawson & Ben Finegold: "November 2023 Uranium Insider Members Webinar"
link: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/november-members-webinar-full-video
- Dustin Garrow: "Procurement Strategies on Demand Surge and Market New Phase on the Next 6 Months"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNTjtZ6vuCc
- Mike Alkin & Kuppy: "Uranium Interview at the 2023 World Nuclear Association Symposium"
link: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/
- Brandon Munro & Matt Gordon: "Kazatomprom Cuts Accelerate Supply Deficit in Tightening Uranium Market; Sanctions Add Risk"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcqLe55twc
- John Borshoff: "One hour interview with John Borshoff"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tgh139bCU6s
- Guy Keller: "Outlook for Uranium"
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG9__FjeHkM
A link for anyone who can't read the without a subscription: https://archive.ph/76nCT
They have had uranium opinion pieces before: Uranium's Epic Rally Says Lots About the World Right Now, https://archive.ph/1Gk2Y
I find it funny that the new one you share reads more like a WSB post than BBG. It's not wrong (IMO) just very casual language unusual for BBG - blurring the lines between opinion and research.
I'm not convinced there's a change in how "mainstream" Uranium is becoming as an investment. Figures showing the amount of YCA and SPUT held by Private Investors going up would convince me though. I guess it is worth tracking, as peak media attention would likely be shortly followed by peak U3O8 prices. In terms of time: that's good couple of years still I reckon. And in terms of prices: there's still a way to go before there's a glut of "Uranium at all time high" ($148/lb in May of 2007) stories.
That ATH corresponds to ~1200p NAV for a YCA share BTW.
Not sure this is open to read but opinion piece on bloomberg which is first time Ive seen on here in broad investment column. Doesnt say anything we dont know, but good to track the growing "media adoption" phase.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/personal-wealth-uranium-prices-keep-going-up-but-many-still-want-it
Bought in here June 2021 and have been holding and topping up along the way.
Trading doesn't usually work for me as I often can't commit the time and attention required.
With the current situation in the Uranium market and if nothing significant changes regarding supply or demand I can see this being a hold until 2028.
I'm sure there will be 'up's and downs' along the way.
As we all know nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
Same here - I routinely traded this and took advantage of the discount range and moves, however, I am sat tight now- there is a greater probability of a move up, than a retrace
1 Mar 2022 I twisted your arm to include the NAV at $75/lb !
I had spent a couple of years trading in and out in proportion to the discount. But I've stopped doing that, last time I traded (happily a buy) was at 537.9p, in October. Like you, sitting tight & feeling comfy.
Snooz - same (prior) target here.
Not trading this at all at the moment as volatility too difficult for me to try and second guess so sitting tight.
Didnt even flicker!
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/berenberg-raises-target-price-on-yellow-cake-187tkam4fvnptuc.html?utm_source=alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2024-01-18&utm_term=news
The Berenberg target of 883p corresponds to NAV at a U₃O₈ spot price of ~111 $/lb .
>Time for new targets exceeding £10 in my honest opinion.
And that would be ~126 $/lb .
Even that seems a modest target.
Doesn't seem long ago (less than a couple of years) I was saying my target was $80/lb and I'd strongly considering exiting YCA around then - the way it's moved since, and the fact that all the factors that made me think it would increase to that level are still present, I'm still happily long this. And there's key new factors IMO: East vs West supply (i.e. European and US sanctions on Russian Uranium), and whereas 2 years ago the talk was of the price needing to go to $80 for new mines to open, now Kaz are saying the can't get the chemicals required which I read to mean they can't buy the chemicals at prices that enable them to mine it profitable at the current spot price.
Quite right, Berenberg just raised target, sees further upside and 14% discount to NAV as buy opportunity
All broker targets from 2023 have been exceeded. When does that happen in a stock? Most recent targets were from October 23. Time for new targets exceeding £10 in my honest opinion.
Nice to see the general market waking up to the realities of the uranium market that analysts like Mike Alkin have been preaching for years. It has been a long time coming.
Compulsory video for any new investors coming into the space: https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/
Long-term security of supply concerns, fanned by lingering geopolitical risks and the challenges of expanding primary production, will be the key themes to watch in 2024 and beyond.
It takes much longer to bring in a new Uranium mine that other mines so the supply side squeeze from existing suppliers is only going to become more stark.
Add the demand side growing from nations who have already committed to increasing nuclear (UK, France, Poland etc)
Last year alone, demand was around 200 million pounds and supply was about 160 million pounds...that means we're about 40 million pounds short on the supply side and that was underlined by the announcement from Kaz on Friday.
COP28 was dubbed the "nuclear COP" in recognition of nuclear power's increasing importance and a growing awareness of a uranium supply-demand gap