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seems to be dropping rather quickly?
im still in mate for the even longer term looking at my portfolio today been trying not to look but it seems to go down more eack week. oh well
never much chat on this BB, or much interest on lse it seems (no trading activity at all today!). Its a shame - this is one of my oldest and most stubborn shares - been looking at the business more in the past week and I feel they have real potential for when the market begins to recover. I'm glad I decided to stay in for now, it was touch and go for a while..... (see my previous post!)
i would sell half and spread it out into another shares TW. , BAE , TSCO , SGRO and LLOY all looking cheap at the moment or hold untill after the budget in case of more bad news
Any views out there for Warners? I'm 84% up at the moment - toing and froing whether to take the money and run (maybe buy back) or wait it out fotr a while and see...
This should give a hint on current activity: "The Group has now achieved property disposals from its wholly owned portfolio totalling £120m since 30 September 2008, which completes the previously published programme of property sales to reduce the Group debt" NEXT STEP? Any clues....? Like, how are the Bank talks progressing and how do these asset sales affect the REIT PID? Still one to watch I suspect and still plenty of sellers around
whats going on these are flying??????????????????????????????
thank god i got in these last week after selling AV. hopefully good news coming about banking covenants due to sell offs. hopefully these will continue up and up
i have now decided to jump ship on this one taking a loss but making it up quicker on AV. shame liked this company but things dont look good for them at the mo with no news on re finance and cheap sell offs of assets to many other bargains elsewhere at the moment
As I've said before I don't see any recovery in this until the market gets news on whether or not Warner will breach their banking covenants (due 31st March, but the news will conceivably be released sooner). Until then I just see it oscillating between 18-23p. I'm looking for proof of a sustained recovery before getting back in, so I'm waiting till it hits 30p.
lots more buys than sells today, hopefully this share has now bottomed out
I believe the issue has less to do with survival or bust and more to do with the result of their debt rescheduling and what effect that has on the resultant return (PID) - actually I suspect the banks DO understand - why would they profess to know more about property management than Warner does, something at which it excels? Why sell an investment at 8 - 10% when you're paying 5-6%? They have a conundrum here - love to be a fly on the wall at the bank meetings! Heavy institutional (auto) selling doesn't help - there was a volumn of £1m shares one day before Christmas, purely on portfolio balancing
My worry is you've answered your own question there: why throw money away in a sinking company? To give the market some confidence you may not be about to go bust. It's all relative: 20k might not be great deal to Mr Warner, but if it's enough to give a semblance of confidence to the market, all good. WNER's big problem, other than the falling value of their assets, is debt - £400M of it apparently and the banks aren't too understanding at present! I agree though if they can get through the current crisis, they're probably a steal at these prices. I'd say that applies equally to bank shares at the moment though and with government backing they look like a safer bet.
I still think this is a good buy for the long term I dont think the directors would buy more shares if they did not believe that they could survive as why throw your own money away on a sinking company.its all about confidence in the market and its been nothing but doom and gloom and possibly more to come so hopefully if they can get through 2009 i think its a good investment but as i have always said im loking 5 years plus on all my shares
Some more significant director buys yesterday (20k) leading to a big percentage jump. Does anyone reckon this has finally hit bottom? Or will the SP continue to dwindle until April when they either repay their debts or go bust?
I'll continue to watch this one, wouldn't rule out getting back in at some stage, but the SP at the moment seems relentlessly downwards. And that's not something you can attribute to the current market, the price has fallen steadily since early '07. Even looking shorter term, the current price is 10% of what it was a year ago. Tough times generally, but these seem to be taking a bigger pasting than most - it's a drop comparable with the banks, but at least the banks have HMG to bail them out. BTW, the director buys I referred to were negligible, less than 500 shares each, so cold comfort I'm afraid. It's a pretty nasty combination of falling property prices and a lot of their retail tenants struggling too. That said, after financials, analysts expect retail will be the next to recover. If they survive into April I think they could be a decent bet.
Im in this one for the long term all shares are performing badly at the moment i believe that WNER wll take advantage of the down turn and come out stronger when things get better in a couple of years.We will still get a REIT payout next year not sure how much but it all helps.my average on these is a lot higher than the current SP but happy to wait 5 years plus. I compleatly agree with you directors would only buy if they had confidence in the company an they know things will get better(hopefully)
If I was a director of a company, I wouldn't be buying shares unless I felt they represented good value and I certainly wouldn't if I thought there was a risk of insolvency. In these days of banking uncertainty, it's all about management and management is where WEH excels. This is one on which to take a long term view and where the demand for cash these days is high, there will always be sellers out there - including you it would seem!
Hmm. I'm new to this, but I'm not sure I share your view of the results. I sold these yesterday at a big loss after reading the report. Of particular concern was the PWC-comissioned report, which ended: "These disclosures indicate that there is a material uncertainty as to whether the Group may breach its loan to value banking covenants at 31 March 2009 which may cast significant doubt about the Group's ability to continue as a going concern" Doesn't that suggest it could go the same way as Woolies? The sp rise today can (I think) be attributed to directors buying up the stock (looks that way on http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/marketnews/marketnews.htm?bsg=true&ns=WNER), presumably in an attempt to bolster confidence. Like I said though, I'm pretty inexperienced at all this and if there's a reason that the above shouldn't worry me, I'd appreciate someone explaining. Always keen to learn from my mistakes!
results as expected, dividend postponed to preserve cashflow, REIT status means they have to pay it so watch the price go up over the summer?
thats me out offbanks and all in on this one hopefully good results posted tommorrow
yes - everyone wins on this one - sellers win because the price goes down and they can buy back cheaper - buyers win because they get a hefty dividend - risk is always a potential cut in dividend but this share is largely protected as a REIT - unless all their tenants go bust but that's unlikely in the short term - December's interim announcement will be interesting
great i stock up today at 82p and it bloody drops and when i sell it rises but as i said in for the long term on these
annual dividend yield currently running at 25%, looks best value in the property section