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12.25P
F100
20p sp
Has competitive bidding started already?
LOL I was sitting at my desk bored.. any higher than 20p?
$1 billion finally agreed by AA after Colin had shown some great negotiating prowess, finally offering 100% of the project, all of the other licences and use of his office swivel chair.
50p. LTH and have been steadily buying (alas) over last 18 months. one day the tide will turn and / or the ship will come in.
Anything above the 0.08p (x200 = 16p) I paid back in mid 2016 will be acceptable :-)
The way I estimate the possible special dividend is to 'guess' the potential Cu content of BR, 'guess' a $ figure for Cu/T (which is difficult because one has to guess how far forward AA & CB are looking) then 'guess' what % figure would be used for the value of the Cu in the ground. I have heard estimates for this from 1% to 4% and this figure incorporates the jurisdiction the resource is in, the various standards of JORC achieved, the strip ratio, the local facilities (power, access, local available manpower) and a bunch of other things I can't imagine.
As you may have guessed (there's that word again), there's a tad's worth of guessing going on. Even so, I find it difficult to see this coming in at less than 20p unless it really has been sugar coated. But then, no matter how you look at it, it is huge. There are at least 2 porphyries and probably more (possibly around half a dozen if survey anomalies that have been hinted at are indeed due to metalisation). So, to put an edge of caution on my estimate I will predict a special dividend (not sp) of 18p.
wtf........£1.53 based on greed !!! happy days
15p, comprised of 12p buy-out and 3p residual share price. That’s my pessimistic view to counter Colin’s constant over exuberance.
12p + 3p is pretty close to my estimation which is 15p buyout + 2/3p residual share price.
Tbh none of us has a clue and its all guessing. Would surprise me but not amaze me if the buy-out was as low as 10p or as high as 25p.
It's CB's 79th birthday tomorrow, so he may want to celebrate it with a 7am RNS confirming 2mt :)
Over to you CB !
(If Carlsberg did 79th Birthdays celebrations,,,,,)
If negotiations are going on in the background, which most of us hope is the case, then I’m not hopeful of JORC/ MRE figures being released until after AA decide formally whether to make an offer or withdraw. So, personally, I’ll try not to get too worked up by nothing coming on a RNS on this for another 4-6 weeks. That said, a RNS on the Q3 gold production, soon, would be very welcome - as it (hopefully) would show FB on the path to full production in a matter of weeks, now. If that were to be the case, then we could see a reasonable increase in SP whilst we wait for the Bushranger RNS. And that would steady my nerves!
Feel like we are in a holding pattern awaiting the news. The wait has drained my excitement somewhat and need to calculate how much this might be worth is less of a buzz,... sorry ...... as the months have gone on its obvious how much assumption has to go into any numbers spouted so I'm just going to sit on my hands at the moment and wait for real news.
I noted that in a recent RNS it was stated that the Bushranger news would be by end of year, so don't be surprised if its another 6 to 7 weeks until that comes..... Will be most pleased if it comes earlier.
GLA
Was going to look into and post something along these lines, but on recollection, Bauhouse previous post from 18 Jul 2022 08:03 serves the point. It is an objective view, so worth a repost in light of some of the very modest estimates we are seeing
>>>Given that Kjeld and team are on zero pay from 20Aug21 and they are not allowed to buy Xtr shares or be awarded share options- their pay is 1% of the sale value of BR.??Do you honestly think Kjeld and team will get out of bed for £1.8m which is 1% of 180m<<
howezap, whatever the remuneration procedure applied will not change the underlying value of the asset, but, there is clearly a good incentive for Kjeld to get the maximum return possible.
I agree Cygnus, it’s the underestimation in the first place of potential asset credibility toward a value that is in question.
Do wonder where all the earlier optimism has gone, perhaps a perception of underachieving.
I don’t see that at all, Bushranger exploration has exceeded initial expectations.
howezap, I think what may have killed the early enthusiasm is that a lot of holes and time were spent drilling between RC and Ascot. I think, from memory this was to do with trying to find a common source of both porphyries and to seal off the southern reaches of RC. Other than one very good gold seam, the source was not found but a lot of weak mineralisation assets were returned. I think this gave the impression that grades overall were not economic and this led to disenchantment in the asset for those not fully up to speed.
Yes Cygnus. You have identified the nub of the problem:
"and this led to disenchantment in the asset for those not fully up to speed."
A reasonable impression, in my uninvited opinion.
Really well put Cygnus, agree too >> "and this led to disenchantment in the asset for those not fully up to speed."
There was a dependency to fully understand the association between RC and Ascot, it was the professionalism of the management team that plotted and put together the data necessary to have that geological understanding that is no doubt really important.
It’s not just about chasing grades
Trio of big buys at 3.08 average.
What a great price! took a chunk of mine at 4p well over a year ago, with. Prior to those my highest trenche was at 7.20 which I was rather pleased with at the time as I felt the share price was going to run away into the distance. Hopefully will double my money on that one yay ;-)
Anyone beat north of 7.20?
"Anyone beat north of 7.20?"
How about £1 (equivalent) SP just over 10 years ago.
I've managed to average down a coupe of times since then........
Lowest buy 0.7p (500k x 2)
Impressive Andrew, what a fantastic opportunity to average down at under a penny. Do not envy that journey south though! Drives home the frustrations that the LTH’s often show.
Us newbs obviously haven’t helped at times, so respect where due