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Where’s the source or is it based on non-public info? If the latter , well that’s illegal. If not the former, well it’s just made up.
Comment was merely empathetic to a possibility and caveated Biggs. What's your take on the future?
A t/o suggestion. When in doubt...........
Fair point anon. I recall in the early days of production that Foo said our gas was being sold at a 30% discount to heavy oil but since then the price of oil has collapsed. Whereas in the west we are very conscious about the pollution question, many in Africa are happy to use cheaper, dirty alternatives to our gas. But it's clear now that VOG is only ever going to do well in Cameroon through big power and the catch 22 is that we won't get big power without funding as we are broke.
So sparrow makes a good point that some form of takeover or merger looks more and more likely.
Whether we mugs at the bottom of the pile ever benefit is another matter.
Sorry, but that's not enough to suck me in at this price.
There's one basic problem with VOG.
There's simply not enough demand for the gas they can already produce!
Why you'd want to expand with another pipe at the cost is just beyond me.
Nothing concrete, cardbrag - just research that anyone could do.
If it's got legs, then the price should rise considerably. That £45.9m is going to fall into someone's lap, and soon, and VOG seems a better option than GKP and LEK, so let's hope it turns up here.
Good luck.
An interesting hypothesis sparrow. And not beyond the realms of possibility. But bearing in mind your earlier comment, is this merely your personal take on the future for VOG or are you aware of something concrete. I presume I won't get an answer to the second part but if it transpired and created any sort of reasonable spike, you won't see me for dust.
(cont:)
- Vog (Gaz Du Cameroun) has the production, and opportunity to expand production, that SEY seeks, together with low-risk exploration (same structure), to use SEY's technical capabilities, and to expand into other blocks, and partner with New Age (and AKSA) in other projects in Africa.
- YF Finance has a stake in VOG (23.71%) and SEY (3.56%). Likewise Zion SPC Access Fund has SEY (16.64%) and also VOG 5.05% (@Oct 2018, but now?). SEY also use to run the Ntem Concession adjacent to the Southern Maritime Border of Cameroon (hence familiar with the geology, economics and politics). Note too, that Russian Kroupeev's Waterford Finance (SEY 29.3%) has invested in Kazakhstan (Jupiter Energy 30%), that YF Finance is Kazak based; and that VOG own legacy assets in Russia (still hoping to farm this out, or sell) and Kazakhstan ($35m provision in books as write down of licence they hope to regain - YF influence possible?). Too key VOG / GDC management, Kate Baldwin and Eric Friend, have both worked in Russia/Kazakhstan.
- New VOG CEO, Roy Kelly, is undertaking a complete operational and strategic review. I expect him to report on this at the June AGM. YF Finance took their stake in SEY on 24/04/20, have now shown their hand. Thus I expect a merger or RTO very soon - before VOG's June AGM maybe - but at least before 2020 is out.
I have taken a stake in VOG.
(cont:) Here are some points worth noting:
- VOG is a Cameroon- based company - they have legacy interests in Russia (Koupeev is Russian) and Kazakhstan (YF Finance is Kazak/(Russian)).
- VOG has new management - CEO Roy Kelly is ex-Kerogen (key shareholders in New Age, with Etinde block); and Robert Collins is a corporate transaction specialist (VOG is in no position to make acquisitions, only mergers).
- Vog is a typical distressed company (that YF Finance and Hadron Capital specialise in investing in. They have some great assets and opportunities, but insufficient cash. See the big map on the VOG website. They need $11.3m to drill an exploration well by end 2020, to retain their Matanda block (same structure as producing Logababa field - thus low-risk exploration). They also need debt funding to build a 60km pipeline linking (and taking a cut as pipe-operator and processing plant) to link New Age / Bowleven's Etinde field (FID end of 2020) with a AKSA - build (end of 2020) power station. They also perhaps have $10m+ legacy legal liabilities to cover (too, they might want to buy-out their difficult Logbaba partner, RSM Production); a possibility to regain the 44km2 of the relinquished Logbaba Field; and perhaps an opportunity to pick up the entire Bomono licence that New Age are in the process of returning to government.
(continued):
Ginoir, here is the information I was alluding to, and have put up on SEY board:
Sterling's $44.9m cash - this will definitely been spent in 2020 on M&A - too many distressed opportunities not to (the Genel decision on Somaliland is not material to this) and money will not be returned to shareholders but exchanged for a distressed asset - which will take time to perform. Thus the major quick money will be made not by investing here, but my investing in the distressed asset that will get the $44.9m funding. 80% of SEY is owned by 6 shareholders - they will determine the distressed asset to be purchased. Given Kroupeev's you might expect it to go to GXP; and Zion's interests perhaps LEK, but now I believe the frontrunner is VOG {Note: Hadron Capital has taken a punt on both - Vog (10.7%) and Lek (3.86%)].
24/04/20 YF Finance took 3.56% in SEY. This Kazak outfit owns 23.71% in VOG; and they will push for the $44.9m to be invested there. This is what you need to know about YF Finance: https://www.occrp.org/en/paradisepapers/kazakhstans-secret-billionaires
[They also own 17.2% of RUR - power plants, power generation and rural electrification (not unlike VOG/GDC)].
SEY wish to partner with an 'onshore low-cost operator who will benefit from our cash to develop and explore their existing portfolio'; looking to 'leverage a production foothold and include low-risk exploration commitment.' They have 'a good technical, commercial and financial team with a full set of operator capabilities'. Their preference/experience is Africa. VOG fits the bill perfectly on all of the above. (continued):
maybe project 3030 is about to get announced?
we start by justifying the £11M mar cap?
did it come in book form?
or, did someone find the link to malcy's "its a banker" prediction with TP 240+p
lol - always good for a laugh.
every BB has a tipster hindsight good.
I have an inkling of why the interest here (same as mine) and will explain soon.
Will that be before or after the release of said news?
Thanks, Ginoir. Very helpful.
Nice to see the spread at 4.21 - 4.45 momentarily today. Lots of buys today, (including the 500,000 at 4.25p late trade, imo - I, too, managed to buy at that price yesterday).
I have an inkling of why the interest here (same as mine) and will explain soon.
SCAP now 4.0-5.0, so no MM selling below 5.0
Re. That apart, it's amazing that this is actually still seeing rises on ocassions.
It isn't. SP goes up aand down daily and by roughly the same amount
Thanks, Ginoir.
Current spread 4.02 - 4.44 is 10%, better than before, but still too high to attract any volume from traders.
SORRY, SHOULD READ:
STFL 2.5-5.0
CFEP 3.0-5.0
SCAP 3.5-4.5
WINS 3.5-5.5
PEEL 4.0-5.0
PLUS THERE HAS BEEN ONE SEEMINGLY PRIVATE INVESTOR AT 0.01 ABOVE/BELOW THE MM PRICES FOR MONTHS, PROBABLY MAKING HAY GIVEN THE SPREADS, FAIR PLAY IF YOU CAN PULL IT OFF...
STFL 2.5-5.0
CFEP 3.0-5.0
SCAP 3.5-4.5
WINS 3.5-5.5
PLUS THERE HAS BEEN ONE SEEMINGLY PRIVATE INVESTOR AT 0.01 ABOVE/BELOW THE MM PRICES FOR MONTHS, PROBABLY MAKING HAY GIVEN THE SPREADS, FAIR PLAY IF YOU CAN PULL IT OFF...
PEEL 4.0-5.0
and i'm in
still in BLVN?
there is no plan, AFAIK.
"Occasions"even.
Double, double letters always throw me.