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Now we have had some more info on plans, my best guess of what will happen next, and when is:
Feb/March Economic model released
Mar/ April FB at Full capacity Circa £350K a month PROFIT
April / May Start targeted drill campaign (may need to wait until FB income at full capacity?)
July complete targeted drill
Sept / Oct update model released
End 2023 / early 2024 sale of bushranger
I think the end game has been pushed out a bit from listening to CB pod cast yesterday.
This may not be a bad thing as I expect POC to keep rising from 2023.
Of course all IMHO. Others will see things differently
Andrew - I almost posted something similar yesterday but decided against it. My timelines were a bit more optimistic but I still didn't have a sale in Q4 2023.
I must admit to feeling a bit frustrated at the 'early 2023' timeline given in the RNS for the new modelling. I note that after the Racecourse JORC there was a CB interview on 29th Nov where he said the resource model had already gone off to the modellers. OK, so they needed Ascot too (which they now have) but how long should it take? It was actually less than a month from the last Phase 1 assay result being reported, to the release of the first model study - shouldn't it be a similar timeline? But, given the 'early 2023' timeline, I suspect you will probably be right about Feb/March and that they will sit on it until they have the FB income to fund next steps at Bushranger.
Into the bottom draw it goes.
That should read... I still didn't have a sale until Q4 2023.
The danger is watching out of the ramp followed by a short term positive run, followed by a placing.
XTR could easily go back to its bottom of circa 1.5.
CB is really struggling to find a decent ramp that will allow him to do one of his placings which fund his lifestyle in UAE
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of mid Dec 22:
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.9
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
"I suspect you will probably be right about Feb/March and that they will sit on it until they have the FB income to fund next steps at Bushranger"
Another determining factor of release time could be POC. I don't think they will want to release it if POC has gone down below the economic POC or has taken a recent dive. They may want to wait until POC is at a certain level or at least after a decent rise in POC??
I agree Mattyashy, it must be saleable as is. Say 10p/12p. I'd be more than happy with that. That leaves us with FB etc. Who else agrees? Are you out there Colin. I was originally a 15p guy.
There is a different scenario that could play out in terms of what will happen next. This posted by steve4077 after AGM. Sorry it’s a copy paste but certainly worth repeating while on the subject and considering Steve’s past as a respected poster and that the content of his findings were not contested at the time by any other attendees.
RE: Details of buy back
24 Aug 2022 09:56
I asked quite a few questions on the strategy. In principle it seems to be:??1) Announce RC decision to mine based on 500mt (ish) using a model with a copper price in the region of $8500. Total contained not specified but we can probably assume around 1.5mt. The intention seems to be to get the AA decision out of the way early. Colin expects copper price to reach 15,000, so (reading between the lines) it seems to me they want to announce this model while we are below 2mt and the copper price is low in order to get a 'no' from Anglo. I asked if getting Anglo out of the way could backfire as it removes the shield of that agreement and allows a lowball bid for the company. Colin stated that junior miners don't suffer hostile takeover attempts. The only example he could think of was SOLG and that was due to conflict within the company.??2) Phase 3 will follow the above (which is interesting as they assume there will be a phase 3) and will cover more definition on RC higher grade area to improve the IRR, further drilling at Ascot and NW of RC, which they now seem to think is actually open again. This will happen sequentially, not all at once.??3) Start talking to various majors who are more likely interested because they already have a presence in the area (Newcrest?). Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.??Based on the above, the 2mt seems to be a moot point because it will become irrelevant once AA reject (or accept) the decision to mine trigger. This seems to be a coherent strategy with defined steps. It could be a relatively quick deal if Anglo trigger the buyback on the decision to mine, or maybe 6-12 months for a different buyer. Colin made it clear there would be no JV. Whether people will be happy with that strategy will depend on their time horizon and prior expectations…….
Ok so greens here to stay but electric cars at 30/40k are too expensive for the average Joe. Auto sales will slow with copper at 15,000 if its ever acheived and open up the chances of hydrogen catching on. Theres China/serious covid, Ukraine etc. COLIN JUST ENSURE AA BUYOUT. Dont bite the hand that feeds.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still driven by electric motors. They still require predominantly more copper than pet/diesel cars, but with only a small battery pack opposed to an EV, it would tend to be the battery metals that would see reduced demand.
Copper is king however you look at it.
Hydrogen will be best placed for HGV, trains and large ships....possibly planes too.
Batteries are currently just to bulky and heavy.
'Ok so greens here to stay but electric cars at 30/40k are too expensive for the average Joe' - yea, but hardly anyone buys a car new these days, most rent/lease.
Me?! - I spend my money on bikes and drive around in an old van :)
I have 1990 740 Volvo and a 2000 s80 Volvo. Soz. Off topic!
There's no realistic substitute for copper. Aluminum may have some applications but its conductivity is lower meaning energy gets lost as heat. There is one better conductor than copper but that's silver and with its price just around $24/Oz as we speak it has few applications. The only other possibility is some new alloy but the chances are that that would be even more expensive than Copper.
My only concern is that if the price of copper goes to the sort of price I'd like to see then every village hall is going to have its copper pipes torn out by thieves. I suppose one solution there is replace those with plastic or steel! There you go, just found one substitution....
plus, sadly, all the weapons of war which have been destroyed and the future drive to replace them and then expand on the inventory. See UKR recovered about 1000 tonnes of Cu from destroyed armour. Not exactly normal kerbside Recycling is it?
Lets see how the POC goes next year.
Not just armour. Brass is still commonly used in bullet and artillery shell casings. Typically two thirds copper in brass. This is wasted copper as it really isn't that easy to collect and recycle during a war.
The scarcity of copper is often talked about in very near term scenarios. What of the future. All energy will one day be delivered for consumption as electricity (we are not going back to shovelling coal into the furnaces on steam engines to power our trains) and the future promise of limitless fusion power is always going to boil water to drive a turbine to generate electricity. My newly minted niece will likely still be alive in 2120. That is a long way ahead of the copper deficits we are looking at for 2025 or 2030.