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92.25/93.5 @Numerco
92/93 @Numerco
For almost the last year I have attempted to keep track of YCA v SPUT discount using the data from Snooz excellent spreadsheet and the SPUT website.
The googlesheet has been running grabbing the data but I haven't been very vigilant in maintaining it. Sometimes it has gone a bit wild. I have tried to clean it up a bit and sharing the sheet here.
Seems that since Feb the average (measured 2x per day and 7 days per week) YCA discount has been 10% and SPUT 6%.
I was hoping to get some more indications on whether SPUT discount is leading indicator of YCA discount but not got very far in that analysis.
Sharing the raw data here in case anyone has better data analysis skills than I have - proviso is if you'll kindly share any conclusions you find !
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQrhCxPf9KmdOe4yqfLvRWgQwHD41NOFrtTyYAxXauptsZm8IJayCDOoS3_G3OGQDXmgzANjRc7Hgj6/pubhtml
3rd dip in 3 days, market is part of the reason today but does not explain it all as has risen from the low point of the dip and market going down all with no or very little change in Uranium price. The SP is becoming a roller coaster.
Bought a few for my partner at £6.125, hoping for discount to narrow to take some profits but will hold if still high discount.
Not sure what is happening as there have been 2 quite big dips in the SP in the last 2 days as Uranium rises a small amount. Taken advantage of the second dip to top up at £6.10 with some spare cash in my SIPP. May trade out a few if it rises back to around £6.35 (if uranium price stays the same) and see if I can do this again but want to keep most of holdings as IMO this is looking more like a one way bet for a time.
Looking to buy some Cameco but can't decide as SP and PE ratio is very high at present but not doubt will look better as the increased price of Uranium feeds into the sales.
Interesting insights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fw4jAfqtgc
Bit more 91.25/93.25 numerco
Tiny tick up at numerco: 9125/9300
What a great investment for 2023 and looks solid for a good 2024. No need to trade it and just hold.
91/93 @ Numerco
Mafia9 take a look at the right hand side of the spreadsheet https://tinyurl.com/YCA-U308
This gives a view of NAV for various spot prices.
Biggest variable is discount to NAV but this can and has flipped to premium at which point YCA have often raised funds to acquire more Uranium. GBP / USD is another variable to be aware of.
Mafia9, you might find this useful.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/edit?pli=1#gid=2006377867
Maybe NAV per Share vs U308 Price on the spreadsheet could be increased to the commonly seen targets of $150-$200
More answers to the question of who's buying Spot:
Bloomberg in October: https://archive.ph/ut3n7
Telegraph today: https://archive.is/q1ECi
“I know it sounds crazy,” he [Sean B at BNF Capital] added. “But if large macro funds start playing this investment, and sequestering uranium themselves, there aren’t many ways it can go.”
HNY! Article in the Daily T today about hedge funds “stockpiling raw uranium” - surely good news?
My question is - if URA hits $150, where do you expect the YCA share price to be? ie….. how does the YCA share price move for every $10 increase in spot URA?
Thanks in advance.
One of Antonio's better interviews.
https://youtu.be/jI0m57qA65M?si=zpo2WFpeozctU2XG
122k volume sold.
https://twitter.com/patmvcr/status/1740419582954021190?t=evt3HLCr4MqSVJJtZmiFqw&s=19
Decade-long supply crunch fears grow as miners fail to access the metal quickly enough.
Already stretched uranium supplies are set to come under further pressure as dozens of new nuclear power plants come online globally.
Britain’s long-promised nuclear renaissance edged forward this month, as a crane swung a gigantic domed roof into place on a reactor building at Hinkley Point C in Somerset.
Emblazoned across it, a large banner declares: “Helping Britain achieve net zero”.
The site’s two reactors, which are expected to come online in 2027, are among 61 being built around the world, as more countries turn to nuclear to help cut their carbon emissions.
Yet with hundreds more planned, experts are now asking where all the uranium to fuel them will come from. There is a worrying lack of answers.
The uncertainty has driven the price of the radioactive metal to heights not seen in more than a decade.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/23/scramble-uranium-supplies-new-nuclear-silk-road/
90/93 numerco
Leon addressed the "when might you sell" question at one of the more recent presos.
His answer was: I'm just the CEO and if shareholders agree to an offer I'll go along with it.
Personally, I think we will see much higher Uranium prices and would hope that shareholders are similarly aligned. How high can it go? No one knows, but this market is far tighter than the last bull market, with far more purely financial players, so I'm happy to sit tight to see if there's a spike north of $200.
On closing the discount: I'd rather YCA stay boring and not fiddle around at the margins in the hope of achieving this because a) it's really not worth the fiddling and b) any unexpected fiddling decreases the trust traders have in YCA
If there's a $200+ spike then Mr Market will eventually do his work
Smells of financial manipulation then so be back in low 80s after Xmas
This chap says utilities are about 15% of the spot market, which he also describes as "opaque": https://sprott.com/insights/video-how-the-uranium-market-works/
So who is it then? Shouldn't be Sprott.
>I assume the spot price is being pushed by utilities and none of them are big enough to take out the whole company.
I'd have thought the contrary, that utilities are all long-term contracts rather than the spot market.
Just picturing myself working at one, and being responsible for the whole uranium supply chain up to ensuring uranium rods are ready to put in the reactor.... I'd being ensuring the U3O8 supply is locked in for a few years at least, along with contracts in place for conversion to UF8 and so on. If I was having to dip into the spot market, I think that would be a sign that I'm doing a bad job?
One thing I am sure of: the whole market is extremely opaque.
I assume the spot price is being pushed by utilities and none of them are big enough to take out the whole company. Buying a bit doesn't help. Frustrating to be right, but also wrong!! Just have to be patient and see if this squeeze lasts into 2024 or its just a Xmas market phenomenon.
Agreed, except:
> but that is a pretty big amount of supply and other than the Chinese who else would have the resources.
Market cap $1.4bn right now.
It's not too big for most govs to step up and buy it. Orano still my 'fave' choice as a likely buyer. And surely there's more than a few energy companies that could rustle up the funds too(?).