Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Further to the discussion re FB income.
Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.
Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:
Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month
That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month
That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month
I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2
A4444 I agree with that. So how will circa £4m per year for 5-7 years translate into a SP ? Not much uplift probably but maybe someone could share their thoughts ?
"So how will circa £4m per year for 5-7 years translate into a SP"
If you assume £0.35M a month with a PE of 5 that would be £21M over current share issue of 856M = circa 2.5p
I was thinking similar 2-3p. Better than where we are I suppose but the reality is Manica as a whole will under deliver what we were led to believe. We will just have to hope that the BR study contributes a little more to the future SP.
Gf and BE income may get us to 3p but I'm not expecting any other income streams for some time - thats assuming there will be anymore.
CB has all but confirmed there will limited drill at Bushranger, after the model done, so I would think all this income will be used to undertake the additional infill drilling. Any significant sp appreciation will all be down to Bushranger and the anticipation of the sale / or actual sale.
If Bushranger is a dud and no one wants to buy it - I don't expect that to be the case at all - then its hard to see how sp will go much higher than 3p against current assets.
I'm very confident Bushranger will be sold for a substantial amount, even if we have to wait 18 months for POC to reach a certain level.
Much appreciated on the FB income calculations here, especially Andrew... impressive analysis.. and while I have to downgrade my expectatons - to the extent of somewhere between a bit and somewhat - off the back, I now think it's reasonable to do so.. and so I now agree with Andrews view (because of the good analysis and it including allowance for CB's long history of over promising too)
Re Bushranger.. I am confident it will be sold - edging towards very confident even - before 2025.. and my latest guess on the sale price for it is somewhere in the 10m to 100m gbp range .. quite a wide range to give myself good bandwidth :-) .. so being a little more range specific I 'd go 15m to 75m gbp.. and that's as range specific as I'd get at this time
NtM
If we sell Bushranger for less than £100M (10p equivalent fully diluted) I would consider that a disappointment. Against very pessimistic assumptions just the 0.6mt near surface higher grade Cu should be worth 6p min probably 8p
After all CB has said over the last 2 years, If we got less than 5p for it then I would think CB's reputation would be in tatters.
Not even he could spin that result !
And don't forget - Bird himself is on record saying he'd 'tell em where to stick it' if AA offered 10p!
If AA do not make an offer then I can see us using the African money to conduct further drilling to pad out the resource to something AA, or A N other, are interested in.
However, I think that although AA may think the resource is currently 'below spec' they also know that a resource like BR is potentially very valuable (especially in the near future) and it's other attributes (primality location and the numerous benefits that stem from that) are second to none. I can imagine they may well want to keep a toe in the door and may offer some sort of limited JV (funding possibly) to allow XTR to continue exploration on the basis the AA get first dibs (again) with some sort of sweetener (for them) should a suitable amount of Cu be found.
Just musing....
Maybe by that he meant stick it in the Xtr bank account quicker than a flying Bird, Gixxer ?
Fair enough Andrew, but not to be always agreeing with you, I'll go with less than £50M gbp for a Bushranger sale I would consider a disappointment.
( my learnings from a long time here is expect a lot less than the average of the participants on this BB would have me expect.. and I'm going to guess you're around the average in that 100m gbp comment .. note that I'm not just including the Bush bulls in that, I'm including the Bush bears too.. and for plenty of them CB's reputation is earlyish down the road tatters already, in fairness.. I'm not an Bush bear, but I'm only somewhat bullish more than strongly so)
The JORC resource is looking to be in the region of 800MT+ with 1.5 to 1.6Mt of copper after infill and any further extensions with a pre feasibility study that will then show a ‘realistic’ economic study. It will be black and white as CB’s reputation becomes quite irrelevant when this point is reached.
The lower bulk grades that make up the majority of the resource can not be ignored. It will be these that extend mine life beyond the 20 years that the big miners want. The original conceptual study established that, the then current 71mt defined resource could deliver a positive NPV return at a 0.15% Cu cut-off with at a rate of 20Mt per year at a copper price of US$5 per lb.
It concluded that the >>Racecourse deposit contains significant low-grade tonnes of copper and gold which may be economically recovered at a copper sales price above US$4 per lb<<
Phase 2 delivered more than what was asked from that study to ‘increase’ economic viability by increasing the size of the resource.
It should be a big viable resource, how could it not be? Since then, stripping ratio will reduce, due to converting waste rock into ore, high and efficient recovery rate from metallurgy samples, and copper looking to rise further into the year that all have a positive effect on lower cut off grades.
I would certainly believe it will attract a far greater value than 10p per share!