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Not going to wait for the dead cat bounce. Probably will have to wait until it hits 40's, lol.
Luckily, I only bought very few just for fun. So, only about £200 hit, not so hurtful, lol.
Makes sense, you never really know where it will turn. I think it will though, just have to wait.
The fundamentals are dire here imv. It seems obvious to my mind that the dividend is likely to be slashed eventually if not suspended indefinitely. In addition, my prediction is that a massive dilutative Rights issue will be forthcoming to reduce the unsustainable debt pile. After such events occurring, it could become tempting to do some bottom-fishing.The risk/reward profile then could offer lucrative gains.
I wondered about that, RI and consolidation. Somethings driving the price down here. I have no idea how likely those options are, but RR denied there's really soon before the did the RI. TUI had 3 RI"s and that hurt the share holders greatly.
Why do they need an RI
It’s not loss making and debt is being paid
If I'm understanding it correctly then Vodafone India merged with Idea Cellular in 2018 and they ran a large RI in 2019. I'm assuming that that is nothing to do with the Vodafone we're invested in today, but at the time it was the largest RI ever in India I believe and would have led to a 70% dilution for shareholders that did not particpate or sell their rights. Now, as I said I don't think this is our Vodafone today, but the rationale I believe was based on high levels of debt in the sector and ongoing difficulties in earning enough to cover it and run the business effectively. We are seeing a gradual erosion of value in Vodafone here and it does have substantial debt. I'd be very interested to know whether a RI is a possibility and to be honest after RR denying they were about to make one (just before they did exactly that), I would not find it easy to believe a denial from the company itself. They do get messy so I guess it is worth bearing in mind.
Many SH's don't really understand RI's and end up being well diluted.
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/story/rights-issues-explained-why-ignoring-them-doesnt-make-sense-188186-2019-04-12
Here's an article from Motley fool from September, I'm sure it was posted here at the time, but why not have a refresher.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/09/25/whats-wrong-with-the-vodafone-share-price/
Not sure why vod would go for a RI when it has significant cash & hasn't (yet) reduced the dividend; takeover seems equally unlikely. The erosion of value is being addressed, could ultimately fail, but I've not seen anyone unhappy with the streamling/cost saving/ service improvement approach suggest anything which
....could make a difference.
Ippolit, hopefully it's a ridiculous thought, but it seems to be struggling and that article from Motley fool suggests that it'll be pretty difficult for 2024/2025 alos. They do suggest the dividend is expected to be kept for that period, but I'm personally not sure how they can justify it.
The motley fool is for people who have a £10 a month DD into their isa account. For me this has dropped for the obvious current stories and the fact the regulation on this sector worldwide is a complete straight jacket to try and operate within. But the downgrade from exane is a hammer blow. I’m sure most on here will know, they are very well respected and when they talk, people listen!
Bub
''my prediction is that a massive dilutative Rights issue will be forthcoming to reduce the unsustainable debt pile''
why would rights issue be needed for an easily financed sustainable debt pile. A reducing debt pile is a nice to have not a need to have.
Selling non performing assets with having share buybacks is by far the better option.
Sidi
I have always found it is better to buy at lows, rather than sell at lows.
Maybe the market will give me the opportunity to purchase more tomorrow and Friday.
The market is almost telling the BOD they need to cut the dividend and is also resetting itself based on a lower FCF and a tougher challenge on earnings growth, given the competition. Earnings growth is likely to come more from cost controls and efficiencies than gaining mych growth from the likes of business...until the interest rate pains recede IMO
It seems likely of course that the share will over sell, but at present any City bulls dont seem to have much interest in fighting the bears
Not only that, who'd be idiotic enough to have a rights issue when the share price is in the doldrums? If Vodafone were getting desperate, they'd just drop the dividend and save €2.48 Billion a year. I've seen this dilutive rights issue nonsense before, it's a line used to scare the nervous into selling their stock.
MLong
The status of exane's downgrade is now closed
https://www.stockomendation.com/tips/7-dec-23-exane-underperform-vod-vodafone-group
It may well be but the word was put out there.
"It may well be but the word was put out there."
Agreed, but this also tells me they expect reversal soon otherwise they would've left it open
Yes longtimeinvester, normally we do that, but it seems wrong to so in VOD's case. It just looks bottomless like an abyss. I don't have the confidence to stay, but good luck to all faithful long term holders. Have a very good evening my friend.
...to 'do' so...
Sidi, so you have jumped ship?, i cant say i blame you, i wish i had done so a long time ago, i just can't bring myself to sell at a big loss at the moment, will i regret it who knows, the other thing i think about here is even if it does start rising, how quickly will it rise and by how much, and will it get left behind and continue to under perform compared to other shares
if only we knew all the answers
best of luck whatever you all decide
Well Rod the div yield tipped over 12% overseas so expect a drop to 63p tomorrow
Talking about Hamas over there oh dear
Bye Vod lol
Yes robleo, I cut my losses and ran. Very important need know when to stop losses and preserve the capital, lol.
I bought BME instead. It had a big dip today because one of its big investors sold huge number of shares. Fingers and toes crossed. Hope that I didn't pick up another falling knife, lol.
Hello rob, or is rod? "Talking about Hamas over there, oh dear"! I can't make any .sense out of jax lately! I think his correct predictions about the fall in the vod sp have gone to his head. Power mad? Today Vodafone, tommorow the world. Very strange person. M.G.! As for s.i.d.i. well, what can you say? No bottle, but wise perhaps?