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With €4Bn Spain cash and another €6Bn from Italy plus Cash in hand. FY div looks safe. Near and medium term debt covered and some will roll over . If MDV has the underlying cash flow nailed, this must be the bottom, surely?
" With €4Bn Spain cash and another €6Bn from Italy plus Cash in hand. FY div looks safe "
Are you suggesting the DIV comes as a return of assets, rather than as a result of earnings from performance ??
A return of asset sale cash is NOT a performance dividend gained from earnings and the market wont be as easily fooled by it
Between now and 2028 they have €13 Billion in debt maturity, but the €2.76 Billion maturing next month should be well covered by the current working capital, leaving €10.24 Billion to be paid down or refinanced after January. At the end of this financial year I'm assuming VOD will have around €7 billion in cash, as well expecting at least €4.1 billion in cash and up to €900 million in preference shares for the Vodafone Spain sale. If they go for the Iliad deal it'll add a further €6.5 Billion cash, although I'm not sure what the €2 Billion shareholder loan is about and I believe Iliad will have an option to buy an additional 10 per cent of the venture’s shares every year, giving Iliad a path to take full control of the JV.
The VOD/Three merger will likely require an amount of cash for investment and buying out Three from the JV down the road, which is what I think the plan is. I'd speculate that VOD will let Italy go over time and shift investment into the UK, maybe also picking up distressed Altnets as they become available. I only looked at the debt maturity between now and 2028, but there's more debt maturity due in subsequent years.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=17624073&format=interactive
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=1681133451&format=interactive
I wont speculate on the dividend, I'll leave that to others, although there's probably a case for halving it.
I am following E& and expecting the dividend to coninue to return to investors, maybe even increase a little bit.
MDV says,
'Consistent with its previous statements, Vodafone is supportive of in-market consolidation in countries where it is not achieving appropriate returns on invested capital'
Italy and Spain tick those boxes.
Like the rest of the market, I am expecting national economies and therefore telco usage and connectivity requirements to pick up and uk, germany, NL et al to drive service revenue growth and with the cost control and initiatives well underway, FCF to continue to underpin the div policy.
The danger is too much cash and rubbish investment. Sweat the portfolio for the next couple of years imo
" MDV : Vodafone is supportive of in-market consolidation in countries where it is not achieving appropriate returns on invested capital' "
yes @vodger ....and I think MDV will seriously look at the merger proposal ,...either that or sell the whole unit.... Italy is a basket case in terms of no economic growth and high public debt
In the meantime a large buy [O] trade just came in with 39,025,979 vod shares at 67.25p per piece Off-Book
Accordingly its currently showing a 'buy' volume of 45,525,309 versus a 6,397,963 of 'sell' volumes. The trade took place at 12:41:02 Gmt.
Companies would be better not paying dividends and reinvesting the cash instead, buying back shares or paying off debt. Use the cash to create shareholder value. I'm sure i read somewhere Charlie Munger shared the same view, suggesting companies only pay dividends because they don't know what to do with the cash. You could argue it's rewarding shareholders, but it's a huge amount of cash leaving the business that could and should have been put to use. Many of those shareholders won't reinvest in the companies shares so it's cash that quite literally leaves the business and does nothing for the company whatsoever.
Yesterday’s gains to be totally wiped out and then some
Same as the Three merger news
Vod has no bottom
Yes.. they wiped out all the gains.. MDV rns yesterday was unnecessary. They only made the offer , why she need to provide update when she did not when share price was falling..
Top job Margharitta
MDV will be sacked in a few months unless she can stop the rot which she can’t.
Over 30% decline during her short tenure
The next 30% will come fast and hard
God I wish you would drop fast and hard, from a 50 story building. So Tiresome!
I need to correct something. I said:
"Between now and 2028 they have €13 Billion in debt maturity, but the €2.76 Billion maturing next month should be well covered by the current working capital, leaving €10.24 Billion to be paid down or refinanced after January."
I missed off €750 million maturing at the end of January, I should have said:
"Between now and 2028 they have €13 Billion in debt maturity, but the €3.51 Billion maturing next month should be well covered by the current working capital, leaving €9.49 Billion to be paid down or refinanced between January and the end of 2028."
Be careful what you say here
There’s a lot of in-denial going on
What comes next gotoutjustintime😀?
From my end I believe the worse is behind Vodafone. The share price has taken plenty of tumbles to date.
By looking back the last three months and reviewing all the buy and sell volumes, I can confirm that today is actually the first day that the trading volumes are stacking up nicely for the longs. There isn't not much left to hack off the share price at current levels. I would say that its the bottom. If that Lliad and Vodafone Italia merge does indeed become a reality , than I can easily see Vodafone share price to shoot past 90p. What happened yesterday was just a teaser. Keep it cheerful 😀
NO FEAR - I agree that VOD is at or very near to the bottom of its SP range. There is plenty of money coming into this enormous company. Posters here have no real idea of the size of this complex business. Also Beo1 don’t let Jax05 get to you, just filter the tw at out, he’s a waste of space & it’s well known that the 05 refers to his IQ, one sad muppet
Jax05, how do you know all these things ?
'MDV will be sacked in a few months unless she can stop the rot which she can’t.
Over 30% decline during her short tenure
The next 30% will come fast and hard'
It's just that you sound like a genius, even though I'm sure you know that already.
It's a pity I hadn't read your rare wisdom before buying 100,000 more shares at 65p each recently, ah well ccan't win 'em all.
Great Stuff
Me and Barclays think alike
20-Dec-23 Vodafone (VOD) Equal Weight - 92.00 Reiteration
https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/broker-ratings/brokers/barclays.html
I said 90p. Barclays previously said 90 on the 29th Nov. They've improved today by 2p.