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fleccy
Tesla isnt just EV - they have hundreds of thousands of people paying say $200 a month subscription to use auto driving software - it is something that brings in a lot of cash and Tesla could licence elsewhere when it wants to - and they are putting the price up 20% or so ..chi-ching
Yawnnnnnnnnnn. Tesla's a rubbish overpriced investment at 107 P/E ratio. The other manufacturers are heavily investing in EV, and other companies are now building EV battery manufacturing plants. I'm not anticipating Tesla will go bust, but it wouldn't surprise me if it lost 4/5 of its share price as other manufacturers EV's become popular. A fair price for Tesla is probably somewhere in the region of $180 a share.
@hungary. Yes I’m still in Tsla, I started buying them in 2016 and they are my largest position, I dumped the last of my U.K. holdings and loaded up with more at 610 so I’m up 50pc on that trade in two months while everything sterling related is in freefall. Tsla is the best risk adjusted investment out there, cars, ai, power storage and years ahead of the competition, model Y will soon be best selling car in U.K. as well. Why would buying tsla shares make Elon rich? I buy them becos they have helped make me rich, same as Msft and apple have done. With USD protection. Tsla will be 1100 split equivalent by Dec and 1500 next year, I love the investment. Vod is dogshxt, its debt ridden low profit rubbish with a declining biz model and hopeless management that idiots like you buy for a fast evaporating dividend to watch your capital erode. The U.K. and it’s indexes are a wreck, it’s not getting better as the U.K. is energy poor and has a depreciating currency and brexit was a disaster still unfolding. You just don’t buy this U.K. crxp anymore. Property market next to collapse, check out builders and hardware shares if you want to see even bigger destruction. Long term chart analysis on capital markets has Vod at .50p in five years and Msft double where they are now as they compound with zero debt and earn a billion usd a week profit. What would you rather “ invest “ in?
There are no compelling reasons or rush for investors to buy these or any other shares at present.
Recessionary risks for all economies over the coming months are highly significant so be prepared for the value of your stocks to decline from here on. We have been here before & for those new to investing treat this time as a learning curve. Remember you haven't lost anything unless you sell at a loss.
The only thing I see that could go against this is if & it's a big if, the Ukraine war were to end that would lift SP's considerably.
why didnt they sell Italy when they had the chance?
Most of the markets for Vodafone are tough. They will probably need to sell it all of one by one. This will be a much smaller company over the comming years.
plus they got fined 3.9 million euros in Spain - Spain is hard work for them
They don't do well financially in Spain - very price competitive and many end up taking "cost cost" Lowi options
Hope they sell Australia too and Ghana.
I hope they sell it. I also hope they sell everything bit by bit, Greece, Romania, Portugal, Albania, Turkey
Does anyone think that VOD will sell their Turkey operation ? - they have invested a great deal of money there over the years and they have 20m+ customers - but Turkey is another headcase country with their current political direction and currency is worth less by the day
"Dan, we all like Fleccys very optimistic posts mate and we really want to believe, if you listen to the likes of Hargreaves Lansdowne they will tell you, be prepared to invest in a share for at least 5 years, what they don't tell you is which 5 years ?"
I don't think my posts are optimistic, they just reflect my honest opinions. If you want a easy example of a stock beaten down by the media, take a look at BT; Telegraph stories pop up out of the blue about VMO2 and Sky forming a Fibre partnership, or VMO2 taking over Talk Talk and BT's share price immediately takes a hammering, even though it's highly improbable the stories have any real substance; Or they'll bang on about BT's Pension deficit and debt, neither of which are an issue for the company. What you'll rarely read about is BT's projected cost savings going forward, or the value of the Fibre they're putting in the ground, or the value of the individual assets like EE making up the whole. If BT is so cr@p, why are investment funds lending Billions to Altnets to build a fraction of the future FTTP geographic coverage of Openreach?
The reason I focused on BT, in the last paragraph, is because the positives are clear to see as well as easy to explain, and the negative sentiment projected in the media is also easy to spot. Vodafone's a much more complex beast, with a wide range of companies controlled by Group, but Vodafone is a cash printing dividend paying machine in a safe sector, and I can't see any reason why it shouldn't be at least 160p to £2 in the future.
Since I have no immediate plans to sell any of my investments, I really don't care how low they drop, it just means I get more stock when I reinvest the dividends, leading to higher dividends at the next payout, and so on until the prices recover.
Dan, we all like Fleccys very optimistic posts mate and we really want to believe, if you listen to the likes of Hargreaves Lansdowne they will tell you, be prepared to invest in a share for at least 5 years, what they don't tell you is which 5 years ?
hope we get a good up day tomorrow
Porsche, how is your Tesla holding going? I think you tipped them @$1200. Hope you keep buy Elon”s stock to keep him rich
What else should Vodafone sell in europe all the Romania, Greece , Czech republic?
Mehmehmeh
No, NL makes up a strategic spoke of Vod competitve advantage. A few of Europe's biggest tech companies have HQs in Nl and millions of people travel to and from NL and its right next to their biggest market, Germany.
Should Vodafone sell it's joint venture in Netherlands?
Porsche, better than lloyds just short JDW its the share that keeps on giving absolute no brainer £750 mill debt, Tim Martin still has his energy fixed till next year and is still making a loss now. Yes he owns a lot of pubs but no-one will want to buy them soon. Share price will start with a 3 come the winter
Fleecy Ive got a larger position in Barc compared to lloy. The only downside with lloyds is I think they are more geared to the uk economy than Barc.
The banks are starting to get a slating now already for not passing interest rate increases to savers, won't be long till Martin Lewis gets his teeth into them. Personally I'm also in insurance sector big time still undervalued once they pass additional costs on to the consumer I believe this will change.
Regarding VOD I've been in and out for many years, yes I totally agree regarding passing on price increases. I'm short as of yesterday as I feel that Vod along with a large number of FTSE 100s are elevated because of the £/$. The $ I think is overvalued now, I think the US have fudged the numbers so to speak and the £ will strengthen with interest rate hikes, I believe the market is too pessimistic on the UK GDP figures. I think the EU will be really bad come the winter.
Mesh - well thats what I would have thought but the debt is still there ?
Mrcautious
Just to put things into perspective. At the time when Vod acquired Mannesmann for a whopping 190billion, the following were the libor rates a the time. They managed to service that debt then without issues. It's all about the cash flow and vod got tons of it coming their and rising.
https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/libor/european-euro/2000.aspx
I dont think the sale is a bad thing. As I stated below what VF needs is to be showing a strong strategy of debt paydown, especially now with cash getting more expensive...
From the outside, and on paper it looks as if Vodafone has made a similar deal to that achieved by Deutsche Telekom and Tele2 last year through the sale of Tmobile Netherlands.
Without like for like details, it's rather difficult to compare precisely, but based on net revenues, it looks as if Vodafone arrived at a slightly better negotiated deal.
Based on publicly available info:
Vodafone Hungary: Revenue$681 and negotiated sale price of $1.8billion ->2.64 times revenue
Tmobile Netherlands: Revenue$2billion and negotiated sale price of $5.1billion->2.55
The interesting part of this deal is that Vodafone Business Services which makes as much revenue (based on Business Services revenue line for Other regions in the annual report) is not part of this sale, allowing the group to "hedge" its position in the region.
Given that this is not a straight sale, I would not be surprised if there are additional beneficial kickbacks for Vodafone in terms of brand licensing and the rights to refusal to re-purchase the asset/entity at a later date.
Finally, Hungary has a population of almost half of that of the Netherlands. Therefore, and in theory, a lower price/revenue should be attainable during such negotiations as there is less addressable market to grow into. Also, the population is less wealthy, making it more difficult for such entities to improve margins through sale of higher end packages etc. Again, the genius in this deal is that they have kept the right to the brand and the Business Services right.
Based on the above sale price multiples (and rather imprecise valuation model) and Vod's 2022 annual report, the market should value the company at £45billion*2.5 (I take the lower end to be nice) => £90billion (inclusive of debt). This implies a stock price of ca 80p higher from the current levels.
At these levels, it's a screaming buy.
Here are some links for fact checks:
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220822/network-infrastructure/vodafone-to-sell-hungary-operations-to-4ig-state-for-1-8-billion
https://telecoms.com/511240/t-mobile-netherlands-sells-for-over-e5-billion/
I am underwater too after selling a small block back in 2017 at a nice profit. I then bought back in partly to generate income and partly because I THOUGHT I could see value. But what seems to dog this share is the mountain of debt it seems. I dont think about it too much now as it sits in SIPP Drawdown account and pays out divis. But I think it is a shame that a once great and valuable company has been so mis-managed. I think the rot started when they expensively bought C&W for little benefit that I could say and I am an ex telecoms industry professional...
"I did know of a Steve Wilson, but he worked in the North West"
Actually that's not quite right, I think he was based on the other side of the Pennines.