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Are these the delegated post your referring too. RE: Oil price.22 Feb 2021 10:42
Rich, I dont see UKOG being a listed company in 12 months time. I say that because:
BB = no further development, just a delay so that they dont have to stump up cash to plug and abandon site
Loxley = heavy delays, and even if approved will require £5m+ cash, the real gas prospects there are rubbish
HH = Kimmeridge is dead already. HH1 = may give a small profit for 12 months, HH2z = cash needed to convert to a water injector which is pointless as HH1 is nearly dead anyway given the water cut and depleted oil returns
IoW = Comedy central, no chance, just another dream from the Sandman
Turkey = LMAO, I'd rather back a 750-1 snooker player to win the Welsh Snooker Open, then again it happened last night, so miracle can happen.
UKOG will need £10m+ cash raised in the next 18 months. If anyone is dumb enough to not understand what that will do to the SP and the future of this company, then........
All in my own opinion. I'm keeping well away from this dead duck.
CynderLad
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 363
Price: 0.133
No Opinion
RE: OGA numbers22 Feb 2021 10:36
Ozzy will be claiming 500 bopd... LMAO. Seriously...
HH is dead, it's just a matter of time. Silent Steve will only keep it running to help raise capital to pay his wages. Turkey is the next honey pot trap.
At least with real honey pot traps there is something decent to look at.
CynderLad
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 363
Price: 0.135
No Opinion
RE: CEO Red Flag04 Feb 2021 16:00
Ozzy, I see that your talents are extensive.
It's not just about profit, its about fairness.
I was pro-UKOG and had a plan to invest across 3 to 4 phases. I did plenty of research, and on the surface there were many positives.
But then you dig a little deeper and you see the reality; the company publishes half truths, minimal data, and hides bad news away behind the facade of "pleased to announce".
If you used their approach in 18th century France it would be along the lines of:
"We are please to announce that the efforts to curtail matters has been completed and we see great potential in the near term upside"
whereas it would have been as follows:
"We chopped her head off for her pagan beliefs, beware to any who dare do similar, you'll be punished"
CynderLad
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 363
Price: 0.135
Strong Sell
CEO Red Flag04 Feb 2021 13:45
Red Flag indicators:
1) CEO does not own shares
2) CEO does not do interviews
3) CEO does not do investor calls
4) CEO does not broadcast AGM, instead you have to go through a horrible process
5) CEO does not publish recording of AGM
6) CEO uses language like "smell the oil" "big cojonas" "train leaving the station"
7) CEO is always "pleased to announce" in RNS's, whilst burying bad news
8) CEO covers up the real truths through publishing very small amounts of real data.
Can I make it to 10? You bet I can
9) CEO refuses to update web-site with latest
ZYX098
As far as I know they have not submitted a FDP for the Kimmeridge.
I agree with ZYX098. I've had my last 3 posts deleted, despite none of them breaking any rules. I guess the ramper crowd just don't like to see the hard reality that I put out there in my posts.
Penguins,
My apologies, I missed this yesterday.
Of course they won't - lenders will always do their own analysis, but it will use the data in the CPR for a base.
They will use a comprehensive risk matrix (which will include the competency of the current management team....) to decide if and under what terms they would lend the money.
Generally the higher the perceived risk, the higher the interest rate they will demand.
I am quietly confident that HH can be made profitable just from Portland production in the long run, but it needs cash spent on converting HH-2z to a water injector and the drilling & completion of HH-3. In that respect, I think the P2 reserves (which is usually what an RBL facility would use) would be sufficient.
I'd really like to know (and, of course, the silence from UKOG has been deafening) why they have not focused more on getting production from the Kimmeridge at HH, including why HH-1 was not re-completed as a dual Portland / Kimmeridge producer during the recent W/O.
As for the rest of their prospect inventory in the UK, they won't see any cash generation (even if they are economic discoveries) from those for another 3-4 years by the time all the approvals work their way through the byzantine planning system and the appeal(s) to the PI once SCC Councillors have rejected the plans.
Like you, I am sceptical about Turkey. Especially due to the total lack of information on progress & plans from UKOG, while they quote production figures from a field that isn't the most relevant offset.
IMHO, the management teams focus should have been solely to get their flagship field on production properly, including sorting out the water cut issue and drilling the additional well. This is what the £5 Million SHOULD have been used for (and they still haven't said where & when that money is coming from - although we all have a pretty good idea).
Instead of which, they completely took their eye off the ball and spent valuable time & scarce resources on Turkey - which even if it is a successful discovery (and the wording of the RNS will require VERY careful scrutiny) - will not be cash generative until early next year; cash that will have to go to funding the remaining Turkey work program.
So even if Turkey is wildly successful, I don't see any cash being repatriated back to UKOG until at least 2023 and possibly later, depending upon the PSC rules in Turkey.
Could they raise more than £5 Million by means of a share placing? TBH, I doubt they could raise even half that, so where is the rest of the money required for Turkey going to come from?
And where is ALL the money for the proposed UK work program going to come from?
ZYX,
Lenders don't just accept the word of the company or even their consultants. Given the issues would they lend £20mm against a field with a single production well and an apparently tricky reservoir, so even if the money were ring fenced for further wells at HH there is no guarantee of success or significantly better overall production. I think they would pass.
Even if the above passed muster if it were based on NPV is there any certainty that the P1 reserves would be sufficient?
In the 2018 CPR the the recoverable oil in the downside case for production from a single Portland well was less than 300,000bbls - this had a production profile better than the apparent HH-1 production (in year 2 an average of 170bopd).
Things may change with water injection but until that's trialed it's an unknown.
"according to Angus, the market in RBL finance is not what it was and the minimum ticket size for RBL finance is now $20m."
Doesn't matter Ocelot - they don't have a CPR and they don't have enough production for RBL - Igas manage it tho'
Well mr chortle, there's no need for you to be here then.....IS THERE.
Zyx098. The original stated plan was to start a cashflow chain reaction....but unfortunately ( due to a lot of bad luck ) ....the didn't get a " first project " success....as you know, that's the reason we are now in Turkey.....good luck to all holders.....ignore the trolls and the "well researched" XR batallion
Point taken, ZYX098, and, in itself, your post is quite encouraging.
But, given all of the current uncertainties, I must confess I am relieved UKOG has no financial debt at the present time.
Hi Ocelot,
Even if the CPR was at the lower end of the current estimates for OOIP, recovery factor and $/bbl for HH, that should still be more than enough to cover a $20 Million RBL.
Profit from HH production should then cover the ongoing interest payments.
The issue will be paying back the $20 Million if everything else comes up as well as anticipated by the "XR Swampies" on this board...
Live and breathe Ukog. Get out and do something different. If you believe then invest. If not invest elsewhere.
First there is Horse Hill where UKOG has failed to commission a CPR that we have repeatedly been told will enable RBL rather than dilution, alhough planning to do so (twice)...
--------------------
I've pointed this out before, Penguins, but I will point it out again:
according to Angus, the market in RBL finance is not what it was and the minimum ticket size for RBL finance is now $20m.
Penguin, and what was the reason for that manic rant.......oh I remember......to save us all from buying into a failing company.....oh and also so you can trade the spikes...............you seem to be getting paranoid and desperate....... "B R E A T H"
It would be great if those who were so positive about the company would give a fact based description of these numerous and sizeable assets that UKOG has yet to monetise.
First there is Horse Hill where UKOG has failed to commission a CPR that we have repeatedly been told will enable RBL rather than dilution, alhough planning to do so (twice).. Production expected of 362 bopd from the HH-1 Portland, and 2 to 3 times that from the horizontal. Neither has happened. They now propose 2 further wells at HH but with little cashflow to finance them, nor a full understanding of the reservoir (Technical work is ongoing to further characterise the Portland reservoir's delivery mechanisms and, in particular, the prevalence and role of the natural fracturing within the Portland section) and whilst still characteriseing the fracture system, which could d.rapidly deliver injected water back to the production well they also propose to convert HH-2z to inject produced water from HH-1.
Otherwise they have 3 appraisals of discoveries that have already been appraised - Loxleey, Arreton and Basur/ Resan. These are respectively: appraising the Godley Bridge gas discovery to the west of the site. Discovered in the 80's it has not been developed, the previous appraisaL wells were unsuccessful; appraising an oil show and small gas 'blow' in Arreton-2; appraising a well test in Turkey in the 60's that flowed oil at high rates but only for 6 hours, the government departmental report at the time cited water production as the reason for stopping the test.
So 5 wells planned, plus a major workover to HH-2z, cash perhaps to partially fund the initial work programme at Basur/Resan, little production at present and no mention by UKOG of anything but figures of OIP and recoverable resources, but not production rates that determines cashflow / payback (or next well funding).
Unlike wildcat drilling where it's reasonable to hope for a significant find based on knowledge, but also luck, these are appraisals where hydrocarbon shows are almost a certainty, but knowledge of the reservoirs in production is also known. Even HH has, despite initial flows, conformed to the norm of low flows and water production of wells,in the Weald.
UKOG don't say what results they expect from the proposed appraisals but I suspect it isn't what many hope.
Reflecting on the discussions about HH in 2018/ 2019 some posters were convinced the planning permission would be uprated as even the initial estimates from tanker movements of a maximum of 3,500bopd was less than their expectations as it did not match number of wells times expected flows from horizontals RNS'd by UKOG - somewhere between 4,320 and 6480 bopd (6 x 720 to 1080).