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If you have this view, then "why" would you have a position in the trust?
Good morning gentlemen. I'm not an investor in WPCT or any of his others. However I hold shares in co (W the bigest & majority holder) which, but not for him I'd be down Carey st signing on! So I'm obviously very much indebted to him for continuing to fund the Co. For sure we hear about his losers...never his winners as is the way of markets these days but longterm Healthcare is a good sector you just hope the winners cancel out the duds...if indeed he has any currently on his books.
And take a longer look at himself. For us poor investor's its not all about a cool PR photo in the countyside, wearing a posh coat, it's about pensions and things. Woodford has a good pension, His only concern should be his Pr legacy, but throw in prudential to the mix, I fear he has surrouhded himself with sycophants.
in an area of high risk, emerging companies would anyone commit over 30% of their capital to just one sector (healthcare), and then commit nearly 50% of that to one company? Any financial advisor would say that, risk wise, it's mad. If one company is that good, why has'nt someone like GSK or AZN swallowed it up long ago? I think Woodford has been on an ego trip with this fund, and needs to look at his team of analysists.
for those who may have missed it....here is Woodford's update on PRTA that today was published in his blog https://woodfordfunds.com/words/blog/prothena/ It provides some information that helps put the present situation into context and should soothe some nerves.
for sure, it wouldn't be too surprising to see wpct somewhere into 70s. atb.
Indeed absolutely true ref liquidity Spikeyj, however I think the perceived threat will be enough to drive an additional, unwanted, downward spiral. hope your buy on way down works. for me the worry is that 'down' might be quite a bit further than we are now and I don't see what in the portfolio is going to bring it back short term, or possibly even medium term. so while averaging down feels like reasonable as this is Woodford after all, but if / when that sentiment turns seriously, Prothena and Purple Bricks exampled, the bargain buys might be in a few months time. all part of life's little conundrums! All the best
"... plus could then cause a liquidity problem and that will force another round of selling ..." bear in mind it is an investment trust, not a unit trust structure, so they don't have to manage impact of redemption demands.
09:23, snap. (but just for a small p/folio %.) the serious question is a long term one, whether this sector can generate good long-term returns. s/term, lord knows. (do wonder though if he should limit stake %s.)
i am sadly one of those who bought a chunk near launch time so am now merrily watching the decline.... I note some of the posts below saying good time to buy. I was of that opinion too but have now changed my mind. my unfortunate logic goes as follows...it is one thing Prothena getting hit by the Kerisdale short and if true will have much more downside to hit the fund considering size of holding. just as worrying to me is the size of holding in PurpleBricks which I have very grave concerns is about to unravel too (much documented on the business model, lack of sales and high staff turnover etc . given the size of the holdings, Woodford cant sell without precipitating a run on either stock so is stuck in wait and uncertainty mode. in that climate can only see more downward pressure. if both companies do suffer the worst and do collapse then his fund will be suffer an horrific decline in NAV way more than we have seen since launch, plus could then cause a liquidity problem and that will force another round of selling. so then one s left looking at the remaining portfolio to see the next unicorn(s) and assuming there are a few in there somewhere they will probably be a few years to materialise and the fund will need a great many of these minnows to come good just to get back to IPO NAV, given the fund track record to date the odds seem to be slimming near term.... so all in all while I haven't sold out yet, I am not planning to buy either - going to have to remain patient as the fund requires.... all a bit grim in the near term I fear. good luck to all.
Good price, or correct price?
Fare comment AUNBoy. If Kerisdale are correct though, it may also lead to a larger discount to the nav.
question would be, if prothena does indeed get poor research outcomes on the trial, is it just some bad luck to be taking in stride, part & parcel of l/t investing in this domain, or does it speak to woodie's stock-picking skils in this sector? - if the latter, then WPCT valuation could be affected more broadly...
Can Woodie avoid companies that are likely to be targeted by shorting hedge-funds!!
*who = would
Kerrisdale seem to be calling out the tests that Prothena have performed and the interpretation of the results - and do sound rather convincing I hate to say! If you were Prothena and were confident in your product who you not come out and defend it against a high profile attack - surely yes?
am inclined to agree with 08:51. woodie's made his bed with that huge prothena stake and must lie in it. issuing 'statements' is not really gonna make a lot of difference one way or t'other. war of words between the hedgies & woodie pointless.
What can Woodford say? Kerisdale were nearly spot on with ALM and sound confident on Prothena
As I see it is, Kerisdale say that Prothena could fall as much as 80%. It's 16% of Wpct so that could account for a fall of about 12p of the trusts value. If they're right of course.
buy order set for 81.0p. (soon?) i will take a double smidge if gets there.
....Predicted failure for a drug called Sage 547 from Sage Therapeutics in March 2016. Its share price was around $60.......it's now $84 and from some basic reading it appears Sage 547 is deemed a success. So Kerrisdale were wrong? It appears that may be the case
prothena lost 1/7th so far in one day...
bears' picnic!
45.4 ... presumably a fair few are selling simply as it's hit their pain/panic level, but a more interesting issue, is there some insider selling going on from folks inside to the data within the prothena trial(s)?
45.82 USDPrice decrease6.10 (11.76%) ouch